America isn’t the only one racking up huge national debts to prop up their economies . . . and there’s the danger!
James Lyman BSAE, BSEE, MSSM
As the debates mount over passing a third stimulus bill to counter the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, we are thinking only in terms of America and her mounting debt. Already, the virus has caused our debt to increase beyond the debt incurred in fighting World War II, in terms of percent of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). At the end of the war, there was great concerns about how America was ever going to pay off this massive debt, most expecting the traditional recession to follow peace. But the war had created massive new technologies and hence massive new markets that resulted in a post war economic boom, and therefore we were able to pay off the debt. No one anticipated the booming economic times, nor considered the effects of technologies on the economy, nor the pent up consumer demand and savings from the war effort.
After the war ended, all the new technology businesses were creating 40% of the new jobs, but over the years that percentage steadily declined until by the turn of century, it was at zero. And technology creation of new jobs has remained at zero since then. Therefore, with a debt now larger than the World War II debt, there’s serious questions of how we are going to ever pay it off and will it eventually pull our economy down, because there’s no signs of a long term booming economy this time. However, we are not alone in this little boat, with its gunwales sitting so low in the water.
Many other countries have also amassed huge national debts trying to avoid the collapse of their economies from the coronavirus, as huge chunks of their labor force are made idle and businesses fold up. Countries have given their citizens stimulus checks, such as Hong Kong ($1,280 equivalent per adult), Japan ($930 per adult) and Singapore ($422 per adult). South Korea’s government sent $820 to families in the bottom 70% of income brackets. Our neighbor Canada has given $1,400 per month, for up to four months, to anyone who lost income after the virus hit. Costa Rica gave $220 in monthly aid to anyone losing work.
The European nations largely avoided the one-time payments instead increasing funding for social services to meet the needs of those most impacted, while many counties enhanced unemployment offerings. Others, such as the Netherlands and Denmark, did their version of Paycheck Protection Program with assistance for companies that kept employees on the payroll. All have also vastly increased their national debts leaving the question of just how they are going to pay it off . . . and how they can avoid being pulled down by that debt? While we are preoccupied with only our debt and economic dangers, we neglect to notice the same dangers sitting right beside us, with these other countries economic stimulus threatening to pull their economies down.
A few years before the pandemic, the EU (European Union) dealt with the massive debts of Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal whose potential economic collapse could have conceivably pull the whole EU economy down. The Union had to take drastic measures and enforce strict economic reforms to stabilize the EU economies to prevent a disastrous collapse of one. A disaster that could then collapse the economies of the EU, one by one, like dominoes standing on end, close to each other. It was a dangerous situation that most Americans were unaware of. That same dominoes situation has repeated itself with the virus, but this time many more dominoes (nations) near each other, where if just one should fall over, others would be knocked over with a cascading of all those dominoes falling.
Like a cluster of houses sitting atop tall thin spindly poles, swaying back and forth in the wind to testify to the precariousness of the structures . . . and all close enough so if one set of leg-poles collapses, the top heavy structure (house) will most likely fall into another house and collapse it, then the next and next and next . . . until all have fallen. Those thin poles represent the ability of a nation to repay that debt, while the top heavy house is the debt itself, and that house is growing as we live and breath. So how much can that house grow before the weight causes the poles to break and it comes down? And remember, the house is also swaying back and forth from the wind blowing, which represents external forces and events such as another oil shortage, which always puts a heavy stress on a nation’s economy. And those external forces (wind) are completely unpredictable, seemingly coming at the most inopportune times.
And you’ve heard little to absolutely nothing about this risk to your future, a long term risk that could have very long term consequences. You see, displacement by technology tends to build up like drifting snow forming overhangs on a mountain side. At some time, that overhang is jarred loose and starts an avalanche of snow cascading down. The faltering of an economy has the same effect with the sluffing off of excess people, because there are advance technologies waiting in the wings, which can do the work of those people, thus leaving them out. Unfortunately, consumer based economics tend to have a preponderance of people who have little to nothing of real value and therefore not having anything to prevent them from being sluffed off the social-economic tree just like snow. Right now, only 62% of all Americans who are able work . . . are working. Any shift, change or jarring of the economy causes people to fall off the tree . . . and anymore it doesn’t need to be much of a jolt to the tree either.
