15 February 2021

1) The Colt Manufacturing Company is ending 175 years as an American gunmaker with the purchase by the Czech firearms company CZG. Colt, a financially troubled company, that with its new Czech owner, is now expected to generate $500 million in revenue. Colt was an early innovator of interchangeable parts on the assembly line, and helped to define the growth of precision manufacturing. In addition to guns, Colt made gauges, sewing machines, printing presses and other products. The manufacture became the first school of applied mechanics in the United States, and was a fountainhead of mass production. But Colt filed for bankruptcy protection in June 2015, despite the booming sales in small arms. Like so many other manufactures, Colt was plagued by the high cost of capitalization and low return on investment that is systemic to all types of manufacturing. CZG acquires significant production capacity in the United States and Canada and substantially expand its global customer base.

2) American steelmakers’ reluctance to resume full production after pandemic shutdowns are threatening to undercut President Biden’s push to reshoring domestic industries. Producers shut furnaces down in response to falling demand from the coronavirus and now are operating well below pre-pandemic levels, even as recovering economies and tight supplies drive prices higher. The benchmark price for American steel is at an all-time high. Companies have kept blast furnaces idled on expectations that prices are likely to recede at some point, which would squeeze margins and potentially force expensive shutdowns again at those furnaces. But customers in industries from automobiles to appliances to machinery say they can’t get enough metal. This undermines the idea of supporting U.S. manufacturing. American plants are running at about 75% of their maximum potential, well down from the peak of 83% in 2019.

3) President Biden has ambitious plans when it comes to addressing climate change, by eliminating net carbon emissions from the energy sector by 2035, and the entire U.S. economy by 2050. Such a big shift away from the burning of oil, gas and coal will put many Americans out of work. Biden claims the net effect of switching from fossil fuels to clean energy in the coming years will result in more jobs, not fewer. In his first few weeks in office, Biden has taken a number of actions on climate change such as rejoining the Paris climate agreement and directing agencies to procure zero-emission vehicles, while pausing on existing leases for fossil fuel development on public lands. The Trump administration had promised to bring back jobs in areas reliant on fossil, but jobs still declined.

4) Stock market closings for – 12 FEB 21:

Dow 31,458.40 up by 27.70
Nasdaq 14,095.47 up by 69.70
S&P 500 3,934.83 up by 18.45

10 Year Yield: up at 1.20%

Oil: up at $59.73

2 February 2021

1) In October and November Intermodal, shipping carriers rejected U.S. agricultural export containers worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Instead they are sending empty containers back to China to be filled with more profitable Chinese exports. These refusals came during the peak season for agriculture exports. The matter is being investigated to see whether the carriers refusing U.S. export cargo violated the Shipping Act. This act makes it unlawful for carriers to unreasonably refuse to deal with or negotiate, to boycott or take any other concerted action resulting in an unreasonable refusal to deal, or engage in conduct that unreasonably restricts the use of intermodal services. Carriers rejected an estimated 177,938 containers known as TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) in October and November.

2) There are three Pacific military flashpoints that could shape Biden’s entire China strategy these next four years. The suggestion that the departure of President Trump from Washington would ease US-China tensions are being discounted. China has flown more than two dozen combat aircraft near Taiwan and have passed a law which allows China’s coast guard to fire on foreign vessels. Meanwhile, the US Navy has sent an aircraft carrier strike group into the South China Sea. China could use large-scale military exercises near Taiwan or in the South China Sea, or stopping foreign vessels in the name of enforcing Chinese maritime regulations. The flashpoints are: 1) The South China Sea- China has built up tiny reefs and sandbars into man-made artificial islands, fortified with missiles, runways and weapons systems. 2) Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait- Despite 75 years as an independent nation, China claims Taiwan as belonging to China, and has repeatedly stated its intention to bring Taiwan under its control, with force if necessary. 3) Japan- Strongly aligned with the U.S. There is contention between Japan and China over Senkakus, an uninhabited rocky island chain, 1,200 miles southwest of Tokyo.

3) Experts predict that Phoenix Arizona may become uninhabitable by the end of this century. The Southwest is facing a reckoning from decades of human development, coupled with rising global temperatures from carbon emissions, which means that many major cities in the Southwest may become uninhabitable for humans this century. They are concerned that cities like Phoenix may have temperatures above 100 degrees for a third of the year, including well after dark.

