16 September 2020

1) A survey by Photonics and Harris Insights and Analytic, a market research company, has found that 35% of Americans would like to avoid traditional in-store shopping, another indication of how American consumerism is fundamentally changing. The traditional in-store sales are becoming less attractive to customers who are now less likely to browse. Retailing is responding by investing in new technologies and creating jobs to meet e-commerce. Now 37% of the fashion retailers are selling more through social media.

2) The aquatic-life theme park SeaWorld is laying off nearly 1,900 furloughed workers because of low attendance from the pandemic. These layoffs include 450 food service attendants, 270 park operation hosts, 121 performers and 18 senior trainers. SeaWorld furloughed 95% of its staff back in March, but long term success of the company has forced less optimistic forecast for the economic recovery time wise.

3) In the last six months, about 100,000 restaurants have had to close permanently as independently owned business struggle to make ends meet during the virus crisis. There are one in six restaurants across America that have closed in just a half a year. Another 40% of owners say it is unlikely their restaurant will still be in business six months from now. Presently, outdoor dining has allows many restaurants to maintain a sustainable revenue stream, but with winter approaching, much of this opportunity will disappear. Coronavirus restrictions limit the in-dinning to as little as 30% normal capacity, which means a drastic cut in sales and revenue to the point that many restaurants are unable to support themselves.

4) Stock market closings for – 15 SEP 20:

Dow 27,995.60 up 2.27
Nasdaq 11,190.32 up 133.67
S&P 500 3,401.20 up 17.66

10 Year Yield: up at 0.68%

Oil: down at $38.51

14 August 2020

1) This year’s hurricane season was already forecast to be a very active season, but now is going from bad to worst because of La Nina. The hurricane season was already on a record making pace, with the peak of the season coming in just a few more weeks. The possibility of the pacific having a La Nina, a state where the sea surface temperature becomes cooler than usual, is increasing in probability. This change in pacific weather patterns decreases the hurricane killing wind shear across the Atlantic, thus allowing more storms to form and strengthen. The Atlantic has already had 10 storms, which is the earliest number to occur by this date. Predictions are for as many as 25 storms forming, compared with the 2005 record of 28 storms including Hurricane Katrine. Additionally, a La Nina can spell cooler temperatures and storms across the north, with drier weather in the southern U.S., all having significant economic impact on America.

2) Again, the first time jobless claims have dropped, this time it’s the first time below 1 million since last March. Last week, 963,000 people filed for first time unemployment benefits, the first time in five months claims were below 1 million. Although the decline is a positive sign, the economic job situation still remains critical with 15.5 million people still unemployed, but still people are returning back to work. The employment problem still remains worst than for the Great Recession just a decade ago, which had lower jobless claims. It took nearly five years for the peak in 2009 until 2014 to return to what they were before the Great Recession.

3) Oil prices dropped as a result of IEA’s (International Energy Agency) forecasts for global oil demand. This reduction is in part a result of the slowdown in air travel. Price of oil has been creeping up coming to a five month high on Wednesday, but then fell as much as 1.3%, from the forecast of a drop in consumption for every quarter to the end of the year. The forecast also signals a shift in the recovery toward a stalling of economic growth. There remains an inventory overhang that persists, which the oil industry continues to work down.

4) Stock market closings for – 13 AUG 20:

Dow 27,896.72 down 80.12
Nasdaq 11,042.50 up 30.27
S&P 500 3,373.43 down 6.92

10 Year Yield: up at 0.72%

Oil: down at $42.34

19 May 2020

1) The managing director Kristalina Georgieva of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) says the Fund is likely to revise downward its forecast of a 3% contraction of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for 2020. In turn, this will most likely cause a revision of the IMF’s forecast for a partial recovery of 5.8% in 2021. This means a longer time for a full economic recovery from the virus crisis. The IMF had forecasted that the business closures to slow the virus would throw the world into the deepest recession since the 1930’s Great Depression.

2) Gold markets have risen to their highest in more than seven years, a result of the Federal Reserve saying stocks and asset prices could suffer a significant decline as a result of the coronavirus crisis. The economic recovery could go to the end of 2021, depending on the arrival of an effective vaccine. Owning gold is considered to be a safe haven in times of economic turmoil, able to retain its value when other assets are sinking in value. Other precious metals such as silver, platinum and palladium are also experiencing a swing upward in price, but since these are commodities, their value may drop in a slower economy and reduced industrial demand.

