15 October 2020

1) The much feared Diablo winds, along with its low humidity, will bring critical fire weather to Northern California through Friday, increasing the risks of wild fires. There are widespread red flag fire warnings for Northen California above San Francisco because of extremely dry, gusty, north to northeast winds which will bring critical fire conditions. With the relative humidity down into the single digits and teens, winds could reach about 45 mph, with gust up to 55 mph, both conditions very conducive to rapidly spread wild fires. The Diablo winds are much like the Santa Ana winds so familiar to Southern Californians.
2) Boeing’s troubles continue with no new orders for jets and more 737 MAX cancellations as the companies crisis continues. There were more orders for the 373 MAX canceled in September with delivery of only 11 total aircraft to customers, which is less than half the number from the same month a year ago. Furthermore, the quality flaws on the 787 Dreamliner continue to hamper efforts to develop an alternative cash cow to the 737 MAX. The major source of Boeing’s problems is the coronavirus pandemic, which continues to hurt the demand for jets, for Boeing as well as its rival Airbus, and this is a factor that neither aircraft manufacture has any control over.
3) The prices for crude oil are rising with the dollar’s decline, which in turn is boosting appeal of commodities priced in dollars. There are signs of oil demand increasing in Asia, which is helping lift the overall outlook for oil consumption. The company Rogsheng Petrochemical of Singapore is buying up oil futures to run its expanded refinery operation in Zhejiang this quarter. The outlook for refineries output remain precarious, with refining margins severely depressed for this time of the year. Refineries typically need a spread of more than $10 a barrel to make it profitable to process crude oil.
4) Stock market closings for – 14 OCT 20:
Dow 28,514.00 down 165.81
Nasdaq 11,768.73 down 95.17
S&P 500 3,488.67 down 23.26
10 Year Yield: unchanged at 0.72%
Oil: up at $41.22

13 October 2020

1) More bad news for the airline business with another expected huge round of losses coming. The second quarter was the worst financial hit in the history of the airline business, and the third quarter won’t be much better. The airlines reported a second quarter combined losses of $12 billion dollars with revenues down 86% for the previous year. Analysts are forecasting a $10 billion dollar lost for the third quarter. The airlines did reduce cost by trimming expenditures, reducing labor as employees took buyouts and early retirement packages. Also, a modest pickup in travel during the summer has help with increased revenues, but forecast are for sales to be down 75% in the third quarter.

2) Oil prices fell the most in a week because the Gulf of Mexico production is set to resume and Libya is reopening its largest oil field. The hurricane had shut down about 92% of oil production in the Gulf, while at the same time Libya’s largest field will reach its daily capacity of almost 300,000 barrels in ten days. World demand for oil crude has dropped with refineries operating near minimum capacity.

3) The third major opioid makers Mallinckrodt Pic has become the third major manufacture of opioid to go bankrupt after being swamped by claims with respect to profiting from the U.S. opioid epidemic. The drug company filed for Chapter 11 after getting creditors and claimants to agree on a restructuring plan. This plan hands over ownership to bondholders, wipes out shareholders and sets aside $1.6 billion dollars to resolve all its opioid litigation. Current shareholders will most likely get nothing, with stock prices in the penny range for most of the year. The Chapter 11 filing estimates liabilities of $1 billion to $10 billion dollars and assets in the same range.

4) Stock market closings for – 12 OCT 20:

Dow 28,837.52 up 250.62
Nasdaq 11,876.26 up 296.32
S&P 500 3,534.22 up 57.09

10 Year Yield: unchanged at 0.78%

Oil: down at $39.44

8 October 2020

1) Despite the economic failure of the first supersonic airliner, the French-British Concorde, there are now attempts to revitalize the supersonic airline service. Boom Supersonic has unveiled its first demonstrator aircraft called the X-B1, which is scheduled to start flight testing next year. The demonstrator is planned as a commercial stepping stone to an actual commercial supersonic airliner to transverse the Atlantic ocean in about three and a half hours- about half the present flight time. Plans called for supersonic jets that are quieter and more fuel efficient than the Concorde. Some might consider a supersonic airliner to be an optimistic endeavor considering the concerns over the airline’s industry future over the next several years.

2) Like other restaurant chains in decline, Ruby Tuesday’s decline was several years in the making, accelerated by the pandemic. Amidst speculation by industry insiders, the renowned Ruby Tuesday has filed for bankruptcy. By April, Ruby Tuesday had closed about 30% of its 470 restaurants, and with the virus crisis, restaurants continued closing. It has closed 300 restaurants in the last three years, 186 this year alone, while amassing a $43 million dollar debt plus $19 million dollars owed to landlords and vendors. The company is filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy and will continue operating about 230 restaurants in its bid to survive. Ruby Tuesday’s decline in sales was due to a major shift in consumer attention from casual dine-in to fast food and fast casual options.