So with people displaced and replaced by machines, will these stimulus efforts have any real effect? Even when these people do find a new job, it is lesser paying ones than those eliminated by the machines. Therefore, other than helping politicians get reelected, the stimulus package will most likely not have any real lasting effects, but may well lead to the dominoes crashing down to leave everyone with a massive problem that well may never be resolved.
A Corollary of War
A technologically advance people will displace a lesser people.
Which is what is actually happening now.
James Lyman BSAE, BSEE, MSSM
For ten years now, I have been studying and writing about the mechanics and driving forces of modern insurrections, in particular the threat of people losing their livelihood by technology displacement. AI (Artificial Intelligence) experts predict that in the next 15 to 25 years, half the jobs in America will disappear because of technology. This isn’t something new, for decades people have been pushed further and further down because of technology displacement. For years, politicians have bemoaned how wages of American workers are not increasing, the politicians being too poorly educated in a world of technology to appreciate that the low wages is because machines are doing the work. As seen on Wednesday, people are now ‘mad as hell’ and their fuze is growing dangerously short!
Watching the news and the ‘nonsensical dribble’ expounded in TV interviews shows just how ill prepared members of the Congress and governments are to address the problems now facing Americans. Just how very little real understanding senators and congressmen have of the problems so many Americans have and why they are so very angry! That’s also apparent by how you never hear a peep in the political discourse about obsolete people and how a preponderance of Americans have been, and continue to be, pushed out of the social economic system (the tent people) by technology- which is why so many of those Washington demonstrators are so angry.
While many of the Washington’s self appointed elitist condemn, denounce and even ridicule those angry people, when earlier they were surprisingly quiet about the riots of ANTIFA and BLM, showing how they’ve grossly failed to understand that those groups are actually one and the same as those Washington rioters. They are all people being pushed out of the social economic system . . . pushed out of the world they were born into and belonged to, pushed out the same way as the Native American’s were two centuries ago. Pushed out by an advanced technology people only to be left out in the cold. This is indicative of the quality and caliber of the people sent to govern us. Just as the Indian’s were very angry over being pushed out of their world, the demonstrators this last year are just as angry and filled with resolve to push back.
The bulk of the people in Congress are lawyers or political science studies, which I consider to be just a watered down lawyer. Reading the law is the education of John Adams, Thomas Jefferson and Abraham Lincoln. Reading the law is the education of the 16th, 17th and the 18th centuries, and that’s the crux of the problem! We have these 18th century people charged with leading us into the 21st century, but it is simply beyond their abilities. Indeed, most can’t ‘solve’ their way out of a wet paper bag, they are so poorly educated.
The gun control proposals made by many in Congress is proof positive of just how technologically backwards and behind so many of them are. The most primitive technology still prevalent in the world, and they seriously suggest they can actually control and limit it. The gun problem is a world problem with one gun for every four humans, and that’s because the manufacturing of guns is such a low level technology. Just like alcoholic beverages and elicit drugs, being unable to control the demand means the technology cannot be controlled. Another example is the ridiculously long bills the Congress passes, recent examples being the health reform act (Obama Care) with about 2,700 pages, and the stimulus bill with almost 6,000 pages. Both are indicative how little real thought was given to the problems, just a room filled with lawyers writing up a preponderance of legalese for other lawyers to litigate later.
This deficiency isn’t something new, for on the day of his retirement (1987), Speaker Tip O’Neill (a Democrat) stood on the steps of the Capital and warned about those ‘sound biters’, the new generation of politicians who were very skilled at using the news media for their political careers … and very skilled at little else. And everything he tried to warn us about has come true. We don’t have problem solvers to govern us, instead we have entertainers, celebrities and personalities, and recent history shows how very deficient they are at addressing the problems Americans face. With members of Congress vying for TV camera time to whine and complain about the state of the people, who they have been so instrumental in creating by their non-performance, it’s obvious that reform is needed, indeed necessary.
When asked what needs to be done about obsolescence of people and their displacement by technology, my answer is always the same:
‘Until you have a functioning government, you’re going to do absolutely NOTHING!’
