15 August 2019

1) Fears are growing that the world is moving towards an economic crisis, based on signs from Washington and Wall Street, starting with President Trump’s retreat from adding new tariffs. The stock market rose over the news meaning Christmas had been saved for this year’s sales. But the bond market wasn’t as optimistic, the rates dropping indicating a lack of confidence in the future economy. Called an inverted yield curve, it signals investors expect a weak growth and lower inflation over the years.

2) The troubling signals from the bond market caused the stock markets to drop, with the Dow dropping 800 points to erase all of Tuesdays gains. Worried about the state of the economy, investors are rushing to long term safe haven assets, pushing the yield on 30 year Treasury bonds to a new record low. The Cboe Volatility Index jumped to a high of 22.

3) The financial problems plaguing Boeing aircraft from the 737 MAX grounding may delay or even cancel Boeing’s next airliner design, the 797. A mid-size airplane, the aviation industry expected Boeing would go ahead with a new design, but the sever loses from the 737 MAX are now casting doubt on that happening, especially if the world economy does deteriorate. The 797 is expected to be a long range jet seating about 250 passengers. The design would make extensive use of light weight composites giving good fuel economy and range. Additionally, engineering resources are being pulled away from the 797 to work the 737 MAX problem.

4) Stock market closings for – 14 AUG 19:

Dow           25,479.42    down    800.49
Nasdaq        7,773.94    down    242.42
S&P 500       2,840.60    down      85.72

10 Year Yield:    down   at    1.58%

Oil:    down   at    $54.95

6 August 2019

1) Stock markets fell sharply over new trade war moves with the Dow dropping over 700 points and the S&P and Nasdaq also sharply dropping too. Troubles renewed with China devaluating its currency, opening at seven yuan to the U.S. dollar. In return President Trump accused China of manipulating its currency which suggests the Chinese have abandoned all hopes of resolving the trade war with America, and instead are moving in another direction for the future. Reports are that China has asked state owned companies to suspend U.S. agriculture imports. A weaker Chinese currency gives them an unfair export advantage, and so can be used as a potent weapon in the trade war.

2) Fears continue to increase over a near future recession, with bond yields giving the highest alert since 2007. The 10-year notes sank on Monday to 1.74% with fears of it sinking to a low of 1.5%. This is further pressure for the feds to further cut interest rates to starve off a recession. There are further concerns about the trade war with China that America will move to let the dollar weaken to counter China’s devaluation. Wall Street’s VIX volatility index, also know as their ‘fear gage’ rose to 21.48, its highest level since May 9, with Asian markets also plummeting.

3) Huawei, China’s manufacture of smart phones, might release a phone running the HongMeng OS by the end of the year. HongMeng OS is a competitor to Google’s Android OS, which would free Huawie paying licensing fees for other’s operating systems, allowing Huawei to undercut competition in the low end smart phone market. This is a response to President Trump’s executive order banning Google and Qualcomm from Huawei over security risks. The HongMeng OS is considered part of a long term strategy.

4) Stock market closings for – 5 AUG 19:

Dow             25,717.74    down    767.27
Nasdaq           7,726.04    down    278.03
S&P 500          2,844.74    down       87.31

10 Year Yield:     down   at    1.74%

Oil:    up   at    $55.01

22 July 2019

1) The woes of traditional American big box retailers continues with J.C. Penney seeking strategies to keep their money losing company afloat. The company is in talks with specialist on reorganizing their trouble companies debt. Dressbarn, another retailer has announced the closing of all its retail stores starting this August with the closing of 53 stores.

2) The American retiree population is running out of money too soon. Three fifths of retirees do not have any traditional pension plan. The much vaunted 401K plan for replacing retirement plans, which became popular in the last quarter of the twentieth century, is failing to provide the needed retirement income despite the soaring stock market of the last ten years. This will leave America’s young people with a massive burden who themselves are facing financial challenges with shrinking job markets and displacement by technology.

