4 November 2019

1) In their Friday report the U.S. economy added 128,000 jobs in October, a report considered to be very strong when many economist expected a gain of 75,000 jobs. Furthermore, job growth for September was revised upwards to 180,000 from 136,000 and August jobs up from 168,000 to 219,000 new jobs. The good news has spurred the stock markets up.

2) Alphabet, the parent company for Google, is acquiring Fitbit in an attempt to strengthen the search giant’s lineup of hardware and move further into the health market. The $2.1 billion dollar sale will strengthen Fitbit to complete against Apple. Fitbit has slowed since Apple introduced its smartwatch.

3) The U.S. dollar may be weakening with Citi latest projections that the dollar index could fall to as low as 85 as the Federal Reserve increases its balance sheet by purchasing more bond assets. The dollar usually weakens when bond yields fall. If the dollar index were to weaken to 85, the euro could strengthen to 1.21 which helps emerging market equities. Additionally, capital could flow to the Hong Kong market if the dollar weakens, making a lot of stocks very attractive.

4) Stock market closings for – 1 NOV 19:

Dow             27,347.36    up    301.13
Nasdaq          8,386.40    up      94.04
S&P 500         3,066.91    up      29.35

10 Year Yield:    up   at    1.73%

Oil:    up   at    $56.23

6 August 2019

1) Stock markets fell sharply over new trade war moves with the Dow dropping over 700 points and the S&P and Nasdaq also sharply dropping too. Troubles renewed with China devaluating its currency, opening at seven yuan to the U.S. dollar. In return President Trump accused China of manipulating its currency which suggests the Chinese have abandoned all hopes of resolving the trade war with America, and instead are moving in another direction for the future. Reports are that China has asked state owned companies to suspend U.S. agriculture imports. A weaker Chinese currency gives them an unfair export advantage, and so can be used as a potent weapon in the trade war.

2) Fears continue to increase over a near future recession, with bond yields giving the highest alert since 2007. The 10-year notes sank on Monday to 1.74% with fears of it sinking to a low of 1.5%. This is further pressure for the feds to further cut interest rates to starve off a recession. There are further concerns about the trade war with China that America will move to let the dollar weaken to counter China’s devaluation. Wall Street’s VIX volatility index, also know as their ‘fear gage’ rose to 21.48, its highest level since May 9, with Asian markets also plummeting.

3) Huawei, China’s manufacture of smart phones, might release a phone running the HongMeng OS by the end of the year. HongMeng OS is a competitor to Google’s Android OS, which would free Huawie paying licensing fees for other’s operating systems, allowing Huawei to undercut competition in the low end smart phone market. This is a response to President Trump’s executive order banning Google and Qualcomm from Huawei over security risks. The HongMeng OS is considered part of a long term strategy.

4) Stock market closings for – 5 AUG 19:

Dow             25,717.74    down    767.27
Nasdaq           7,726.04    down    278.03
S&P 500          2,844.74    down       87.31

10 Year Yield:     down   at    1.74%

Oil:    up   at    $55.01

4 June 2019

1) The electric car manufacturer Tesla has been getting significant revenues by selling credits to other car makers who need to offset sales of polluting vehicles. General Motors and Fiat-Chrysler disclosed that they have reached agreements to buy federal greenhouse gas credits from Tesla. These companies want to bank their green credits for use later when emission rules get tougher, especially if democrats regain the White House.

2) Bond yields are dropping at the fastest rate since th 2008 global financial crisis, in anticipation that the Federal reserve will cut interest rates to counter the fallout from the trade tensions. The two year Treasury yield has fallen for five straight days. This is likely to have damaging effects on business confidence as businesses become more concerned with future growth.

3) The U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell by more than 2 points in May, the lowest level since September 2009, 6 points over the last year. This index reflects a drop in new orders or postponement of orders due to the uncertainty of the economic future. Manufactures are having to hold selling prices lower because of diminished sales, which in turn is squeezing profits.

4) 3 JUN 19 Stock market closings:

Dow             24,819.78   up            4.74
Nasdaq          7,333.02   down   120.13
S&P 500         2,744.45   down        7.61

10 Year Yield:    down   at    2.08%

Oil:    down   at    $52.85