3) The troubled aircraft manufacture Boeing Aircraft cuts their forecast for airplane demand due to the pandemic. Over the next decade, Boeing now expects deliveries of 18,350 commercial aircraft, which is down from its previous forecast by 10.7%. The coronavirus crisis is expected to create minimal demand for new jets during the next few years. Boeing still expects to deliver 43,110 commercial aircraft over the next 20 years, a forecast down only slightly from its previous forecast of 44,040 and so will be able to make up for lost sales in the years after the next decade.

4) Stock market closings for – 7 OCT 20:

Dow 28,303.46 up 530.70
Nasdaq 11,364.60 up +210.00
S&P 500 3,419.45 up 58.50

10 Year Yield: up at 0.78%

Oil: up at $40.06

28 May 2020

1) The aircraft manufacture Boeing is laying off almost 12,000 workers this week, a result of the coronavirus crisis impact on the aircraft company. Boeing, which is the largest exporter in the U.S., is trimming its workforce by about 10% which include international locations. It is anticipated the airline industry will take some years to recover with air travel dropping a whopping 95% because of the virus, and major airlines canceling the majority of their domestic flights while suspending nearly all international flights. The company suffered a major set back with its 737 MAX grounding that resulted in near record number of order cancellations for passenger jets with zero new orders in April. This has been Boeing’s worst year in decades.

2) The discount home goods retailer Tuesday Morning has filed for bankruptcy, a result of the prolong store closings from Covid-19. The lost revenues created an insurmountable financial hurdle in a company that was thriving before the pandemic. The chain is closing 230 of its nearly 700 US stores across America. The first phase of closures of 130 stores will begin this summer. This is in line with another home goods retailer, Pier 1, which filed for bankruptcy in February, another casualty of the virus.

3) More than one in every six young workers have stopped working because of the coronavirus pandemic world wide. There are fears that young workers (15 to 28 years old) could face the inability to get proper training or gain access to jobs long after the pandemic ends, maybe even deep into their careers. Of those still working, about 23% report reduction in the number of hours they work. For 178 million young workers around the world, more than 40% are in the food services and hospitality industries, which is the hardest hit sector from the virus. Three fourths of the young workers are in informal jobs or casual labor. In addition, many companies in the U.S. are cutting salaries of those who still have a job, trying to remain in business, which will reduce discretionary income that will further slow economic recovery.

4) Stock market closings for – 27 MAY 20:

Dow 25,548.27 up 553.16
Nasdaq 9,412.36 up 72.14
S&P 500 3,036.13 up 44.367

10 Year Yield: down at 0.68%

Oil: down at $32.22

27 May 2020

1) The local economies of oil country are being hit hard by the shale oil bust as royalties from oil pumped have shrank to near insignificance. While the oil bust has erased tens of thousands of jobs, while drying up local tax revenues, it has also greatly reduced the inflow of money to local economies from the royalties being paid out. There are about 12 million U.S. mineral owners collecting royalties for oil and gas extracted from their land. Royalties range from 12.5% to 25% of the value of gas and oil pumped, with the average oil land owner collecting about $500 dollars a month.

2) The coronavirus pandemic is causing more economic troubles with increased prices at supermarkets. The virus caused unprecedented demand, the shutdown of some food manufacturing facilities and the need for more labor to assemble orders for pickup and delivery are adding to costs of the grocery business. Since supermarket’s get all their money from the checkout lanes, this translates into higher grocery prices. Some say the grocery business will never be the same again. Furthermore, with demand driven so high by the pandemic, stores have no need to offer incentives and sales. This demand has been felt up the supply chain further increasing cost. One note, the pickup and delivery business of groceries has been catapulted ahead bringing automation to the grocery business closer.

3) The New York Stock Exchange has started a phased reopening of its trading floor, having been closed for two months because of the pandemic crisis. The NYSE has been limited to all electronic trading since March 23 in a measure to prevent the spread of the virus. But there will be fewer floor brokers, and they will wear face masks and do social distancing. Nevertheless, many brokers will continue to do their jobs remotely with electronics, and stay away from the trading floor. Another example of how American business has been changed by the need to keep people spaced apart, even isolated in order to halt the spread of the virus.