3) The renowned airline manufacture Boeing announced they are taking a $4.9 billion dollar charge in the second quarter which will wipe out all of it’s profits for that quarter. This charge is compensation to airline companies for having their aircraft grounded, resulting in loss of business and revenues. Furthermore, Boeing has cut production of their best selling product as deliveries are backed up pending acceptance of their software fix by the government.

4) Stock market closings for – 19 JUL 19:

Dow                 27,154.20    down    68.77
Nasdaq             8,146.49    down    60.75
S&P 500            2,976.61    down    18.50

10 Year Yield:    up   at    2.05%

Oil:    up   at    $55.74

24 May 2019

1) Oil prices dropped liked a brick in its worst day of trading in 2019, the result of jitters over trade with China. The price of oil serves as a barometer to the world economic outlook, with a slowing of the world economy translating into a lesser demand for oil and therefore lower oil prices. The situation is aggravated by a surprise jump in American crude stockpile, with inventories up by 4.7 million barrels. The stock market reflected the world economic situation by massive drops too.

2) Panasonic electronics is joining a growing list of firms distancing themselves from Huawei, by stopping their supplying of some electronic parts to Huawei. Companies are declining to do business with Huawei because of warnings from U.S. intelligence that Huawei presences a security risk with their new 5G technology, which will allow the Chinese military to use smart phones to gather foreign intelligence.

3) President Trump announced $16 billion dollars in farm aid to offset the losses by farmers in the ten month long trade war. Distribution of aid payments will be based on where they farm rather than what crops they till. Farmers were a key constituency that help bring victory to President Trump, and they have been the hardest hit from the trade wars with China. China used to import 60% of U.S. soy bean production.

4) 23 May 19 Stock market closings: Dow tumbles 400 points as trade war worries continue.

Dow            25,490.47     down    286.14
Nasdaq         7,628.28     down    122.56
S&P 500        2,822.24     down      34.03

10 Year Yield:    down   at    2.30%

Oil:    up   at    $58.19

21 May 19

1 ) The stock for electric auto maker Tesla fell today as the car maker faces an uphill battle to become profitable in the second half of the year. Delivery of its new cars are way down from sales forecast, with Tesla stock closing down 2.7%, the lowest in two and a half years. Additionally, Tesla may be facing severe financial consequences from a fatal crash involving their Autopilot system.

2) The fallout from Huawei being blacklisted in America has caused the stock market to fall. Huawei uses electronic components in their product line, high technology parts that can’t be procured from other vendors. The down side is these vendors have significant sales from Hauwei, which lowers their revenues.

3) The trade wars with China is threatening to close as many as 12,000 stores in America this next year. For the last two years, the closing of retail stores in America had been accelerating before the trade war started, the result of falling store traffic. Tariffs would cause price increases at a time when consumers are increasingly reluctant to spend their money. All ready, the closure of 6,400 retail stores have been announced.

4) 20 MAY 19 Stock market closings:

Dow              25,679.90    down     84.10
Nasdaq          7,702.38    down   113.91
S&P 500         2,840.23    down      19.30

Year Yield:    up   at    2.42%

Oil:   up  at  $63.30

UBER STOCK TANKED, AFTER IT’S IPO HIT THE MARKETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

By: Economic & Finance Report

Uber the rideshare tech company, its stock tanked on its first official trading day on the NYSE, Friday, May 10, 2019 will be a day of turmoil on the Uber corporate calendar. It was a horrible trading day for the mammoth ride sharing tech company.

Uber declined close to 8% during the stock market trading day. The stock plummeting so much (in which it did), is the first time any stock has come out the gates on Wall St and lost so much market share. The valuation of Uber was at $76 billion dollars, when analysts had predicted that it would be valued around $90-$100 billion dollars, well that didn’t happen. Not only that, Uber has been bleeding money and the perception is that, Uber won’t actually make any real money until the year 2024, hopefully.