4) Stock market closings for – 1 FEB 21:

Dow 30,211.91 up by 229.29
Nasdaq 13,403.39 up by 332.70
S&P 500 3,773.86 up by 59.62

10 Year Yield: down at 1.08%

Oil: up at $53.61

15 January 2021

1) As Joe Biden approaches taking office, the question of a third stimulus check is already open, but one point is the amount, either $2,000 or $1,400. With $600 checks already being dispersed, the question expands to having the second and third payments combined to total of up to $2,600. In turn , Biden may propose a third stimulus check for $1,400 per eligible adult, for a total of $2,000 between the two payments. But America isn’t the only nation amassing huge national debts with cash back programs to its citizens. From small third world nations to the most advance western nations, a large number of nations have stimulus payments in an attempt to salvage their economies, several paying more per person than America. There has been little to no concern of how these national debts will be paid back, leaving a growing instability of the world economic system. If one of these indebted nations should start collapsing, the other economies could then be pulled down and collapse too. Like a gaggle of standing dominos, one falls, knocks down more, who in turn knocks down more until the whole comes tumbling down resulting in disaster.

2) Even with majorities in the house and senate, the new president Biden faces a hard time getting his Covid relief bill passed. This could further be hindered if the Senate becomes embroiled in an impeachment trial of President Trump and the confirmation of Biden’s Cabinet in the early days of his administration. Typically, a new president has his first hundred days, the honeymoon time, when the Congress is most willing to support and pass the legislation the new president proposes. But continuing actions and debates against Trump will eat into that honeymoon, plus distracting by the press away from the president, leaving Biden ‘holding the bag – possibly empty’.

3) China joins the rush to driverless cars, with the Chinese startup company WeRide raising $310 million dollars in funding as the race to robot cars heats up. This funding and new investors will give the company the strategic resources to commercialize self-driving technology. The company says it will launch trial operations for their Mini Robobuses immediately. WeRide valuation is estimated to top $5 billion. Other companies including search giant Baidu, start-up AutoX and ride-hailing firm Didi, who are competing in the same space.

4) Stock market closings for – 14 JAN 21:
Dow 30,991.52 down by 68.95
Nasdaq 13,112.64 down by 16.31
S&P 500 3,795.54 down by 14.30
10 Year Yield: up at 1.13%
Oil: up at $53.80

12 January 2021

1) The cryptocurrency Bitcoin plummets the most since March as a stronger dollar and investor nerves strip off nearly $140 billion in the cryptocurrency market cap, renewing fears that Bitcoin may be a bubble waiting to burst. But Bitcoin is still up roughly 89% over the past month. Other cryptocurrency coins, such as XRP and Litecoin, have shed about 18% each. Bitcoin hit a record high last week above $41,000, driven by the combination a weaker dollar, economic optimism, and a wave of bullish sentiment toward cryptocurrencies as big-name investors and investment banks touted a potential for huge gains this year, with the stronger dollar and higher bond yields triggering a plunge in Bitcoin and gold prices.

2) Trump has been permanently barred from the platform Twitter, resulting in$5 billion dollars in losses in market value, with Twitter stock dropping after the barring of the President. Twitter stated they permanently suspended the account due to the risk of further incitement of violence. Trump, who had about 88 million followers, generated enormous publicity for the platform with his controversial and incendiary tweets over the past six years. As a result, Twitter’s stock fell as much as 12% on Monday thus the decline of $5 billion dollars from Twitter’s market capitalization. Investors are worried that the Trump ban will erode interest in the platform and lead to boycotts among those who see the decision as politically motivated and a way to silence a major conservative voice.

3) Fears are growing that a bigger stimulus may be seen as the ‘peak of this bubble’ resulting in a market correction or worst. Some think that with the Democrats set to take control of both the House and Senate, perhaps President-elect Joe Biden will be less likely to spook markets with tax ambitions. Biden has promised $2,000 stimulus checks if the Senate turned blue, so now the question is what will happen? For millions of Americans, it’s been a painful waiting game already, they having subsisted with minimum money since losing their jobs from the pandemic. Joe Biden made the promise that if Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock turned the senate blue that would end the block in Washington and allow the $2,000 stimulus checks to immediately go out the door to people who are in real trouble.