4) Stock market closings for – 26 MAY 20:

Dow 24,995.11 up 529.95
Nasdaq 9,340.22 up 15.63
S&P 500 2,991.77 up 36.32

10 Year Yield: up at 0.70%

Oil: up at $34.18

18 May 2020

1) The federal government has warned that the financial sector faces significant vulnerabilities because of the coronavirus pandemic. Both businesses and households are struggling with fragile finances and will be for the foreseeable future. So far, the banking system has withstood the initial downturn, but there are significant risk if the virus crisis proves to be lengthy and/or more sever than hoped for. The financial stress will continue to build if the crisis persists from households and businesses being deprived of wages and revenues. No sectors would be immune from the risk they face from default on debt, being forced to sell off assets, bankruptcy or having value of assets dwindled. Forceful early interventions have been effective in resolving liquidity stresses. There are fears that what might start out as a cash crunch could spiral into something worse, that few if any parts of the economy are safe.

2) The retail industry has been devastated by the coronavirus crisis with April sales diving down 16.4% (Manufacturing is also down by 13.7%) with major retailers such as J.C. Penny, J Crew and Neiman Marcus filing for bankruptcy recently. However, discount retail chains such as Dollar General and Aldi seem to be thriving as consumers cut back on discretionary spending while continuing to spend on food and household essentials. The Dollar style stores are gaining because of their low prices and close proximity to customers, with people buying things they have run out of between their larger routine shopping trips. In recent years, the Dollar style stores have significantly increased their number of stores thereby enabling them to capture more retail sales from the traditional retailers.

3) Some are predicting that the pandemic has permanently changed the auto industry, with some automakers made stronger while others are left too weak to survive. The pressure from the electric automobiles will become stronger with fewer conventional automakers able to make the transition. There are fears that people have discovered they need to travel much less, that they can get a surprisingly amount done from home. This translates into lower demand for automobiles. Demand for new cars was expected to be low before the pandemic, now things are expected to get very brutal for survival of some automakers.

4) Stock market closings for – 15 MAY 20:

Dow 23,685.42 up 60.08
Nasdaq 9,014.56 up 70.84
S&P 500 2,863.70 up 11.20

10 Year Yield: up at 0.64%

Oil: up at $29.78

15 May 2020

1) There are growing fears of another economic bomb about to go off. A popping of the housing bubble, much like the 2008 bubble collapse of the housing market, may happen as early as July. Last time, the collapse of the housing market played out over four years, but for the pandemic, the rate could be much faster, as is being seen with the stock market. Home sales have been languishing, especially with the treat of the virus and people reluctant to let strangers tour their homes with possible infections. It is estimated that 15% of homeowners will fall behind on their mortgages and this would mean more delinquencies than during the Great Depression. This in turn is causing a tightening of lending standards which could continue even after the crisis subsides. All this makes for a bubble waiting to burst.

2) Delta Air Lines Inc. has announced they plan to retire their fleet of eighteen Boeing 777 jumbo jets, and will replace them with Airbus SE aircraft. This constitutes another major financial blow to the beleaguered aircraft manufacture struggling with their 737 MAX troubles from over a year ago. Delta attributes the early retirement of their 777 fleet to the pandemic impact and the need to economize with newer fuel efficient aircraft.

3) Growing fears of a slow recovery is beginning to show cracks in the markets as investor’s anticipation of a quick recovery of the economy fades. For weeks, the hopes that the massive stimulus of $3 trillion dollars would spur a relatively quick recovery later in the year, coupled with a hot rebound of the stock market despite the massive numbers of layoffs, but now hope is fading. The growing economic uncertainty of just how many people can restart their lives amid the uncertainty of controlling the virus, plus the dangers of opening up too early, is causing investors to rethink their view of how the economy will fair in the next few months, even the next few years.

4) Stock market closings for – 14 MAY 20:

Dow 23,625.34 up 377.37
Nasdaq 8,943.72 up 80.55
S&P 500 2,852.50 up 32.50

10 Year Yield: down at 0.62%

Oil: up at $27.98

5 May 2020

1) Apparel retailer J. Crew is filing for bankruptcy, with other struggling retailers expected to succumb this year too, big retailer names like Sears and J.C. Penny. J Crew is considered to be the first retail casualty of the pandemic with others expected to quickly follow. The pandemic has caused numerous stores to be closed, laying off hundreds of thousands of employees and losing most of their sales. The big retail stores were struggling before the virus hit, with people backing away from consumerism and now after the coronavirus shutdown, people are spending little other than for groceries and daily essentials. With further declining retail revenues, more stores will close with more layoffs. Furthermore, Americans’ appetite and ability to shop continues to decline, so it looks very dismal for a major segment of the American economy, which in turn will be a burden on other segments of the economy continually pulling the rest down.

