The Central Bank of China instituted key interest rate reforms on Saturday, August 17, 2019. The China’s Central Bank did this to help companies and corporations with borrowing costs.
China has been suffering from the trade war with the US. The lower interest rates could help companies with lowering their borrowing costs. The central bank will be trying to improve thier interest rates, which will then assist these companies in borrowing costs that would be minimal.
China’s State Council indicated they want the country to focus on market based reformation, which will then lower real interest rates significantly. -SB
1) Retail giant Walmart reported a strong second quarter and raised its earnings expectations for the year. This news eases concerns about consumer demand dropping because of the trade war with China. Shoppers spent more at stores and websites, indicating the consumer economy has not lost steam. Walmart posted a 20 quarter or five years of growth unmatched by any other retailer. The retailer gets 56% of its revenues from grocery sales, so it is less vulnerable to tariffs.
2) In July, American’s spent more at retail stores and restaurants, indicating the economic growth remains healthy, despite fears of a coming global economic slowdown and possible recession. Despite such fears, consumer confidence remains steady. Most economists are not forecasting a recession, because consumer spending and the job market remains strong.
3) Saudi Arabia is ramping up its oil exports to China, with crude shipments doubled over the last year, while its oil exports to America have dropped by nearly two thirds. This shift has occurred in part from oil embargo on Iran, which has caused Asian importers to shift away from Iran to other sources, aided by U.S. growing independence of any oil imports. The U.S. is becoming the worlds largest producer of oil.
4) Stock market closings for – 15 AUG 19:
Dow 25,579.39 up 99.97 Nasdaq 7,766.62 down 7.32 S&P 500 2,847.60 up 7.00
1) Boeing aircraft has not received any new orders for their 737 MAX in six months. This could give Boeing’s competitor Airbus a major market advantage having made 389 commercial plane deliveries in the same six months, making Airbus the largest supplier of this market segment with its A320 design. The grounding of the 737 MAX has forced Boeing to park completed aircraft to await its air worthiness to be restored.
2) Signs of inflation are increasing as U.S. consumer prices increased broadly in July. Expectations are for the Federal Reserve to again cut interest rates next month as much as half a percentage point in September. Continue trade tensions between China and America out weight fears of inflation so interest rates will continue to remain low, if not go lower.
3) Fears grow that protests in Hong Kong, which have persisted for the last two months, could have a lasting detrimental effect on U.S. and global markets. Hong Kong operates with a high degree of autonomy from China, having its own currency and judiciary system. This is fueling the rising concerns of investors of a major violent eruption of conflict between Hong Kong and main line China, coupled with concerns over U.S. – China trade war and the total impact on the world markets. With Hong Kong a financial hub, an invasion by Chinese troops with sever repressive measures on the people could disrupt other markets across the world. Furthermore, violence with loss of life could make it impossible for President Trump to resolve differences with China.
4) Stock market closings for – 13 AUG 19:
Dow 26,279.91 up 382.20 Nasdaq 8,016.36 up 152.95 S&P 500 2,926.32 up 43.23
1) The electric car company Tesla Inc is being sued claiming the company limited battery range of its older vehicles using software updates. The alleged intent was for Tesla to avoid costly fixes to defective batteries. The lawsuit is seeking class action status for thousands of Model S and X owners. The suit claims that older generation batteries had their range curtailed by an automatic software update. As a result of a battery fire, Tesla claims they are revising charge and thermal management settings via the software to further protect the battery and improve battery longevity.
2) The Chinese-American trade war hasn’t been bad for all nations, other nations are experiencing increase trade as a result of the war. Australia is the biggest beneficiary with exports to China of natural resources. Second is Switzerland, the third is Mexico which has replaced China as U.S. largest exporter. Fourth is Brazil who is benefitting from agricultural export to China and the fifth is Canada.
3) Malaysia is expanding its efforts to prosecute seventeen Goldman Sachs executives, who were allegedly involved in misleading investors in a $6.5 billion dollar bond sale. The bonds were for the state investment fund, 1 Malaysia Development Bhd or 1MDB. Charges include executives knowing that funds would be siphon off so Malaysia is also seeking to recoup funds and fees.
