13 January 2021

1) Reports are that Biden will unveil plans to spend trillions of dollars in pandemic and economic relief money this next week. Biden is introducing several members of his economic team, after data shows the U.S. economy has lost jobs for the first time in eight months as a resurgent COVID-19 pandemic has again shuttered restaurants and other businesses. Biden is calling for raising the minimum wage to $15, and for sending out $2,000 in direct cash payments. Biden claims that economic research confirms that with today’s crisis, especially with such low interest rates, taking immediate action, even with deficit financing , is going to help the economy. Biden also say they are looking into other economic relief actions that can be taken unilaterally, including extending a pause on repayments of federal student loans.

2) US naval aircraft carrier groups still rule the seas, but both Russia and China have plans to change that as they strive to expand their blue water navies, by developing new weapons that could threaten America’s dominance. For instance, it is reported that China launched two ballistic missiles that hit a moving target ship in the South China Sea thousands of miles from their launch sites. The Russian navy conducted its third test launch of it’s hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile that was launched from a frigate. The missile reached a speed of Mach 8 before hitting a target more than 200 miles away. These tests are the latest indication that American aircraft carriers, long viewed as kings of the seas, may soon face a real threat to their existence.

3) Iran has told South Korea not to politicize the seizure of their vessel, while demanding the release of $7 billion dollars in funds frozen amid U.S. sanctions. Additionally, Iran has denied all allegations that the seizing of South Korea’s tanker and its 20-member crew amounted to hostage taking, claiming instead it was Seoul who was holding Iran’s funds hostage. The vessel was seized based on an Iranian court order for ‘environmental pollution’, however, the ship’s Busan-based operator, said there was nothing to indicate that before the seizure of the vessel that Iranian authorities were probing possible violations of environmental rules.

4) Stock market closings for – 12 JAN 21:

Dow 31,068.69 up by 60.00
Nasdaq 13,072.43 up by 36.00
S&P 500 3,801.19 up by 1.58

10 Year Yield: up at 1.14%

Oil: up at $53.38

1 December 2020

1) Amazon’s cloud-computing unit, Amazon Web Services, suffered an outage, for such services as Adobe and Roku, who rely on Amazon for their websites, while major clients like Apple and Slack appeared to be unaffected. Amazon status page said it was experiencing problems with Kinesis, its service that processes large streams of data, causing increased error rates for a number of websites. Other services affected are Amazon’s smart security subsidiary Ring, software maker Autodesk, the lending company Affirm, Target’s Shipt delivery service and the subway status site operated by New York City’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority.

2) Elon Musk says the Tesla semi truck could go 621 miles on a battery charge, while paying a small weight penalty. Production is due to start this next year. Driven by four electric motors, one for each wheel, the same used on the Model 3 truck, and also uses the regenerative braking that gives quasi-infinite brake life. Tesla claims the truck can go 400 miles on a 30-minute charge using a Megacharger. Musk further claims that from day one a conventional diesel powered truck is 20% more expensive than a Tesla. One main problem is the size and weight of a battery pack to go those distances, so that means a 1-ton penalty compared to diesels. Trucks in the U.S. have a total weight limit of 40 metric tons or 80,000 pounds including their load. Regulations allows 11 hours of driving a day during a 14-hour window, so if a truck averaged 50 mph over that time, it would move 550 miles in a day. For 60 mph it would be 660.

3) The Philippines’ defense secretary has warned that increasing tensions in the South China Sea between the United States and China could easily spill over into war. If a shooting war happens, the Philippines will be involved whether she likes it or not. The crux of the threat is a confrontation of the U.S. and its allies against China for the South China Sea. An example is a Chinese destroyer recently coming threateningly close to an American warship who was conducting a ‘freedom of navigation’ patrol in the South China Sea. Also, China continues its threatening actions against Taiwan by staging amphibious landing maneuvers for invasions of islands like Taiwan.

4) Stock market closings for – 30 NOV 20:
Dow 29,638.64 down by 271.73
Nasdaq 12,198.74 down by 7.11
S&P 500 3,621.63 down by 16.72
10 Year Yield: unchanged at 0.84%
Oil: up at $45.14

24 June 2020

1) Economists are concerned about four major factors bearing down on a recovery of the economy. These are 1) the household fiscal cliff, 2) a great business die-off, 3) state and local budget shortfalls, and 4) the lingering health crisis. The pandemic shutdown cost the jobs of 40 million Americans, 40% of them low wage workers. This has left many households short of money, having little to no savings to meet their fiscal obligations such as rent and utilities. Add to this, there has been a steep decline in consumer spending leaving large numbers of businesses to face bankruptcy, thereby making a contraction of the economy. But businesses are not the only one facing revenue shortfalls, for governments are also facing shortages of money needed for their operations and paying employees, as in more layoffs. Finally, the cost of controlling the Convid-19 virus, especially if a major second wave does emerge, for both preventive treatment and caring for the sick. All four of these factors may very well be pushing America’s economy towards another Great Recession, which could last for many years.

2) The New York eviction moratorium ended this weekend, raising fears that tens of thousands of residents will soon face evictions which will flood the courts. This problem is a reflection of a problem across all of America as those 40 million laid-off workers have been unable to pay rent or mortgage payments and now face losing their residence. But it isn’t one sided, for landlords and lenders are also facing money shortages to meet their obligations too, which can lead to their fiscal demise. Most of the tenants and home owners have limited monies beyond their income, so paying back rent and mortgage is going to be near impossible.

3) China is warning of the risk of a naval incident with the US. Claiming that the U.S. military is deploying in unprecedented numbers to the Asia-Pacific region, which makes for a rising risk of an incident with China’s navy. The United States freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea has angered the Chinese, who is trying to establish dominance in the area and hence control of the territory. The Chinese claim that 60% of America’s warships and 375,000 soldiers are deployed in the Indo-Pacific region, including three aircraft carriers. So far, the U.S. Navy has conducted 28 freedom of navigation operations by sailing through the area where China has built islands, and therefore claiming the area as theirs.

4) Stock market closings for – 23 JUN 20:

Dow 26,156.10 up 131.14
Nasdaq 10,131.37 up 74.89
S&P 500 3,131.29 up 13.43

10 Year Yield: unchanged at 0.71%

Oil: up at $40.02