9 October 2019

1) The pizza giant Domino’s had been the darling of Wall Street, with its soaring sales, but its growth has gone stale. The company’s reported revenue and profit missed Wall Street’s forecast with its stock sagging. The same-store sales grew just 2.4% compared with last years 6.3%. Domino’s operates in 85 countries with 10,000 stores outside of the U.S., which generate half of its revenues.

2) Boeing aircraft has got its first 737 MAX order since the crashes forced grounding of all 737 MAX aircraft. Boeing’s net order tally, including cancellations, was a negative 84 for the first nine months of 2019. In addition, Southwest Airlines’ pilots union has filed a law suit against Boeing for damages caused by the prolonged grounding of its 737 MAX, claiming loss of pay to its pilot from canceled flights and seeing $115 million dollars in compensation.

3) Duke University professor Campbell Harvey, the father of the yield curve and pioneer of the economic forecasting model, says to prepare for a recession. He based his prediction on inverted curves, which happen when short term Treasury yields are higher than those with longer duration, which his research indicates the coming of a recession.

4) Stock market closings for – 8 OCT 19:

Dow                     26,164.04    down    313.98
Nasdaq                  7,823.78    down    132.52
S&P 500                 2,893.06    down      45.73

10 Year Yield:    down   at    1.54%

Oil:    down   at    $52.57

3 October 2019

1) Despite positive last quarters, both General Motors and Ford Motor company’s are concerned about the U.S. auto market taking a turn for the worse. Shares for the two automakers, as well as Fiat Chrysler, fell because of smaller figures for the quarter, although smaller than market analysis projected. There are also concerns of the overall impact from a slowing U.S. and international economies with the impact it would have on new car sales.

2) For the second day, the stock markets nose dived with the Dow losing more than 800 points these last two days. Fears of an economic recession cause the Dow to lose 490 points on Wednesday, with indications that manufacturing is slowing down, and even though manufacturing accounts for only 10% of the economy, investors see this as an indication that the economy is contracting soon with a possible recession in the near future.

3) With the markets in decline, there is a lot riding on the up coming job numbers this Friday. Fears of a coming recession could be reinforced with poor job numbers signaling that a recession is nearing. So far, there is little evidence of layoffs on the rise despite scattered reports that more companies are cutting jobs.

4) Stock market closings for – 2 OCT 19:

Dow           26,078.62    down    494.42
Nasdaq        7,785.25    down   123.44
S&P 500       2,887.61    down     52.64

10 Year Yield:    down   at    1.60%

Oil:    down   at    $52.47

19 September 2019

1) The Federal Reserved voted for a quarter percent drop in the interest rate, bringing the ire of President Trump in a tweet, complaining the Feds lack the guts and vision to cut more. But the board surprised everyone by its divided vote, three of the members voted against a policy decision, while seven voted for it. This is considered an indication of how uncertain things are and just what the economic future holds. In response, the stock markets fell over the news of just a quarter percent rate reduction.

2) Some fear that parallels in the market signal the coming of another recession. These parallels include an inverted yield curve with the stock markets making new highs in July, followed by a correction in August, then a rally in early September. Additionally, growth is slowing. These same signs occurred in 2007 prior to sliding into a sever recession. All that is needed is a trigger such as the world oil supply.

3) As a result of the UAW (United Auto Workers) strike, GM (General Motors) announced 1,300 layoffs in their Oshawa plant in Canada. This is because GM plants in the US are shut down and unable to deliver needed parts and assemblies to the Canadian plant. This shows that the strike is spreading to other units of the automakers business.

4) Stock market closings for – 18 SEP 19:

Dow             27,147.08         up    36.28
Nasdaq          8,177.39    down      8.62
S&P 500         3,006.73          up      1.03

10 Year Yield:    down   at    1.79%

Oil:    $58.25

18 September 2019

1) World oil prices dropped sharply with Saudi Arabian source saying that their oil production could be fully back on line within weeks. This is far sooner than was initially assumed by world markets. Production may be back up in as little as two to three weeks. The attacks resulted in the largest single supply disruption in half a century.

2) Economists say the GM (General Motors) strike no longer has the economic impact that they once did. They assert it will take a lengthy shutdown to make a national impact. This is a result of GM’s market share shrinking while its work force is now smaller, in part because of automation. A prolonged strike could impact the economy by disrupting the supply chain effecting other industries. GM has shifted workers health care cost to the UAW (United Auto Workers) union, increasing pressure on the union for a quick settlement.