Uber being one of the biggest IPO companies probably since Alibaba, Facebook and a few others. So it to falter as it did was a shocker to some and to others, not so much. Technology companies tend not to fare well in the beginning of their IPO presence. Facebook had a rocky start coming out the gates and other big tech companies before it, have gone through similar revelations.

It’s the test of time that will dictate the longevity of Uber’s existence and if they can navigate their ship in theses rough and turbulent stock market waters. -SB

24 April 2019

1) The stock market rallied in a big way yesterday, recovering the losses from last year, pushed up by the tech stocks and the release of their positive quarterly earnings reports. Furthermore, confidence that the interest rate will not increase further drove the markets up. Both the Nasdaq and S&P broke their record highs too.

2) The government released a report today detailing the dire straights which the Social Security and Medicare programs are in financially. Medicare is forecast to be insolvent by 2026 resulting in doctors, nurses, hospitals and nursing homes not getting fully compensated for services. Even worst, for Social Security their cost will exceed their income in 2020. The fiscal situations come in part from increasing number of obligations because baby boomers are retiring in increasing numbers and the Affordable Care Act. Many politicians wish to extend Medicare to the uninsured.

3) Problems of air bags not deploying in accidents is prompting a recall for as many as 70 million inflaters in America and 100 million world wide by the end of the year. This will involve about 12.3 million automobiles.

4) 23 APR 19 Stock market closings:

Dow               26,656.39   up   145.34
Nasdaq            8,120.82   up   105.56
S&P 500           2,933.68   up      25.71

10 Year Yield:    down   at    2.57%

Oil:    down   at    $66.18

13 February 2019

New article posted below titled, “Failings of the Fourth Estate!”

1) The CIO of Vanguard investments expects stock market returns, for the next decade, to drop down from 8% to about 7%.

2) The national debt has topped $22 trillion dollars. The debt increase is accelerating as a result of the tax cut and congressional spending on domestic and military programs. Additionally, the mounting cost to fund social security and the retiring baby boomers is pushing federal spending up too.

3) In Venezuela the cost for a hamburger is now a months wages for the average worker, with inflation now over one million percent annual. Demonstrations mount against Maduro for not letting relief (food and medicine) convoys come in for his people. Maduro rejects foreign aid fearing it is a conspiracy to oust him. This issue could be a wedge between Maduro and the Venezuela military who he depends on to remain in power.

  4) 12 FEB 19 Stock market closings:

Dow                 25,425.76     up    372.65
Nasdaq             7,414.62     up    106.71
S&P 500            2,744.73     up      34.93

10 Year Yield:     up   at    2.68%

Oil:    up   at    $53.34

7 January 2019

1) The chairman for the Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate may not be raised this year, which stimulated the markets.

2) The December unemployment rose to 3.9% with 312,000 jobs added, which may serve to raise interest rates. This news also stimulated the markets.

3) Apple faces partial ban of their phones in Germany, the German courts ordering bans on some models of Apple phones because of patent infringement disputes for energy saving chips.

4) 4 JAN 19 Stock market closings:

Dow           23,433.16 up 746.94
Nasdaq      6,738.86     up   275.35
S&P 500   2,531.94     up          84.05

10 Year Yield: up at 2.66%

Oil: up at $48.31

4 January 2019

1) Tech stocks dropped 5%, the worst drop in seven years. This prompted warnings to expect another 5% drop.

2) Apple is pulling the stock markets down because of it’s drop in sales, in particular I-phones sales in China. Slow sales are blamed on high prices for Apple phones coupled with China’s declining economy.

3) Recent survey finds that 51% of American young people favor socialism, a growing number as more young people are pushed out of the economic system unable to make substantive contributions to society.

4) 3 JAN 19 Stock market closings:

 Dow              22,686.22 down 660.02
Nasdaq          6,463.50       down   202.43
S&P 500           2,447.89       down      62.14

10 Year Yield: down at 2.55%

Oil: down at $46.98