4) Stock market closings for – 9 AUG 19:
Dow 26,287.44 down 90.75 Nasdaq 7,959.14 down 80.02 S&P 500 2,918.65 down 19.44
1) Mexico has become America’s largest trading partner as a result of the U.S. – China trade war. For the first half of 2019, trade between America and Mexico was $309 billion dollars worth of goods, just over 15% of all U.S. trade. In comparison, trade with Canada was $306 billion dollars and China at $271 billion dollars. Trade with Mexico has been steadily rising for several decades, while trade with Canada has historically been high it’s always been flat.
2) A battle may be developing between Amazon and FedEx over handling packages, because of surging e-commerce shipments. With their ground delivery deal ending, FedEx is deepening its pullback from Amazon. The ending of two delivery contracts with Amazon means FedEx will have to seek out new major customers for lost sales while Amazon will now depend more on the U.S. Postal Service and UPS. FedEx is seeking to serve major e-commerce companies such as WalMart as the one-day delivery service for e-commerce heats up.
3) Lift, the internet based ride sharing rival to Uber may become profitable sooner than anyone had predicted. It’s growth is accelerating faster than anticipated, which clears the path to profitability. Some are speculating that 2019 might be Lift’s ‘peak loss’ year with losses being less than 2018. Wall Street is acting positive over the news with Lift’s stock rising from an overnight boost of 4%.
4) Stock market closings for – 9 AUG 19:
Dow 26,378.19 up 371.12 Nasdaq 8,039.16 up 176.33 S&P 500 2,938.09 up 54.11
1) Disney, the owner of the Star Wars franchise rights, is finding that today’s kids are not as interested in Star Wars as previous generations have been. While the last of the trilogies have turned a profit, they have not met the success of previous movies. Purchased from Lucasfilm Ltd in 2012 for $4.05 billion dollars, Disney is worried about the long term profitability of the franchise. It’s newly opened attraction Star Wars theme-park hasn’t meet expectations, indicated the young are not entranced by the intergalactic saga.
2) Gold continues to increase in value as more jittery investors flee traditional havens for money, to the supposed safety of gold ownership. With gold now at $1,500 per ounce, it is outperforming stocks this year. Concerns over the world economy from uncertainty of the U.S. and China trade war, China’s currency, oil and repercussions from political hot spots across the world have all combined to form a economic climate of fear and uncertainty. All foretell of a global slow down in growth, and as always the case, gold provides safety better than money in economic hard times.
3) A federal judge has ordered litigation over defective General Motors ignition switches to be narrowed in claims by owners. Owners claimed they lost value in their vehicles because of the defect, but the judge ruled the owners have failed to show the value of their vehicles has declined as a result of the defect. Instead, damages could only be measured by costs to repair defective vehicles, which is zero if GM paid for repairs. This defect is linked to 124 deaths.
4) Stock market closings for – 7 AUG 19:
Dow 26,007.07 down 22.45 Nasdaq 7,862.83 up 29.56 S&P 500 2,883.98 up 2.21
1) Stock markets fell sharply over new trade war moves with the Dow dropping over 700 points and the S&P and Nasdaq also sharply dropping too. Troubles renewed with China devaluating its currency, opening at seven yuan to the U.S. dollar. In return President Trump accused China of manipulating its currency which suggests the Chinese have abandoned all hopes of resolving the trade war with America, and instead are moving in another direction for the future. Reports are that China has asked state owned companies to suspend U.S. agriculture imports. A weaker Chinese currency gives them an unfair export advantage, and so can be used as a potent weapon in the trade war.
2) Fears continue to increase over a near future recession, with bond yields giving the highest alert since 2007. The 10-year notes sank on Monday to 1.74% with fears of it sinking to a low of 1.5%. This is further pressure for the feds to further cut interest rates to starve off a recession. There are further concerns about the trade war with China that America will move to let the dollar weaken to counter China’s devaluation. Wall Street’s VIX volatility index, also know as their ‘fear gage’ rose to 21.48, its highest level since May 9, with Asian markets also plummeting.