3) There are expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates on Wednesday for the second time in two months with another likely cut later this year. The consensus is the feds will drop the interest rate by about a quarter percent in an attempt to starve off the world economic slowdown from reaching America. Job growth has slowed and the index of manufacturing activity shows contraction, increasing fears that a recession will happen in the near future.

4) Stock market closings for – 17 SEP 19:

Dow                 27,110.80    up    33.98
Nasdaq             8,186.02    up    32.47
S&P 500            3,005.70    up      7.74

10 Year Yield:    down   at    1.81%

Oil:    down   at    $58.81

22 August 2019

1) Retailers Target and Lowe’s posted second quarter sales higher than anticipated by analyst. Target’s ‘same store sales’ is up by 3.4% compared to an expected growth of 2.9%. This news boosted Target’s stock by 16%. Lowe’s also reported better than expected second quarter earning results which pushed its stock up 10%. These big box store reports help qual fears of an approaching recession.

2) The chip maker Intel announced two new chip products for the AI (Artificial Intelligence) market, processors as part of its Nervana Neural Network Processor. This chips will accelerate training and inferences drawn from AI models. This will allow AI systems to gain inferences and insights more readily. They will help AI platforms address the crush of data being generated and ensure AI enterprises make efficient use of their data, by processing it where it’s collected.

3) Boeing, the aircraft manufacturer, is incurring additional cost from its grounded 737 MAX, by hiring hundreds of temporary workers to help maintain its growing fleet of 737 MAXs that Boeing is storing until the FAA restores its certification. These temporary workers have skills such as avionics technicians, aircraft mechanics, airframe and power plant mechanics and aircraft electricians. Once the aircraft is re-certified, these technicians will be needed to upgrade the software and prepare aircraft for delivery.

4) Stock market closings for – 21 AUG 19:

Dow            26,202.73    up    240.29
Nasdaq         8,020.21    up      71.65
S&P 500        2,924.43    up       23.92

10 Year Yield:    up   at    1.58%

Oil:    up   at    $55.85

20 August 2019

1) Fears of a possible recession were dampened as stocks rose while Treaasury yields rebounded. The U.S. decision to extend a temporary reprieve to the Chinese telecom giant Huawein is credited with the change in markets. The Treasury notes appears to have broken out of the yield-curve inversion , which is a potential signal that a recession may be coming in the near future.

2) Delivery platforms like DoorDash, Uber Eats, Postmates and Grubhub have open new opportunities for America’s fast food industries. Previously, the only fast food delivered was pizza, but these new delivery services allows a wide range of foods to be delivered to customers at home or office. While it does open new opportunities for increased sales, the down side is the service could eat into restaurant’s profits and erode customer loyalty.

3) The retail giant Target, known for being the master of private label brands, is launching it’s own new food brand called ‘Good & Gather’. Due to start on the 15th of September, it will initially have 650 products, but will eventually expand to about 2,000 products, such as coffee, milk and eggs. Target describes their product line to be affordable and will replace present brands such as Simply Balanced and Archer Farms brands, while also reducing its Market Pantry line. For Target, using private label brands have been a way to boost profit margins while maintaining affordable prices. They’re a big asset in driving traffic to their stores.

4) Stock market closings for – 19 AUG 19:

Dow           26,135.79    up    249.78
Nasdaq        8,002.81    up    106.82
S&P 500       2,923.65    up      34.97

10 Year Yield:     up   at    1.60%

Oil:    down   a   t $56.08

16 August 2019

1) Retail giant Walmart reported a strong second quarter and raised its earnings expectations for the year. This news eases concerns about consumer demand dropping because of the trade war with China. Shoppers spent more at stores and websites, indicating the consumer economy has not lost steam. Walmart posted a 20 quarter or five years of growth unmatched by any other retailer. The retailer gets 56% of its revenues from grocery sales, so it is less vulnerable to tariffs.

2) In July, American’s spent more at retail stores and restaurants, indicating the economic growth remains healthy, despite fears of a coming global economic slowdown and possible recession. Despite such fears, consumer confidence remains steady. Most economists are not forecasting a recession, because consumer spending and the job market remains strong.

