1) Dr. Anthony Fauci, MD has issued a new chilling warning about the Covid virus. A new strain from South African, known as the 501Y.V2 variant, is showing itself to be an even greater threat than the variant that started the pandemic. Experience shows that the South Africa virus has a very high rate of reinfection to the point where previous infection does not seem to protect you against reinfection with the South African variant. While research has shown that the current Covid vaccines may be less effective against the South African strain, there is no evidence that any of these new strains are completely resistant to the vaccines currently available. Nevertheless, the South African coronavirus mutation (B.1.351) poses a risk of reinfection to people who have already had Covid-19 and the vaccine efficacy may also be impacted. However, the number of daily coronavirus infections in the US has been dropping for a couple of weeks, but it’s still well over 100,000 per day, while the number of vaccinations is more than 32 million first dose. This isn’t enough to impact the course of the epidemic and significantly reduce transmission.
2) While the fears of a Treasury sell-off has tailed off, after the big move in the 10-year Treasury at the start of the year, the factors that led to that brief sell-off in Treasurys are very much still at hand. Chief among them are the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the huge fiscal stimulus already enacted with more in the pipeline, the pent-up spending power in household savings, and the easy monetary policy. Computer models say a perfect storm is being unleashed, with estimates that the 10-year Treasury yield will jump 162 basis points this year and another 160 basis points next year. This is well ahead of market estimates of roughly 17 basis points of gains in each of the next two years. The model doesn’t include the effects of any additional fiscal stimulus from the Biden administration, with its proposed $1.9 trillion dollars.
3) Experts consider gold futures are set to see a decline, which technical strategists believe may underscore a bearish trend in the yellow metal. Called a ‘death cross’, which occurs when the 50-day moving average, that many chart watchers use as a short-term trend tracker, crosses below the 200-DMA, which is widely viewed as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends. The idea is that the cross marks the spot that a shorter-term sell-off can be defined as a longer term downtrend. The potential formation of a death cross, which reflects the recent slump in trading, comes as gold has experienced whipsawing action after the precious metal tumbled 1.6% on Tuesday.
4) Stock market closings for – 4 FEB 21:
Dow 31,055.86 up by 332.26 Nasdaq 13,777.74 up by 167.20 S&P 500 3,871.74 up by 41.57
Africa’s biggest cocoa producers Ghana, and Ivory Coast, will partner together to increase production of the cocoa bean. Both countries suffered economically because of the declining revenue of cocoa beans.
Presidents of Ghana, Nana-Akufo Addo, and Ivory Coast President, Alassane Ouattara met on Friday to discuss ways of increasing cocoa bean production and better coordinate between countries on increased development of the plant.
Both countries will be working with the African Development Bank, to find ways on capitalizing on cocoa and increasing the revenue in the sector. Ivory Coast and Ghana want to export more cocoa, which eventually helps revenues in both countries. Cocoa sales have suffered within the last several years worldwide and cocoa futures that are traded in global markets, have declined drastically as well; in daytime trading. -SB
As the Fed readies to deliver remarks of their Fed Policy meeting tomorrow March 18, 2015 (Wednesday). Stock, Futures, Commodities, Forex traders are bracing if the Federal Reserve Board are going to raise interest rates.
The Fed will make their announcement after the two day policy meeting, which is usually the case by most standards. The stock market has been profiting and doing fairly well with low interest rates so increasing the interest rates could have an opposite effect toward the markets.
Noone knows exactly when the rates will actually be heightened but many analyst and observers believe it will be later in the year in the middle of the year precisely. Tomorrow trading will probably be limited until after the Feds remarks, which only makes sense, “No need to jump in front of a moving train”, as the saying goes. We shall see. -SB
Trading in the Forex markets comes with its rewards but also entails many risks. Knowing how to minimize the risk and outperforming to attain greater rewards is key in attaining a strong edge in the markets. In the week of January 12-16, 2015; the second full week of the New Year, the market witnessed probably one of the greatest losses in the forex and trading markets. The Swiss National Bank indicated they were allowing their Swiss Franc regulatory program against the Euro to be freely traded, and the reaction sent investors, traders, analyst, brokerages, market makers, and market movers into a windfall of turmoil.
Brokerages such as FXCM, one of the top retail forex brokerage in the US, were forced to attain a loan to cover their clients’ losses. The damages adhered were in excess of $300 million dollars USD. Private equity asset lenders had to come in to foot the bill. Financial banks such as Citigroup lost anywhere from $150-$200 million dollars, and other brokerages closed their shops indefinitely. Deutsche Bank (DB) lost excess of $150 million USD and Barclay’s Plc loss a little under $100 million USD. United Kingdom Brokers such as Alpari folded their uniformed shop and they are now gone in the oblivion because of this unfortunate Forex demise.
The wakeup call now places traders, especially retail traders in a tough position because of what happened underlying the Swiss National Bank. In the United States Forex and Futures is monitored by the NFA (National Futures Association) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trade Commission). These regulatory bodies have oversight on the futures and Forex markets and the regulations and rules are essential on what occurs in the Forex and Futures markets. So exactly what happens next from the entire debacle that had occurred? Well, once thing is quite sure, and that is retail traders now will be more on alert as discretional volatility will of course continue, maybe weeks and months ahead in this destabilizing Forex marketplace. –SB
About the Columnist/Writer:
Mr. Samuel Bassey is a Futures/Stocks/Forex Trader, based in New York City. He has an MBA in Media Management and is a licensed real estate professional and investor. He is the founder and operator of the international/global economic, finance, and business blog website called www.EconomicandFinanceReport.com, which he writes for as well; and he has a real estate property management/investing website entitled www.SammyBuyHomes.com. He can be contacted @ Samuelbassey@msn.com and info@SammyBuysHomes.com