To reform the government means creating an environment conducive to get the quality and caliber of people needed to address the obsolescence and displacement of Americans. That change means the adoption of four constitutional amendments, which are:
The Four Constitutional Amendments
1) A line item veto by the President of appropriation bills. 2) Term limitations for congressmen (5 terms) and senators (2 terms). 3) An amendment forbidding anyone to participate in any election, in coin or in kind, for which they cannot qualify to vote in. 4) The house and senate to have the power to fire any federal employee by a simple majority vote, with no presidential veto.
An expanded description of these four amendments, as well as other articles about the displacement of Americans and their obsolescence by technology, can be found on my website www.peopleobsolete.com in both html and .pdf formats, which can be printed out on paper.
Despite all the condemnation and complaining of what happened at the Capital, nothing will be done with the people who presently govern us. The necessary balance for a modern government to function must be restored, and that means those four amendments. Otherwise, the real problems driving the street violence in America will only continue to grow and spread, irrespective what their political persuasion or believes may be. To solve the problem, the ‘forcing function’ of being pushed out of America must be addressed, and that means having the kind of people with the education and intellectual skills necessary to analyze and resolve problems . . . people who can come up with real viable solutions instead of the proverbial BS and sound bites that also cultivates the same dysfunctional state of the Forth Estate. To be able to create more than just illusions or images of ‘no problems’ or ‘problems solved’.
But the present situation presents the American people with the opportunity to get those amendments adopted. The present Washington environment, that has produced this and other recent riots by the negligence of Congress, is the swamp that President Trump promised and tried to drain, but without any actual structural changes, permanent draining is not possible. No amount of complaining or political rhetoric in front of television cameras is going to quell the anger which has been building for so many years.
So who’s to blamed for the DC riot? The Congress for failing to be the ‘Congress’ . . . for failing to do their job, for failing to work the problem! So . . .
It is only going to get worst!
Y’all Know The Vibes…….
Podcast links below:
By: Economic & Finance Report
Image Credit: Forbes.com
By: Economic & Finance Report
Jack Ma’s Ant Group IPO was supposed to be going public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange recently, but has been halted by the Chinese government for disagreements between the Chinese government and Jack Ma (AliBaba/Ant Group’s co founder).
The IPO was listed to raise over $37 billion dollars USD, making it the biggest share sale in the history of the global stock markets. Saudi Arabia’s Aramco holds the biggest share offering title; currently with its share offering last December 2019, raking 29.4 billion dollars USD. The spectators will have to wait and see, if or when the IPO will go public -SB
Image Credit: MoneyControl.com
By: Economic & Finance Report
The recent civil unrest for the last two months in several cities, vividly shows the process of social mitosis at work.
James Lyman BSAE, BSEE, MSSM
The murder of George Floyd on the 25th of May, sparked protests against police brutality, police racism, and lack of police accountability across the nation. Now, more than sixty days later, not only do those protest continue, but they are gaining in momentum and intensity, spreading to other cities. Why? Young people continue to come out and protest, then near riot, to show their disapproval. WHY? Because many young people are dissatisfied with the government and with society, so the murder has triggered a release of frustration and anger, which is focused on the government and its institutions.
We are seeing a process called social mitosis, a process where social groups begin pulling apart, as people strive to go in different directions, resulting in a pulling force against each other. This is illustrated by the figure on the left, with ‘a’ the first stage where we have the α (alpha) people, who are a fairly homogeneous uniform society living in harmony. But the people begin wanting different things in life, wanting to go in different directions to pursue their wants, as seen in ‘b’. This ‘going’ in different directions causes tension as the α people pull against themselves, so sub-societies begin to form, becoming the αΓ (alpha-gamma) and the αΩ (alpha-omega) people. This pulling apart puts more stress between them which in turn further aggravates and polarizes the people.
Left unattended, this pulling away or polarizing continues with the sub-cultures becoming more pronounced resulting in further separation until the subcultures become very distinct entities. In ‘c’ we now see the Γα (gamma-alpha) and the Ωα (omega-alpha) people, the alpha ‘α’ subscript indicating there is still much commonality between the people, but still they are now becoming very distinct cultures with different believes, wants and desires in life. There are increasing stresses between the two cultures over what the shared environment will look like, what it will be like. As this pulling apart continues, the commonality decreases to the point where there is now two separate distinct cultures as represented by ‘d’, there now being the Γ (gamma) and the Ω (omega) people with distinct cultures each wanting to shed the other people and be on their own, charting their own course in the world without having to consider the other people.