3) The price of oil is above $30 a barrel for the first time in two months as U.S. and other country producers continue to cut production in order to restore the balance of the oil market. The world wide shut downs from the virus has drastically reduced the demand for oil world wide, with the world’s storage capacity quickly filling to maximum capacity, and for a time, producers having to pay to have their oil production removed. While the price of oil is still too low to salvage the shale oil (fracking) business in America, it still bodes well for the U.S. and world economies. Nevertheless, expectations are it will be well into the next year for the oil markets to be fully restored. Oil futures contracts that are due in June, show few signs of a resulting plunge in oil prices as when the May contracts came due and investors had to pay others to take their oil away.

4) Stock market closings for – 18 MAY 20:

Dow 24,597.37 up 911.95
Nasdaq 9,234.83 up 220.27
S&P 500 2,953.91 up 90.21

10 Year Yield: up at 0.74%

Oil: up at $32.21

8 April 20

1) The dizzying swings in the stock market has made a mockery of efforts to forecast the market. This phenomena graphically reveals the high degree of uncertainty prevalent in the world today. One day, markets are up by one or two thousand points, next day down by the same amount as people are unable to decide if the economy will grow or contract. Market experts are unable to decide if the economic downturn is a short impulse from the coronavirus, or a long term event covering months or even years. One major component in seeing the economic future is the question of how many small businesses will fail during the shutdown, most from lack of cash. A high number of failures could drag the rest of businesses down.

2) American colleges and universities are also suffering financial problems from the coronavirus shutdown. Institutions are scrambling to close deep budget holes from loss of tuition and fees, refunds for student housing, dining and parking from students forced to leave school. Some have had a huge share of their reserves wiped out with some schools are facing financial collapse. Some face a double loss with their reserves in the stock market. To add to college’s worry, is the question of how many students will return this fall if the shut down is over. Furthermore, surveys show significant number of highschool seniors planning to take a year off before continuing their education, another loss of revenues for colleges.

3) Because of the virus shut down, demand for gasoline in America has collapsed. Sales are down 46.5% from last year. The same sharp decline in gasoline sales has been seen in Europe with demand for gasoline down as much as 85%. With big box retailers slowing and automakers shutting down, a slowdown is expected in the next few weeks.

4) Stock market closings for – 7 APR 20:

Dow 22,653.86 down 26.13
Nasdaq 7,887.26 down 25.98
S&P 500 2,659.41 down 4.27

10 Year Yield: up at 0.74%

Oil: down at $24.26

10 April 2019

1) The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has reduced their forecasted for world economic growth from 3.5% to 3.3%, which is the third reduction since last October. It forecasted 2.3% growth for the US economy, as well as reduced growth forecast for Germany and Great Britain.

2) Walmart is rolling out thousands of robots for use in their retail stores across America. These robots will automatically scan shelves and clean floors. With a million employees, Walmart is seeking ways to keep labor cost down.

3) Bank of America is raising it’s minimum wage to $20 an hour over the next two years. Starting the first of May, the rate will increase to $17 per hour. The bank has 205,000 employees.

4) 9 APR 19 Stock market closings: Markets pulled down by industrial sector.

Dow             26,150.58    down    190.44
Nasdaq          7,909.28    down      44.61
S&P 500         2,878.20    down      17.57

10 Year Yield:    down   at    2.50%

Oil:    up   at    $64.24

SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGHOUT THE GLOBE… NEXT YEAR 2016….

economic forecast 2015

By: Economic & Finance Report

The world continues to slow down economically, and will continue until 2016 as well. Stagnation seems to be currently occuring for the rest of 2015 and this will also hinder 2016 prospects. More developed countries such as the US, Great Britain, Germany, have been able to weather the storm and hold up recovery efforts being influenced world wide.

However OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development) indicates that future outlook seems bleek for the most part for the next couple of years because of the slowdown of the economy in Japan, and other eurozone/european countries. They instituted this as being ” puzzles and uncertanties” 

The OECD maintained that “prospect of higher interest rates in the US and UK had exposed the vulnerability of emerging market economies to higher borrowing costs.”  

China and Brazil happen to be two of the hardest countries hit by the  economic slowdown. -SB