4) Stock market closings for – 11 JAN 21:

Dow 31,008.69 down by 89.28
Nasdaq 13,036.43 down by 165.54
S&P 500 3,799.61 down by 25.07

10 Year Yield: up at 1.13%

Oil: down at $52.18

7 January 2021

1) Chinese stocks listed in the U.S., including China Telecom Corp. and Pinduoduo Inc., fell on the prospect of further American sanctions. This decline was led by a group of Chinese telecommunications stocks after the New York Stock Exchange said it will delist three companies to comply with a U.S. executive order. While the companies are mostly traded in Asia, their stocks are also traded domestically. But an order from President Trump barred American investments in China-based firms that are affiliated with the military. However, there is now talk of the order being modified or even rescinded.

2) Reportedly, Chinese cities are going dark as the country faces shortages of coal, which is a major Australian export, as authorities limit power usage, citing the shortage of coal. Analysts said prices of the commodity in the country have shot up due to the reported crunch with some tying the shortages and blackouts to the unofficial ban on Australian coal. In turn, prices of the commodity have shot up due to the reported crunch. The reports also follow rising trade tensions between Beijing and Canberra, leading some analysts to tie the coal shortages and blackouts to the unofficial ban on Australian coal. Relations between the two nations have soured since last year because Australia supported an international inquiry into China’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Coal is just one in a growing list of Australian goods that China is targeting. China is the world’s largest coal consumer and its greatest source of coal imports was Australia.

3) Shale oil needs more than $50 a barrel to be profitable, something that is now a possibility because of Saudi Arabia’s pledge for a big supply cut in their oil production. But Joe Biden wants to ban new fracking in New Mexico, an area that has emerged as the ‘go-to’ spot for drillers desperate to squeeze as much crude from the ground without bleeding cash. The price was above $50 before the pandemic sent oil markets crashing, forcing over 40 explorers into bankrupt. It will take at least three months for shale producers to ramp up production, because that would involve decisions on new drilling and getting well-completion crews together, which puts their operations well into the new Biden administration.

4) Stock market closings for – 6 JAN 21:
Dow 30,829.40 up by 437.80
Nasdaq 12,740.79 down by 78.17
S&P 500 3,748.14 up by 21.28
10 Year Yield: up at 1.04%
Oil: up at $50.48

6 January 2021

1) With the ravages of the new coronavirus, Los Angeles County has been so overwhelmed it is running out of oxygen. Arizona now has the nation’s highest rate of coronavirus hospitalizations. In the Atlanta area, nearly every major hospital is almost full, prompting state officials to reopen a field hospital for the third time. This last week, new deaths and cases have increased by more than 20 percent, for a total of more than 355,000 fatalities and 21 million infections. But the toll on hospitals is more critical. Southern California is running low on ICU beds, ventilators and morgue space. But the greatest shortage is oxygen. The sheer number of patients has placed such a strain on oxygen systems that some hospitals are struggling to provide adequate air pressure and flow into patients’ lungs. But expanding the oxygen supply doesn’t solve the problems, because of the volume being pumped, some of the pipes start to freeze up. Also you start running out of oxygen tanks that patients need to be discharged and sent home. As cases increase ICU beds get full, ER gets backed up, ambulances have nowhere to take patients. There’s severe, chronic staffing shortages, while elective surgeries get canceled so the ability to care simply degrades.

2) It is being reported that President Trump privately admits his defeat, but he wants to continue brawling for attention, so Trump has kept up a flurry of activities to pressure other Republicans to aid his effort to block Biden’s presidency. But one factor political pundits are overlooking is the state of the economy that Biden will inherit. Many are expecting the economy to make a strong quick recovery, but with the whole western economies going into massive deep debt, the likelihood of sever economic problems, that are worst than the 2008 downturn, looms large. The chances of Bidens new administration turning things around for America are very, very slim. And when there are economic problems, the President gets blamed even if it’s not his fault, so the new President will soon be in trouble with the people turning against him. Whether by design or accident, the charges of election fraud will most likely become an ‘albatross’ tied around Biden’s neck. For while the people now want to ignored the questions of voter fraud and corruption, as public opinion diminishes, that ‘albatross’ will hang heavy pulling his presidency down.

3) Communist China continues its backslide into a repressive totalitarian regime with the arrest of dozens of Hong Kong democracy activists and opposition politicians for violating the city’s controversial national security law, in what appears to be the largest roundup yet under the China imposed legislation. The Chinese justify the law which bands subversion, terrorism, secession and collusion with foreign forces, but the law has mainly been used against non-violent political opponents and dissidents.

