24 November 2020

1) The European Union warned that the United Kingdom has not moved sufficiently to overcome the main obstacles to a post-Brexit trade deal. One major point of contention is the fishing rights for EU fishermen in having access to U.K. fishing waters. Late on Thursday, the leaders of France, Belgium and the Netherlands called on the EU to make contingency plans for the failure of a deal in time. Officials on both sides privately voiced cautious optimism that a deal could be concluded as soon as next week, with talks now at a delicate stage. On fishing, the two sides still can’t agree on how much of the British catch the EU boats will be allocated, while the two sides also haven’t agreed on cross retaliation clauses, the official said.

2) Great Britain and Canada have reach a trade deal in a Brexit giving Prime Minister Johnson a boost. U.K. has agreed with Canada to maintain the trading conditions it has from their European Union membership and to begin talks on a broader deal that would pave the way for even closer links with Britain. Canada is Britain’s 12th largest trading partner. The two countries will begin negotiations next year to expand their commercial agreements to cover digital trade, the environment and women’s economic empowerment. Without the new agreement, Britain and Canada face tariffs on trade from the first of the year, when the Brexit transition period ends. Britain is Canada’s third-largest export market after the U.S. and China.

3) The CDC has released a report that counties in Kansas who complied with a mask mandate saw a decrease in cases compared to counties that didn’t. Those counties that opted out of mandatory wearing of masks saw an increase by 100%. While experts have said that masks are a key part of limiting the virus, their usage has been the subject political debate for months. The same declines has been seen in 15 states and in Washington DC. Covid-19 infections decreased in 24 counties with mask mandates but increased in 81 counties that opted out of the order. This translates into a 6% in counties with a mandate compared to an increase of 100% in counties where masks were not mandated. There have been 136,861 confirmed cases of coroniavirus throughout the state of Kansas, which have resulted in at least 1,306 deaths. With more than 35% of tests administered coming back positive, three times higher than the 10% rate nationally.
4) Stock market closings for – 23 NOV 20:

Dow 29,591.27 up by 327.79
Nasdaq 11,880.63 up by 25.66
S&P 500 3,577.59 up by 20.05

10 Year Yield: up at 0.86%

Oil: up at $42.84

6 November 2020

1) This year’s elections are revealing some interesting things about the new young voters and the society they want. Voters are backing legalized drugs, higher wages and voting restrictions. In Oregon, they have eliminated all criminal penalties for possession of hard drugs. Four other states legalized recreational marijuana. Voters continue to support higher wages with minimum wage settings in states, with Florida raising their minimum to $15 an hour. Abortion encountered more restrictions on the state level. Several states adopted measures, including constitutional amendments, to limit voting rights to U.S. citizens only.

2) The White House task force is warning that new cases of Covid-19 are increasing ‘exponentially’ despite President Trump’s claims that the pandemic would vanish on November 4. Rising case numbers, hospitalizations, and deaths nationwide are causing the task force to sound dire warnings. Recommendations are 1) Do not gather without a mask with individuals living outside of your household, 2) Always wear a mask in public places and, 3) Stop gatherings beyond immediate household until number of cases and positive tests have decrease significantly. The task force is warning states and universities/colleges of the risks during the up coming holiday season and the increase risk of spreading of the virus. States with the highest number of new cases per 100,000 are North Dakota followed by South Dakota, Wisconsin, Montana, Wyoming, Iowa, Alaska, Nebraska, Utah, and Idaho. Vermont remains the state with the lowest number of new cases.

3) Renowned investor Warren Buffett’s (Berkshire Hathaway CEO) favorite market indicator nears record high, signaling stocks are overvalued and riskier than ever for investing. His indicator takes the total market capitalization of a country’s stocks and divides it by quarterly GDP in order to compare the stock market’s valuation to the size of the economy. Currently that’s 168% which signals a record disconnect between asset prices and the economy, and a warning to investors to exercise a great deal of caution towards equities as an asset class. The stock market has never been as expensive as it is today, and not only does this mean that forward returns will likely be exceptionally poor, it means that downside risk has also never been greater than it is today. This indicator also soared before the dot-com bubble burst and surged in the months leading up to the 2008 financial crisis.

4) Stock market closings for – 5 NOV 20:

Dow 28,390.18 up by 542.52
Nasdaq 11,890.93 up by 300.15
S&P 500 3,510.45 up by 67.01

10 Year Yield: up at 0.78%

Oil: down at $38.51