1) For first time since World War II the U.S. government’s debt will nearly equal the size of the entire American economy. By the end of 2020, the amount of debt owed by the United States will be about 98% of the nation’s gross domestic product with a debt that is about three times the 2019 level. The huge surge in debt is a result of the Congress spending an additional $3 trillion dollars in emergency funding since March, a result of the economic downturn from the coronavirus crisis. This is why some members of Congress and the White House have balked at approving an additional $2 trillion dollars in spending in view of the weak economy coupled with having little promise of improving soon. Few experts believe the Congress is likely to do something to reduce the deficit in the short term, all the while unemployment remains near 10 percent. Interest rates are low, which makes it less costly for the federal government to borrow. In addition to increase emergency spending, tax revenues fell as business slowed and many people lost their jobs.
2) After a steady increase in the markets, setting new records for highs, the stock markets took a sudden nose dive. This was caused by a massive and sudden sell off of the technology sector. The tech stocks had been on a ten day winning streak then a sudden overnight change which caught everyone by surprise. The Nasdaq dropped almost 600 points while the Dow was down 800 points. Market experts are left wondering what will come next, especially with the next jobs report for August coming out.
3) The pace of rehiring is expected to slow in August, so the economy will likely add fewer jobs than in July, while workers continue to be laid off. Because of the pandemic, America lost about 22 million jobs in March and April. In May through July, about 9.3 million jobs came back, so we are still short about 12 to 13 million jobs. Part of this is a result of so many small businesses having gone bust, so it will take a long time to replace those businesses and therefore replace the jobs they had. Economic turmoil is when technology displacement is prevalent as business seek the means to survive by reducing labor cost (eliminating jobs).
4) Stock market closings for – 3 SEP 20:
Dow 28,292.73 down 807.77 Nasdaq 11,458.10 down 598.34 S&P 500 3,455.06 down 125.78
1) President Trump is slipping in the polls, and this may pose a risk to the markets. Even though the wild swings of the markets have subsided and then surged upwards, with the Democrat Joe Biden gaining in the polls, there is concerns that the markets will take a down turn as Biden becomes stronger. The President is facing criticism over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the protest from the killing of George Floyd by the police. A victory by Joe Biden and a Democratic sweep are considered more ‘market unfriendly’ outcomes. Taxes are one major area of contrast between the candidates, with taxes a major concern for American businesses. These fears are fueled by the Dow sliding downwards for the first time this month as the rally pauses.
2) Borrowing by the British government to pay for the coronavirus shutdown is soaring to levels not seen since World War II. This is on top of the financial problems from Brexit with Britain’s debt jumping five-fold to a 300 billion pound deficit ($380 billion dollars) . This could leave Britain with a 2.2 trillion pound debt and the need to raise taxes with an impact on economic growth. Britain is funding this expenditure with sales of bonds, but have fears of a Greece style loss of confidence among investors. The government is hoping for a fast recovery after restrictions are lifted, allowing the debt to quickly be paid down.
3) There are fears that the U.S. dollar is entering a bear market so may no longer be the safe haven for investors. This bear market could go for five to ten years. This would occur if the global economy really is bottoming out and thereby rebound again, while U.S. interest rates are at zero, with potential growth lower than the merging markets. The U.S. dollar is depreciating against many international peer currencies these last few days.
4) Stock market closings for – 9 JUN 20:
Dow 27,272.30 down 300.14 Nasdaq 9,953.75 up 29.01 S&P 500 3,207.18 down 25.21
1) The Federal government is moving to address the record deficits that America has amassed. One method is to stretch out the time over which the deficit is paid off. Part of that plan is the reinstating of the 20 year bond, which was last issued in 1986. The Feds will auction off $20 billion dollars worth of bonds Wednesday, with an expected return of 1.21% verses 0.70% for the 10 year bonds and 1.42% for the 30 year bonds. The government is also considering 50 and 100 year bonds, but there doesn’t seem to be any demand for such financial instruments. It’s expected that the deficit will be $3.4 trillion dollars for fiscal 2020 and $2 trillion dollars for 2021.
2) The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) estimates the nation’s unemployment rate will exceed 15% through September then remain above 11% for the rest of the year. For 2021, they estimate an average of 9.3%. For the second quarter of 2020, the labor market is projected to see the steepest declines since the 1930’s. These high unemployment rates are expected to persist despite lawmakers’ efforts to counter with injections of cash into the economy. Further layoffs are expected despite the $660 billion dollar Paycheck Protection Program, but a partial rebound is possible in the last three months of the year, with as much as 30% of laid off workers being rehired.
3) Housing sales are way down, the lack of inventory has propped up prices with bidding wars from the limited availability of properties. The health guidelines have made it more difficult to market homes, another fallout of the pandemic. Since the pandemic began, the demand has fallen off, with the number of sellers also contracting, therefore the limited availability of properties. Despite the economic uncertainty, the supply shortage prior to the Covid-19 crisis still remains. Nevertheless, the housing market has cooled, with sales of existing homes projected to fall 20% in April compared to March, which had a 8.5% drop. Construction of new houses is down as contractors wait out the virus. While loan interest rates are low, lending institutions have tightened up their loan standards.