Then finally, there is a point . . . an event, which causes an actual breaking apart of these two people at ‘e’, and that breaking often results in revolution or insurrection and the violence of war. A war to determine who will dominate and who will be submissive. A war that is the worst kind . . . one usually of savagery and brutality. War that the participants stumble blindly into unaware just what they are getting into, drawn by the illusion of independence, romantic images coupled with a nonsensical understanding of revolution. The present social mitosis started in the sixties when I was a boy, with the emergence of the counter culture. The hippies and flower children who were disenfranchised with the society they lived in and yearning for a world of their own.
They had become alienated in their home land.
Slowly, but surely the splitting process progressed, in perceivably divisions which widened into separate cultures. While over the decades, this mitosis process has waxed and waned, with the division between people becoming deeper and deeper, and people often migrating to different areas of the country to be with their own. Technology also drives this division, with people failing to advance and therefore be a part of an advance technological society. People become aliens . . . people who fail to advance technologically, so they become aliens in their own homeland. Technology also caused further stress as people became obsolete, they being replaced by technology and machines. People began the long slide downwards from one lesser paying job to even lesser paying jobs, thus leaving people even more alienated and dissatisfied. Add to this is the constant pushing out of the‘social – economic’ system by technology, the same exact thing that happened to the Native Americans over a century ago. A corollary of war-
A technologically advance people will displace a lesser people.
Although the murder of George Floyd is what triggered this unrest, it’s now a reaction to this displacement, the unleashing of pent-up anger, fear, frustration, aggravation and rejection of the world they don’t understand, yet are trying to live in. The young people of America just don’t see any future for themselves with 20 to 25% of college graduates unemployed or underemployed. They want a world of their own, a world where they can belong, to be comfortable and happy in. They don’t feel they are a part of the advance technology world they reject, so they want out. The actions you see in today’s protest is a manifestation of social mitosis. But right now, there isn’t any real direction or goals to their actions, just expressions of anger and frustration through violence.
For any government, the police is the face of that government, consequently when people are dissatisfied with the performance of a government, the people lash out at the police, often blindly. But so far, the actions and violence have been to gratify feelings of anger, lacking any real direction or goal. For the ‘rupture’ to occur, there is a need for a viable political philosophy, a philosophy that people are willing to risk life, limb, liberty and property to pursue. That sets a goal for the people to work towards to fulfill their dreams and desires. That’s what causes stage ‘e’, the actual breakaway of the two societies . . . nearly always with violence or revolution. And that’s when it all turns into one ungodly nightmarish mess for all.
With a closer look at these actions and attitude, many will consider these ‘protest’ to be unproductive, even foolish, but what you are also seeing is the analytical, intellectual, and problem solving skill levels of the protesters, those skills they have for the twenty-first century, which as we might guess, isn’t particularly strong. This is why businesses are continually seeking technologies which allows them to avoid such people as workers. This further pushes them out of the social-economic system. Other than being a consumer, these people have very little of value to offer for the twenty-first century.
All that is missing . . . to have a conflagration, is that viable political philosophy.
My book, “America’s Slide into Domestic Terrorism” in the series ‘Technology Monograms for Law Enforcement’, (available on Amazon.com) explains the three principle forces now pushing so many people, especially the young people (millennials and generation-Z) out of society. It includes the basic theory of war and therefore how those three forces, through social mitosis, can lead ultimately to wide spread domestic terrorism in America.
In all forms of insurrection, the police are the first and foremost targets for the insurrectionist, we’ve seen that recently in Iraq and Afghanistan, for when the Allies started establishing police forces, the insurrectionist immediately attacked the police trying to foil their establishment. The police is what translates the intangible academic power of the state into real tangible power. Without the police, the rest of the government ceases to effectively exist and therefore becomes impotent. But with a collapsed government, innumerable little groups and individuals come out of the woodwork convinced they should be the one who governs. Quickly, they turn to violence trying to impose themselves on the people, thus bringing civil war as we saw with the Arab Spring recently.
Bottom line- what we are witnessing in cities like Portland cannot to be casually dismissed one way or another. Nor will simply repressing and dispersing the demonstrators solve the problem. Only by addressing the problems of obsolete people and alienation of people can any real progress be made. And that means having a functioning government rather than image makers!
WORK THE PROBLEM!!!