4) Stock market closings for – 5 JAN 21

Dow 30,391.60 up by 167.71
Nasdaq 12,818.96 up by 120.51
S&P 500 3,726.86 up by 26.21

10 Year Yield: up at 0.96%

Oil: up at $49.81

31 December 2020

1) President Donald Trump’s efforts for a $2,000 Covid-19 relief check for each American has run into a road block, which the Senate Republicans have made unsurmountable, even as pressure builds to approve the bigger checks. A growing number of Republicans oppose more spending, despite bucking Trump. The showdown over the $2,000 checks has thrown Congress into a chaotic year-end session which is preventing action on overturning Trump’s veto on a sweeping defense bill. McConnell is trying to provide an off ramp for GOP senators to avoid a tough vote. Republicans are split between those who align with Trump’s populist instincts and those who adhere to what had been more traditional conservative views against government spending. New legislation is proposing linking the president’s demand for bigger checks with repealing law suit protections for tech companies like Facebook or Twitter , as well as establishment of a bipartisan commission to review the 2020 presidential election for possible fraud.

2) There is another casualty of the coronavirus pandemic . . . the ringing in of the new year at Times Square in New York, which in the past draws millions of visitors to Midtown, but not this year. This year, the visitors are out, the traditional dropping of the crystal orb will be viewed only on television. There will still be the night performances, with disco diva Gloria Gaynor singing her “I Will Survive”, a rather appropriate anthem for 2020. Other cities across the globe are also curbing their traditional celebrations of the new year.

3) The new strain of Covid-19 virus has been discovered in Colorado and California which alarms scientists because it is a more contagious Covid-19 strain. It is expected that the new strain will quickly spread to other states. In San Diego County a 30-year-old man in the county, with no travel history, has tested positive for the new strain on Tuesday. Because there is no travel history, this is not an isolated case in San Diego County. Furthermore, on Tuesday, Southern California’s Intensive Care Unit availability is now at zero percent. Meanwhile, Colorado reported its first known case of the variant on Tuesday too, and was investigating a second possible case Wednesday. Both of the cases are National Guard soldiers who were deployed to support staffing at a nursing home in Simla, Colorado, outside Denver. While the new variant continues to spread fast in the UK, it is more contagious than previously identified strains but not more severe. The English virus spreads at a rate of 70% compared with other variants in the U.K.

4) Stock market closings for – 30 DEC 20:
Dow 30,409.56 up by 73.89
Nasdaq 12,870.00 up by 19.78
S&P 500 3,732.04 up by 5.00
10 Year Yield: down at 0.93%
Oil: up at $48.30

30 December 2020

1) With President Trump signing the COVID-19 relief bill into law, millions of Americans will again have pandemic-related benefits. The COVID-19 relief bill gives those who depend on unemployment benefits some amount of relief. In addition to enhancing unemployment benefits, there is also a $600 check for every adult making less than $75,000 a year.

2) To add to the economic woes of many Americans this year, for a second consecutive week, a massive winter storm is sweeping across the north and east. A new storm system brought heavy rain, gusty winds and thunderstorms to Southern California and will move across the country this week. The new storm system will move across the US during New Year’s Eve leaving heavy snow, winds, severe thunderstorms.

3) With President Trump’s veto of the annual military bill, the House voted to override President Trump’s veto, mustering bipartisan support to enact the legislation over the president’s objections and handing him a rare legislative rebuke in the final days of his presidency. The defense bill also takes steps to slow or block President Trump’s draw down of American troops from Afghanistan. The 322 to 87 vote is the first time a chamber of Congress has overridden one of Trump’s vetoes. The bill also authorizes a pay raise for the nation’s troops. However, the Senate, which must also get a two-thirds vote of its chamber to override vetoes, will take up the legislation later in the week. But the vote is complicated by another separate bill that would increase the size of individual stimulus checks to $2,000. For 60 years, lawmakers have used the annual military bill to bring home wins to their constituents. So far, the Congress has failed to over ride any of President Trump’s vetoes. But for the Senate to gain the two thirds vote to over ride, twelve Republicans must cross over. Other provisions of the bill are new benefits for tens of thousands of Vietnam-era veterans who were exposed to Agent Orange, a 3% increase in pay for service members and a boost in hazardous duty incentive pay. The bill also requires all federal officers enforcing crowd control at protests and demonstrations to identify themselves and their agencies, as well as directing the Pentagon to rename military bases which are named after Confederate leaders.