4) Stock market closings for – 20 MAY 20:
Dow 24,575.90 up 369.04 Nasdaq 9,375.78 up 190.67 S&P 500 2,971.61 up 48.67
1) The money-markets have about $3.4 trillion dollars invested, and the large pile of cash could push the already soaring markets higher. The money-markets have grown by $1 trillion dollars over the last three years because of higher money-market rates, concerns of the ten year economic expansion and the ageing of the bull market. But despite the double digit gains this year, that cash remains in the money-markets amid concerns of an economic slowdown, investors wanting the safe bet of having a large cash reserve. Many fear the markets are at an unstable high and a reversal could occur at any time.
2) The U.S. trade deficit for September has falling to its lowest level in five months with imports dropping more sharply than exports. America has a rare surplus of petroleum, which has traditionally been a major source of imports. The import-export difference shrank 4.7% to $52.5 billion dollars, down from the August deficit of $55 billion dollars, with the deficit with China creeping down 0.6% to $31.6 billion dollars.
3) The Bank of America announced it will pay a $20 dollar minimum wage in 2020, a year earlier than planned. This will raise wages for more than 208,000 of its U.S. employees. The higher pay for retail bankers is becoming crucial with the increasingly competitive job market. Other main street banks have also raised their minimum wage, such as Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase. Other major companies including Amazon, Walmart, Target and McDonald’s have also increased their minimum pay.
4) Stock market closings for – 5 NOV 19:
Dow 27,492.63 up 30.52 Nasdaq 8,434.68 up 1.48 S&P 500 3,074.62 down 3.65
1) The telecommunications giant AT&T is making its belated entry into the streaming video business to compete with Netflix, Apple and Disney. AT&T plans to reach about 80 million subscribers globally, 50 million in the United States by 2025. HBO Max is expanding its customer base into the streaming market through AT&T wireless. AT&T also owns the satellite service DirecTV.
2) The UAW (United Auto Workers) has approved a new contract with GM (General Motors) which ends the six week strike. GM is calling back technicians to prepare the plants to resume production, with production resuming as early as Monday at some plants. The new contract gives workers a series of wage increases and a path for temporary workers to become permanent employees. Permanent workers can earn as much as $32 an hour.
3) The U.S. government has ended its 2019 fiscal year with the largest deficit since 2012. Gains in tax receipts were offset by higher spending and growing debt service payments. The budget deficit has widened to $984 billion dollars, which was 4.6% of the nation’s gross domestic product. Last years deficit was $779 billion dollars and 3.8% of the GDP. Defense, healthcare and social security programs are a major source for driving the deficit, with worries that these expenditures will not be sustainable.
4) Stock market closings for – 25 OCT 19:
Dow 26,958.06 up 152.53 Nasdaq 8,243.12 up 57.32 S&P 500 3,022.55 up 12.26
1) Germany’s business outlook falters amid Brexit concerns of potential US tariffs, especially on their car exports in addition to uncertainty of the German people. Germany has the largest European economy.
2) The father of Reaganomics says it’s time to get out of the market. He cautions that the end of easy money policies, the huge deficit and a near record economic expansion are all signs of a pending market collapse.
3) Trade talks continue between China and US as tariff deadline nears causing worries of talks failing. But after meeting with his advisers and Chinese officials, President Trump has extended that deadline citing the talks are going so well. Negotiators have reached a compromise on key issues, such as China’s requirement that American companies give intellectual property and technology to do business in China, more purchases of agriculture and energy products such as liquid natural gas. But so far, there hasn’t been a signing of an official agreement.
4) 22 FEB 19 Stock market closing:
Dow 26,031.81 up 181.18 Nasdaq 7,527.54 up 67.84 S&P 500 2,792.67 up 17.79
This week’s episode Sammy BE, James Lymon and Jon Don “On The Boards”, discuss the G7 summit-conference, that President Donald Trump attended.
The trio discussed the economic and financial impact of the G7 meeting amongst the world’s most developed countries. Topics ranged from manufacturing, tariffs, trade, deficit, and surplus were discussed among the group, as well as other relevant topics in relation to the economy and finance in general, because this is what we do… THE EFR PODCAST…….
US trade deficit widened as imported products from China helped to increase the deficit further along. The deficit widened about $ 4 billion dollars (US) from the previous months of May and June 2016. In May 2016 the deficit rose to over $41 billion dollars compared to $37.5 billion in April 2016.
Insiders are calling it one of the biggest, if not the biggest trade imbalances since the beginning of 2016. Computers and cellphones imported from China were the main products that added an increase to the trade deficit.
2016 exports have not faring well because of the strength of the dollar against other currencies. The dollar has become more intuitive as of late and the steam does not seem to be slowing down, analyst predict the dollar to remain strong for the remainder of the year. –SB