22 October 2020

1) Many consider the next economic crisis to be the growing profusion of empty retail space, as tenants stop paying rent and reduce their offices, leaving commercial real estate in a pinch. Commercial real estate is in trouble, the $15 trillion dollar market is threatened with decline, and the longer the pandemic persists the more ill effects on hotels, retailers and office buildings, therefore the more difficult it is for property owners to meet their mortgage payments. The widespread downgrades, defaults and eventual foreclosures, coming from companies like J.C. Penney, Neiman Marcus and Pier 1 filing for bankruptcy, has retail properties losing major tenants with nothing to replace them. Motels and hotels are running below 50 percent occupancy, with the stimulus bill having no provisions to prop them up, the government hoping the commercial mortgages will just heal by themself.

2) The Justice Department is accusing the internet giant Google of illegally protecting its monopoly over search and advertising. The company is accused of building an illegal monopoly over parts of the internet. The Justice Department accused Google of building a monopoly over central parts of the internet. The main concern is Google working with other major internet companies to channel the internet to Google’s search engine, as the default search engine, by Google providing the engine to include in other company’s products through exclusive business contracts and agreements. The government contends that Google has used anti-competitive tactics to maintain and extend its monopolies in the markets for general search services, search advertising and general search text advertising which is the cornerstones of its empire. It is considered this will be a major test of the antitrust law. A victory for the government could remake one of America’s most recognizable companies and the internet economy.

3) NASA OSIRIS-REx spacecraft mission has successfully touched down on the asteroid Bennu to bring a rock-soil sample back to earth for analysis. The van-size spacecraft briefly touched down on a landing site the width of a few parking spaces. It collected a sample between 2 ounces and 2 kilograms, then the spacecraft backed away to safety. Bennu is a boulder-studded “rubble pile” asteroid shaped like a spinning top and is as tall as the Empire State Building. If everything runs smoothly, the spacecraft and its prized sample will begin the long journey back to Earth next year and land the sample on Earth in 2023.

4) Stock market closings for – 21 OCT 20:

Dow 28,210.82 down 97.97
Nasdaq 11,484.69 down 31.80
S&P 500 3,435.56 down 7.56

10 Year Yield: up at 0.82%

Oil: down at $40.00

12 October 2020

1) With the recession from the Covid-19 came predictions of waves of bankruptcy filings as businesses, large and small, failed. But that wave of bankruptcy has not materialized, and so far, there’s no sign that it will, indeed bankruptcies are down a little from last year. This is a good sign that companies and households are not as stressed as many economist feared. However, bankruptcy filings aren’t a perfect measure of hardship, with many companies barely hanging on, so bankruptcies may still be coming. Many small businesses and households go bust without ever formally filing for bankruptcy.

2) The four massive high tech companies, Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook are under investigation at Federal and State levels for antitrust. These investigations are spurred by concerns that competition is being stifled by the domination of these companies, but there are concerns that the big tech is trying to also stifle conservative voices. Google is facing a relatively narrow complaint from the Justice Department that it seeks to disadvantage rivals in search and advertising. The focus on Apple is their apps store with accusations that Apple introduces new products and then put out apps that compete with them. Facebook has raised concerns over how they treat some of their app developers on its platform and therefore engaged in unlawful monopolistic practices. Amazon is suspected of conflict of interest in competition with small sellers on its marketplace platform.

3) Silicon Valley companies are thinking about the future of work taking actions from pay cuts to permanent work-from-home as they strive to cope with the coronavirus crisis. The big tech companies have formed various plans for the future of work. Some companies, (Twitter and Slack), said their employees never need to return to the office, while others, such as Microsoft, are adopting a hybrid model where employees report to the office only a few days a week. Amazon and Salesforce are adopting new benefits to help out working parents, such as subsidized back-up childcare and extended paid leave, while Facebook, employees may work from home permanently. However, if they leave the Bay Area for a less expensive city, they’ll may face a pay cut. Silicon Valley may bear little resemblance to the thriving hub before the pandemic. Tech companies have largely shut down their sprawling campuses and asked employees to work from home — in some cases, forever. When those offices reopen office life is unlikely to resemble the past. Companies may change their real estate plans, opting instead for a new type of office, or none at all.

4) Stock market closings for – 9 OCT 20:

Dow 28,586.90 up 61.39
Nasdaq 11,579.94 up 158.96
S&P 500 3,477.13 up 30.30

10 Year Yield: up at 0.78%

Oil: down at $40.52

5 June 2019

1) The tech giants Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon are facing antitrust troubles. The government is stepping up scrutiny of these big four with possible new rules, regulations and law suits. The investigative efforts will be split between the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission driven by mounting criticism over political bias, disinformation and privacy breaches. This could spell years of troubles and law suits and possible breakup of the companies.

2) The threat of tariffs on Mexican imports has American oil refiners worried, since Mexico is the number two source of foreign oil to the United States. American produced oil is a light oil which is a poor match for Gulf Coast refining facilities, while the Mexican oil is a heavy oil that when blended with the America optimizes the refinery’s output.

3) The Medicaid system is still suffering from the Great recession, so there are fears than another recession could be devastating for the system. This is at a time when state spending on Medicaid is still high with no signs of subsiding. In a recession, payrolls decrease from people unemployed or underemployed, so contributions are down. This means less buildup of reserve funds needed for the future, and a second recession so soon, could seriously deplete those reserves quicker, leaving the future of the system in doubt.

4) Stock market closings for 4 June 2019: Jump in Dow comes from Fed signals flexibility on rates.

Dow               25,332.18    up    512.40
Nasdaq             7,527.12    up    194.10
S&P 500            2,803.27    up      58.82

10 Year Yield:    up   at    2.12%

Oil:    down   at    $52.95