4) Stock market closings for – 29 DEC 20:

Dow 30,335.67 down by 68.30
Nasdaq 12,850.22 down by 49.20
S&P 500 3,727.04 down by 8.32

10 Year Yield: unchanged at 0.93%

Oil: up at $48.25

24 December 2020

1) Just went everyone thought the second stimulus was a done deal, President Trump has made vague threats not to pass it. The President is asking Congress to amend the bill that has passed both chambers, with Trump decrying the bill’s $600 payments and its failure to properly support small businesses. He is now urging lawmakers to boost the $600 check to $2,000 for every American earning less than $75,000 per year. Furthermore, a veto would leave the threat of a government shutdown and expiring Covid-19 protections looming over the holiday season. The President said the bill contains too many provisions unrelated to the pandemic.

2) Threats of a second stimulus bill veto was reinforced with Trump’s veto of the defense bill, in part because of the requirement for renaming bases honoring Confederates and restrictions on the executive’s ability to bring troops home from overseas. Both the House and the Senate are already making plans for a post-Christmas session during which lawmakers plan to override the veto. Congress has until noon on January 3 to do so.

3) There are emerging new signs of economic distress. With the fate of a federal aid package suddenly thrown into doubt by President Trump, economic data on Wednesday shows why the help is so desperately needed. Personal income fell in November for the second straight month, and consumer spending declined for the first time since April, with a worsening pandemic continuing to take a toll on the U.S. economy. Applications for unemployment benefits remained high last week and have risen since early November. Experts know that things are going to get worse, the question is how much more worse. Many economists view direct payments to people as among the least effective measures, because much of the money goes to households that don’t need it. Spending on restaurants and hotels fell with transportation, clothing and gasoline also in declined. The decline in spending is spilling over into the labor market, with about 869,000 people filing new claims for state jobless benefits last week. The relief bill is smaller than many economists say is needed to carry the economy through the pandemic and ensure a robust recovery.

4) Stock market closings for – 23 DEC 20:

Dow 30,129.83 up by 114.32
Nasdaq 12,771.11 down by 36.80
S&P 500 3,690.01 up by 2.75

10 Year Yield: 0.96%

Oil: up at $48.06

21 December 2020

1) There is a move in congress, lead by Rep. Ayanna Pressley, urging President-elect Joe Biden to cancel up to $50,000 per person in federal student debt. Supporters of the move consider the student debt crisis as a racial and economic justice issue encompasses the kind of bold, high-impact policy that the broad and diverse coalition, which elected Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are expecting them to deliver. The mounting student debt problem has 45 million Americans owing a total of about $1.6 trillion dollars in student loans, with one in 10 loans in delinquency or default. The typical monthly payment is between $200 and $299, with minorities experiencing the most difficulties with student debt.

2) A massive heavy snow storm continues to cross the Northeast as the season’s first major winter storm slowly moves off the East Coast, leaving as much as 4 feet of snow. There has been hundreds of vehicle crashes with some of them being deadly. The storm has left more than 50,000 customers without electricity mainly in Virginia and New York state. The interior of Pennsylvania and New York state took the brunt of the storm, the storm setting a new two-day snowfall record in Binghamton. The previous record was recorded March 2017 with 35.3 inches of snow. Airlines have canceled more than 600 flights because of the snow.

3) President Trump has issued an executive order prohibiting Americans from investing in companies tied to China’s military complex. U.S. investors are bared from buying into 35 Chinese companies the Pentagon has classified as aiding China’s defense, intelligence and security apparatus. The executive order has sparked sell offs of Chinese stocks and bonds, forced index firms to drop companies from marquee benchmarks, and pushed Wall Street to reassess risks from investing in China. There are questions at the state department whether the blacklist should include subsidiaries of the companies, or if affiliates should be included. Asset managers are now reaching out to the Biden transition team to glean how the new administration will interpret the executive order. Starting on January 11, U.S. investors are barred from the purchase or investment in stocks, with investors having until November 2021 to get rid of their Chinese securities.

4) Stock market closings for – 18 DEC 20:

Dow 30,179.05 down by 124.32
Nasdaq 12,755.64 down by 9.11
S&P 500 3,709.41 down by 13.07

10 Year Yield: up at 0.95%

Oil: up at $49.08