2) The service sector of the economy is also experiencing troubles in what appears to be an emerging new economy for America. Gold’s Gym International is seeking bankruptcy protection as it struggles with debt after the prolong shutdown from the virus. With the shrinking of people’s disposable income, that is the money they have left after essential spending like food, housing and transportation, the non essential businesses of the service economy are finding it harder to survive.

3) General Electric is eliminating as many as 13,000 jobs in its jet engine business, another casualty of the coronavirus devastation to the aviation segment of the economy. With airline manufactures, such as Boeing building fewer airliners, there is less demand for new jet engines. This means a 25% reduction on GE’s aviation work force with little near future likelihood of those jobs returning, indeed if the recession deepens, more jobs may be lost. Like Boeing, GE aviation was having troubles before the virus hit.

4) Stock market closings for – 4 MAY 20:

Dow 23,749.76 up 26.07
Nasdaq 8,710.72 up 105.77
S&P 500 2,842.74 up 12.03

10 Year Yield: down at 0.64%

Oil: up at $21.33

15 April 2020

1) A second round of layoffs is starting, the first being workers at restaurants, malls and hotels, most of them lower skill levels, but now it’s higher skilled jobs threatened. Those higher skilled jobs had seemed secure, however the ‘work at home’ people are seeing layoffs and furloughs to add to the unemployed numbers. Jobs such as corporate lawyers, government workers and managers are seeing the pink slip with a threat of a prolonged labor downturn in 2007-09 recession. Economist anticipated that 14.4 million jobs will be lost in coming months, raising the unemployment rate to 13% for June. Already, 17 million Americans have been laid off, with estimates of 27.9 million jobs to be lost. The information businesses are being hit, with revenues not sufficient to pay electric bills for servers and computers to host web sites. Even large law firms catering to the corporate world are having significant layoffs. State and local governments employ 20 million people, but as tax revenues drop, they too are faced with reducing employees. Analysts consider it will take 5 1/2 years for the labor market to recover.

2) Boeing, the airline manufacture, is further suffering business setbacks with the cancellation of orders for 150 jets in March. This is a result of a near total halt in demand for air travel because of the coronavirus pandemic. There are now nearly 14,000 jets parked by airlines around the world. Boeing did report new orders for 31 aircraft in March. While Boeing still has a backlog of orders for about 5,000 jets, there are fears that delivery will be deferred which will further add to Boeing’s financial woes.

3) The IMF (International Monetary Fund) is predicting that the Great Lockdown recession will be the worst in almost a century, warning the world economy’s contraction and recovery will be worst than anticipated. The IMF estimates the global gross domestic product will shrink 3% this year, compared to a 3.3% growth in January. This will dwarf the 0.1% contraction in the 2009 financial crisis. These forecast dashing any hopes for a V-shaped economic rebound after the virus subsides, with a commutative loss of global GDP of this and next year, of about $9 trillion dollars. Economic damage is driven by how long the virus remains a major threat.

4) Stock market closings for – 14 APR 20:

Dow 23,949.76 up 558.99
Nasdaq 8,515.74 up 323.32
S&P 500 2,846.06 up 84.43

10 Year Yield: unchanged at 0.75%

Oil: down at $20.82

10 January 2020

1) HP’s board has rejected Xerox’s $33 billion dollar takeover bid, for the same reason as Xerox’s previous offer, that the proposal significantly undervalues HP. Xerox first moved to acquire HP in November, but was rejected because HP stock holders would lose much of their value in the company. HP is a 2015 spinoff of giant Hewlett-Packard who has a market value of $300 billion dollars that dwarfs Xerox’s value of 7.7 billion dollars.

2) Mack Trucks, the manufacturer of large commercial trucks, announced plans to layoff 305 employees, which is about 13% of their payroll. After two years of high volumes of production, marked demand has dropped so the company must adapt to the lower demand. There are expectations of the truck market in America being down 30% this next year.

3) The American consumer continues to shun the traditional big department stores. Despite the monster holiday shopping season, America’s biggest department stores still lost money. This is a trend that has been in progress for several years as typified by Sears’ decline. Department stores such as JCPenny, Kohl’s and Macy’s continue to decline with dropping sales and store closings. Consumers are now going to big box stores and the internet commerce to save money, signaling a fundamental change in American consumerism.

4) Stock market closings for – 9 SEP 20:

Dow              28,956.90    up    211.81
Nasdaq           9,203.43    up      74.18
S&P 500          3,274.70    up      21.65

10 Year Yield:    down   at    1.86%

Oil:    down   at    $59.59