3) Huawei, China’s manufacture of smart phones, might release a phone running the HongMeng OS by the end of the year. HongMeng OS is a competitor to Google’s Android OS, which would free Huawie paying licensing fees for other’s operating systems, allowing Huawei to undercut competition in the low end smart phone market. This is a response to President Trump’s executive order banning Google and Qualcomm from Huawei over security risks. The HongMeng OS is considered part of a long term strategy.
4) Stock market closings for – 5 AUG 19:
Dow 25,717.74 down 767.27 Nasdaq 7,726.04 down 278.03 S&P 500 2,844.74 down 87.31
1) Even though U.S. employers slowed their hiring in July, there was 164,000 jobs added to the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% for a second month with average hourly earnings rising 3.2% which was up from June. The unemployment is near a half century low, and with the U.S. economy on a firm footing, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is growing 2.1%.
2) The price of oil declined the most in over four years with President Trump’s latest tariff threat. Oil plunged 8%, for the steepest one day drop, from concerns of a global slowdown. A slowdown results in less consumption of oil, and therefore less demand. For months, the stalled China-U.S. trade negotiations is fueling concerns for the future of world economies.
3) Online delivery of prepared food is surging with people able to order a full restaurant meal from home using smart phones, and have them delivered much as a pizza is. By 2020, it’s forecast that more than half of restaurant spending will be off premise from deliveries, drive-thoughs and takeaway meals. More than 80% of the restaurants industry growth will be off premise sales, with Americans spending more on restaurants than at grocery stores.
4) Stock market closings for – 2 AUG 19:
Dow 26,485.01 down 98.41 Nasdaq 8,004.07 down 107.05 S&P 500 2,932.05 down 21.51
1) Goldman Sachs, the investment bank, is starting a three year, $100 million dollar plan to overhaul its stock trading platform. The project, which is named Atlas, is aimed at the world’s largest quant hedge funds with the intent of shaving milliseconds off trades. The quantitative hedge fund investment has become a cutthroat business as other firms have been winning a larger share of a shrinking pie, and Goldman Sachs realizes they have been falling behind the technology race. They must make a strong effort to push forward the technology of electronic trading to maintain their market position.
2) As trade talks continue in Shanghai between China and America, President Trump has imposed an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion dollars worth of Chinese imports. These imports are due to start on the first of September. This does not include the $250 billion dollars already tariffed at 25%. The President blames the Chinese for imposing the tariff, saying China is not following through their promise to buy more American agricultural products and not doing more to stem sales of synthetic opioid fentanyl.
3) Lowe’s, the home improvement retailer, has told thousands of its workers that their jobs are being eliminated. The company will out source the jobs of maintenance and assembly workers to third party companies. These workers assembly products such as wheelbarrows and grills, claiming this will allow store associates to spend more time on the sales floor serving customers. Lowe’s employs 190,000 full time and 110,000 part time workers.
4) Stock market closings for – 1 AUG 19:
Dow 26,583.42 down 280.85 Nasdaq 8,111.12 down 64.30 S&P 500 2,953.56 down 26.82
1) One of the nations largest credit card companies Capital One announced a massive data breach which affects tens of millions of customers. This news has sent its stock down 7%. Most of the data lost to hackers was personal information such as names, addresses, phone numbers and income of consumers and small businesses from 2005 to 2019. About 140,000 Social Security numbers of customers was comprised with 80,000 bank links. This breach is one of the largest yet.
2) China and America have resumed trade talks in Shanghai after a three month suspension. President Trump has criticized China for it’s reluctance to buy U.S. agricultural products, the Chinese using this as a pressure point on Trump with many farmers having previously supported Trump. There are low expectations for a breakthrough in trade talks because the two sides are further apart now than three months ago.
3) American consumer confidence is at the highest level since November negating its June drop. The index rose from June’s 124.3 to 135.7. The index measures consumers’ assessment of the current economic conditions and their expectations for the next six months. Consumers have little concern for trade tensions with China or a slowing economy. This should translate into robust spending in the near future.
4) Stock market closings for – 30 JUL 19:
Dow ,198.02 down 23.33 Nasdaq 8,273.61 down 19.72 S&P 500 3,013.18 down 7.79