3) Saudi Arabia is ramping up its oil exports to China, with crude shipments doubled over the last year, while its oil exports to America have dropped by nearly two thirds. This shift has occurred in part from oil embargo on Iran, which has caused Asian importers to shift away from Iran to other sources, aided by U.S. growing independence of any oil imports. The U.S. is becoming the worlds largest producer of oil.

4) Stock market closings for – 15 AUG 19:

Dow            25,579.39         up    99.97
Nasdaq         7,766.62    down      7.32
S&P 500        2,847.60          up      7.00

10 Year Yield:     down   at    1.53%

Oil:     up   at    $54.70

7 August 2019

1) There are fears that the deepening China and American trade war may severely effect the fragile oil market. The tariffs increases has already send oil prices spiraling down over concerns of a sever global economic slowdown or recession. But China could use oil as an economic weapon by purchasing vast quantities of oil from Iran thus driving oil prices down from $60 to as low as $40 while also undermining President Trump’s foreign policy.

2) Gold, always a panic investment from economic fears, is again attracting investors with its prices pushing upward. With the devaluation of the Chinese money and threats that the U.S. might follow suit, investors are worried about the value of other monies sliding down. Fears of what will happen to the Euro and British Pound with a ‘no deal’ exit, coupled with European government bonds rates that are so low, is further attracting investors to gold. Hence, investors are migrating to the traditional safe heaven of gold.

3) In an attempt to further push into the Nordic markets, payment processor Mastercard Inc will buy the majority of the corporate services businesses of Scandinavian payments group Nets. The financial technology sector is consolidating fast as more people switch from cash to digital payments, both on line and on the street. The $3.19 billion dollar deal gives Mastercard further clearing and instant payment services plus e-billing solutions.

4) Stock market closings for – 6 AUG 19:

Dow             26,029.52    up    311.78
Nasdaq           7,833.26    up    107.23 
S&P 500          2,881.77    up      37.03

10 Year Yield:    up   at    1.74%

Oil:    down   at    $53.46

18 July 2019

1) News for budding entrepreneurs. Each year, roughly 30,000 new consumer products are introduced to the market place, but 95% of them fail. The primary reason for failure is lack of preparation, of not understanding the ‘product life cycle’. The life cycle is the time from inception to obsolescence the product experiences. As a product goes through its life cycle, the sales and profit margins will fluctuate, so you must adjust your marketing mix accordingly. The subject is complex and extensive, and a new entrepreneur should spend time researching and understanding the topic before investing in a new product venture.

2) AT&T and Microsoft announced they have agreed on a cloud deal worth more than $2 billion dollars. AT&T will use Microsoft’s Azure cloud service for its computing needs and Office 365 software for its 268,000 people. Additionally, the two companies will work together on edge computing with Microsoft technology deployed alongside AT&T’s up coming 5G network and applications requiring extremely small delays in passing data back and forth such as real time control systems applications.

3) The debt of America is about to hit a record high, a result of cheap money and soaring debt, which has fueled the decade long economic expansion and bull market. There are raising fears of what could happen if there is a shift in the fragile economic balance. The total American debt, both public and private amounts to nearly $70 trillion dollars, with the economy about $21 trillion dollars in size. Difficulties could arise if America should experience a recession with both government and private sectors having trouble meeting their repayments.

4) Stock market closings for – 17 JUL 19: Disappointing quarterly reports pulled the markets down.

Dow                   27,219.85    down    115.78
Nasdaq                8,185.21    down      37.59
S&P 500               2,984.42    down      19.62

10 Year Yield:    down   at    2.06%

Oil:    down   at    $56.58

7 May 2019

1) The jobs report Friday was better than expected, up from last months 190,000, with 263,000 jobs reported and unemployment down again to 3.6%. This underscores the economy’s vigor with unemployment at half the century low. This may eliminate the markets fears of a recession.

2) This Friday, just after midnight, China will have an additional 25% tariffs imposed. However, there are fears that domestic Chinese politics may cause the ploy to backfire, from the Chinese people seeing their government backing down to America. Therefore, the Chinese government may not be able to respond as Washington is expecting.

3) Fears of the consequences of more tariffs on China caused a slight downturn of today’s market closings.

4) 6 MAY 19 Stock market closings:

Dow             26,438.48    down    66.47
Nasdaq          8,123.29    down    40.71
S&P 500         2,932.47    down    13.17

10 Year Yield:    down   at    2.50%

Oil:    down   at    $62.04