16 October 2019

1) The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has made another cut to its 2019 global growth forecast, the fifth in a row. The reason given is a broad deceleration of the world’s largest economies with trade tensions undermining the expansion. Their projections of world economic growth has gone from a high of 3.9%, down to 3.5%, then to 3.4%, to 3.2% and finally to 3%.

2) The low mortgage rates has caused an epic housing shortage. The average mortgage rate for 30 year fixed was over 5% last November and stayed above 4.5%, but now is around 3.5%. Inventory trends in the mid-market indicate lower levels of inventory in early 2020. Housing starts have been moving up slowly, but mostly in the higher end homes, leaving the ‘starter home’ market depleted.

3) The production and delivery of Harley-Davidson’s new LiveWire electric motorcycle has been halted with the discovery of a problem with its charging mechanism. There was a non-standard condition in the final quality check, which halted deliveries of LiveWire bikes, however customers can continue riding their LiveWare motor cycles. Additional testing and analysis is progressing well.

4) Stock market closings for – 15 OCT 19:

Dow         27,024.80    up    237.44
Nasdaq      8,148.71    up    100.06
S&P 500     2,995.68    up       29.53

10 Year Yield:     up   at    1.77%

Oil:    down   at    $52.93

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