1) Experts are speculating on the interest rates going negative in the near future, something that President Trump wants. Negative interest rates have been a reality in the EU (European Union), with studies showing that investors do not significantly increase their equity holdings as interest rates decline. But when the rates go negative, they start increasing their equity holdings significantly. This in turn is a big boost to the stock market. Interest rates are an excellent predictor of long range growth potential, today’s level reflecting the markets expectation of sustained low future growth.
2) Larry Kudlow, the top White House economist, is calling for stimulate measures before a slowdown of the economy. Measures include tax breaks such as payroll tax holiday and deregulation of small businesses. This is in anticipation of growth in the second quarter worse than in the first, which shrank 4.8%. Additionally, he supports a second stimulus package to create incentives to grow in the medium and long term. Also more investment in infrastructure should be included.
3) After posting a massive first quarter loss, Boeing has announced they will slash staff and production of about 16,000 people or about 10% of its personnel. Demand for air travel evaporated because of the coronavirus, so Boeing is drastically scaling back production of the two widebody passenger jets, its 787 Dreamliner and the 777. Boeing lost $1.7 billion dollars, while shutting down its factories, because of the pandemic, added another $137 million dollar lost.
4) Stock market closings for – 29 APR 20:
Dow 24,633.86 up 532.31 Nasdaq 8,914.71 up 306.98 S&P 500 2,939.51 up 76.12
1) For the first time in six years, the U.S. trade deficit fell as the White House’s trade war with China curbed imports. The trade deficit dropped 1.7% to $616.8 billion dollars last year with steep decline in industrial materials and supplies, consumer goods and other goods. The trade deficit for goods with Mexico jumped to a record high of $101.8 billion dollars last year, with the European Union reaching an all time high of $177.9 billion dollars.
2) The Ford Motor Company is posting a$1.7 billion dollar loss and anticipates a weak forecast for 2020. General Motors is also reporting poor performance for 2019 and anticipates flat profits for 2020. Both Ford and GM’s troubles are in part from slaking sales in China, in particular with the economic slowdown in China from the coronavirus pandemic. The major competitor to the duet auto makers, Tesla, is suffering from the coronavirus closing of its Shanghai factory which builds its Model 3 sedans.
3) Macy’s, another major world renowned retailer, is experiencing the brick-and-mortar decline of other major traditional retailers. The chain is closing 125 of its stores, in addition to the 100 stores it has already closed, and cutting about 2,000 corporate jobs. Their strategy is to exit weaker shopping malls and focus towards opening smaller format stores in strip centers. But even with these changes, the future of Macy’s is abysmal. The company has lost market share in core categories such as apparel, as fewer shoppers take trips to malls, preferring on line shopping.
4) Stock market closings for – 5 FEB 20:
Dow 29,290.85 up 483.22 Nasdaq 9,508.68 up 40.71 S&P 500 3,334.69 up 37.10
1) The White House is considering putting limits on U.S. investment in China, which would aggravate the protracted trade dispute between the two largest economies in the world. Advisers are discussing ways to limit U.S. investors’ portfolio flows into China, including limiting all U.S. investment in China. One possible method being considered is to delist Chinese companies on the U.S. stock exchanges thereby limiting American’s exposure to the Chinese market.
2) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortex, the New York Representative, announced a comprehensive anti-poverty bill that would provide new protections for tenants, children, immigrants and other Americans who are increasingly vulnerable to the high cost of inequality. One part of the bill is a tenant rights bill which would significantly expand federal housing policy. This would include a cap on annual rent increases or rent control.
3) General Motors has reversed itself and reinstated health care benefits to its striking workers, as a result of sever criticism from politicians and social media. Normal procedure in strikes is for the cost of health care to shift from the company to the union. The strike of 49,000 GM workers has shut down 30 GM plants across the nation for nearly two weeks. The GM plant in Mexico has been forced to close due to parts shortages as a result of the strike.
4) Stock market closings for – 27 SEP 19:
Dow 26,820.25 down 70.87 Nasdaq 7,939.63 down 91.03 S&P 500 2,961.79 down 15.83
1) The electric car manufacturer Tesla has been getting significant revenues by selling credits to other car makers who need to offset sales of polluting vehicles. General Motors and Fiat-Chrysler disclosed that they have reached agreements to buy federal greenhouse gas credits from Tesla. These companies want to bank their green credits for use later when emission rules get tougher, especially if democrats regain the White House.
2) Bond yields are dropping at the fastest rate since th 2008 global financial crisis, in anticipation that the Federal reserve will cut interest rates to counter the fallout from the trade tensions. The two year Treasury yield has fallen for five straight days. This is likely to have damaging effects on business confidence as businesses become more concerned with future growth.
3) The U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell by more than 2 points in May, the lowest level since September 2009, 6 points over the last year. This index reflects a drop in new orders or postponement of orders due to the uncertainty of the economic future. Manufactures are having to hold selling prices lower because of diminished sales, which in turn is squeezing profits.
4) 3 JUN 19 Stock market closings:
Dow 24,819.78 up 4.74 Nasdaq 7,333.02 down 120.13 S&P 500 2,744.45 down 7.61
1) With just seven weeks remaining before Brexit, Scotland is warning of the looming consequences, but so far has been sidelined and ignored. Contend that Britain is not remotely prepared for exit and therefore calls for an extension, fearing a ‘crash out’ will be a catastrophe because EU rules touches every aspect of EU trade, and therefore will cause trade to come to a sudden halt.
2) White House economic adviser critiqued the Democratic tax proposals being pursued as being economically illiterate.
3) Car dealers are holding large numbers of unsold cars with sales expected to drop this year. This will put pressure on manufactures to cut car production and offer deep discounts to lower inventories.
4) 4 FEB 19 Stock market closings:
Dow 25,239.37 up 75.48 Nasdaq 7,347.54 up 83.67 S&P 500 2,724.87 up 18.34
Could a possible “trade war” be on the horizon, over Pres. Trump’s aluminum & steel tariffs? It could be the case says economic and international business negotiators.
Many economists have indicated that the tariffs imposed could be detrimental to the US economy, while others believe that the impact is minimal, because the tariffs Trump is planning to issue, will only cost American taxpayers a few cents more on the dollar, to support home grown/home based manufacturers, in the steel and aluminum industries.
Gary Cohen, White House director of the National Economic Council is against imposing a tariff on steel and aluminum, while Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and White House National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro, are for imposing the tariffs on steel and aluminum goods & products. –SB
Check out Businessman Bassey and his co host James Lymon & Kyle Harper, interviewing a prominent political science expert (Dr. Helmut Norpoth). He has predicted the last 5 presidential elections correctly and who has also indicated with his data & analytical model, Donald Trump will come out as being the next president of the United States of America.
*Special Side Note: The interview with Dr. Helmut Norpoth was taped a day before the elections. It was recorded on November 8, 2016 (Tuesday).
He was one of the few people who predicted a Trump victory, along with David Lauter from the USC/LA Times “DayBreak” Tracking Poll, and Professor Allan Lichtman of American University (Though in the coming days before the presidential election, Dr. Lichtman did double down on Trump victory).