24 April 2019

1) The stock market rallied in a big way yesterday, recovering the losses from last year, pushed up by the tech stocks and the release of their positive quarterly earnings reports. Furthermore, confidence that the interest rate will not increase further drove the markets up. Both the Nasdaq and S&P broke their record highs too.

2) The government released a report today detailing the dire straights which the Social Security and Medicare programs are in financially. Medicare is forecast to be insolvent by 2026 resulting in doctors, nurses, hospitals and nursing homes not getting fully compensated for services. Even worst, for Social Security their cost will exceed their income in 2020. The fiscal situations come in part from increasing number of obligations because baby boomers are retiring in increasing numbers and the Affordable Care Act. Many politicians wish to extend Medicare to the uninsured.

3) Problems of air bags not deploying in accidents is prompting a recall for as many as 70 million inflaters in America and 100 million world wide by the end of the year. This will involve about 12.3 million automobiles.

4) 23 APR 19 Stock market closings:

Dow               26,656.39   up   145.34
Nasdaq            8,120.82   up   105.56
S&P 500           2,933.68   up      25.71

10 Year Yield:    down   at    2.57%

Oil:    down   at    $66.18

9 April 2019

1) In ten years, the US debt to GDP ratio will be equal (100%). The debt to GDP ratio is presently 78%, the highest since the end of World War II, but it’s anticipated to be 96% by 2028. To bring this into perspective, countries with sever economic problems such as Greece have a ratio of 188%, Italy 130%, Portugal at 120% and Spain with 97%. On the positive side, Germany has a ratio of 59%. The IMF is warning of the problem for America if the ratio is left to continue as is. A high ratio hinders a government’s ability to counter any economic downturn. America’s entitlements is the principle cause for the increase, because when Social Security was started, there were 16 workers to support each retiree, now there are just 2.6 workers.

2) European Union borrowers are eager to see how a Brexit extension will effect markets, by possibly reducing the uncertainty that Brexit has brought on. This spring, the IMF and World Bank will be meeting for their annual conference on world economic matters.

3) Tesla, the maker of electric automobiles, is starting its new quarter with another round of cuts of sales staff following poor deliveries. The company is closing some of it’s show rooms in favor of online sales. These actions are rattling investors by stoking confusion.

4) 8 APR 19 Stock market closing:

Dow                          26,341.02     down     83.97
Nasdaq                       7,953.88           up     15.19
S&P 500                      2,895.77           up       3.03

10 Year Yield:    up   at    2.52%

Oil:    up   at    $64.46

6 March 2019

1) The Green New Deal is bringing out proposals for financing the single payer health care proposals. There is a big problem with providing enough health care people such as doctors and nurses to care for the increase numbers of people. Suggestions for finance is an overhaul of present payroll tax combining social security, unemployment and medicare into one flat tax for all of a person’s income. However, apparently there has been no modeling of this strategy to determine its viability.

2) President Trump proposes to drop the preferential trade treatment for India. Presently, there are $5.6 billion dollars worth of Indian goods imported each year into America duty free, while India is imposing high tariffs on US goods imported into India.

3)  As Brexit nears, British people and companies are stockpiling goods at an increasing rate, fearful of shortages if a ‘no-deal’ exit occurs. Both business and households are fearful of shortages especially food items first, then things like toilet paper and medicine.

4) 5 MAR 19 Stock market closings:

Dow           25,806.63     down     13.02
Nasdaq        7,576.36     down       1.21
S&P 500       2,789.65     down       3.16

10 Year Yield:    unchanged   at    2.72%

Oil:    down   at    $56.28

13 February 2019

New article posted below titled, “Failings of the Fourth Estate!”

1) The CIO of Vanguard investments expects stock market returns, for the next decade, to drop down from 8% to about 7%.

2) The national debt has topped $22 trillion dollars. The debt increase is accelerating as a result of the tax cut and congressional spending on domestic and military programs. Additionally, the mounting cost to fund social security and the retiring baby boomers is pushing federal spending up too.

3) In Venezuela the cost for a hamburger is now a months wages for the average worker, with inflation now over one million percent annual. Demonstrations mount against Maduro for not letting relief (food and medicine) convoys come in for his people. Maduro rejects foreign aid fearing it is a conspiracy to oust him. This issue could be a wedge between Maduro and the Venezuela military who he depends on to remain in power.

  4) 12 FEB 19 Stock market closings:

Dow                 25,425.76     up    372.65
Nasdaq             7,414.62     up    106.71
S&P 500            2,744.73     up      34.93

10 Year Yield:     up   at    2.68%

Oil:    up   at    $53.34