13 October 2020

1) More bad news for the airline business with another expected huge round of losses coming. The second quarter was the worst financial hit in the history of the airline business, and the third quarter won’t be much better. The airlines reported a second quarter combined losses of $12 billion dollars with revenues down 86% for the previous year. Analysts are forecasting a $10 billion dollar lost for the third quarter. The airlines did reduce cost by trimming expenditures, reducing labor as employees took buyouts and early retirement packages. Also, a modest pickup in travel during the summer has help with increased revenues, but forecast are for sales to be down 75% in the third quarter.

2) Oil prices fell the most in a week because the Gulf of Mexico production is set to resume and Libya is reopening its largest oil field. The hurricane had shut down about 92% of oil production in the Gulf, while at the same time Libya’s largest field will reach its daily capacity of almost 300,000 barrels in ten days. World demand for oil crude has dropped with refineries operating near minimum capacity.

3) The third major opioid makers Mallinckrodt Pic has become the third major manufacture of opioid to go bankrupt after being swamped by claims with respect to profiting from the U.S. opioid epidemic. The drug company filed for Chapter 11 after getting creditors and claimants to agree on a restructuring plan. This plan hands over ownership to bondholders, wipes out shareholders and sets aside $1.6 billion dollars to resolve all its opioid litigation. Current shareholders will most likely get nothing, with stock prices in the penny range for most of the year. The Chapter 11 filing estimates liabilities of $1 billion to $10 billion dollars and assets in the same range.

4) Stock market closings for – 12 OCT 20:

Dow 28,837.52 up 250.62
Nasdaq 11,876.26 up 296.32
S&P 500 3,534.22 up 57.09

10 Year Yield: unchanged at 0.78%

Oil: down at $39.44

20 April 2020

1) The coronavirus pandemic and subsequent ‘sheltering in place’ is changing the American supermarkets. Online shopping of groceries had been somewhat of an awkward luxury service, that was growing ever so slowly, despite efforts of retailers to promote the new service. But the lockdown, stay at home orders have catapulted the service forward by up to a fifty times (not percent) increase in usage. Stores have been left struggling to meet the demand with many unable to keep up with that demand. When the pandemic ends, it will have forever changed the supermarket for many Americans, for once customers have used and got use to the service, then they will most likely continue using online grocery shopping, at least in part. But online shopping eliminates one of the big mainstays of modern supermarkets, the psychology of shopping with the browsing and impulse buying. The counter to this is automation which reduces the staff and labor cost of traditional retail stores, just as Amazon has done with dry goods.

2) The Chinese maker of driverless cars, Pony.ai, has launched a delivery service in Irvine California using its robot cars to deliver to people stuck at home from the virus. Teaming up with the e-commerce site Yamibuy, orders from Yamibuy get delivered to the customers homes. Each car can deliver between 500 to 700 packages a day. A year ago the company launched a robo-taxi service in Irvine, but with the ‘shelter in place’ order, their taxis were repurposed for deliveries.

3) Everyone is baffled over how the stock market continues to hold, even climbing, with what is happening today. For example-
a) Unemployment is now at 22 million and still climbing
b) Threat of large numbers of businesses going bankrupt
c) Recession starting, which most expect will last at least 12 months
d) Automation expected to eliminate up to 50% of jobs in 15 to 25 years
e) Global coronavirus cases surpass 1.5 million and continue growing
At a time when the markets would normally be crashing down from all the uncertainty, what is holding them up? Experts think because of the quick reaction of the government in passing the $2.2 trillion dollar economic stimulus waylaid market fears by showing something is being done. Also, Warren Buffett’s axiom, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy only when others are fearful.” Finally, the ‘social distancing’ measures seems to be controlling the virus, thereby lessening its economic effects in the long run.

4) Stock market closings for – 17 APR 20:

Dow 24,242.49 up 704.81
Nasdaq 8,650.14 up 117.78
S&P 500 2,874.56 up 75.01

10 Year Yield: up at 0.65%

Oil: down at $18.12

20 March 2020

1) Today, more coronavirus concerns have surfaced that most airlines will go bankrupt soon without government bailouts. The virus has shut global aviation down because of virus outbreaks as well as travel restrictions that are intended to contain the virus. Within weeks, many airlines will need government help to avoid bankruptcy. Major U.S. airlines are seeking $50 billion dollars in financial assistance because of the steep falloff in U.S. travel demand. Estimates are for $25 billion dollars in grants, $25 billion dollars in loans and significant tax relief to survive.

2) Monday markets opened with another sharp downfall of all three major markets despite the Federal Reserve embarking on a massive monetary stimulus campaign to curb the slowing economic growth from the coronavirus. Shortly after opening, trading was halted for fifteen minutes from a ‘circuit breaker’ triggered by the S & P 500. The U.S. central bank has launched a massive $700 billion dollar quantitative easing program designed to help cushion the economic downside from the virus. The Dow was down 11% while both the Nasdaq and S & P fell more than 10%.

3) As fears grow of a world economic downturn, which will put economic stress on the U.S. economy, people are becoming concerned about their jobs. American workers may lose their jobs by the millions as the effects of the virus ripple through the financial system, the impact being devastating. The disease has spread rapidly around the world with whole nations shutting down as well as major cities. It’s unknown just what the impact will be for the world economy, when major economic areas isolate themselves from the system, even for a few weeks. Many segments of the economy are reporting significant problems which can lead to further problems across the U.S. and world economy. All this translates into layoffs, at a time when the young people of America have limited opportunities.

4) Stock market closings for – 19 MAR 20:

Dow 20,087.19 up 88.27
Nasdaq 7,150.58 up 160.73
S&P 500 2,409.39 up 11.29

10 Year Yield: down at 1.12%

Oil: up at $25.08

16 March 2020

1) Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft is stepping down from the company’s board of directors, which makes it the biggest boardroom departure in the tech industry, since the death of Apple’s Steve Jobs. Additionally, Mr. Gates is vacating his board seat at Berkshire Hathaway Inc., intending to devote his time to his philanthropic efforts. He will continue serving as a technical advisor to Microsoft.

2) Oil prices climbed up 5% on the announcement by President Trump that the Department of Energy would purchase crude for the nations’ strategic petroleum reserve. The objective is to boost oil prices to keep shale producers in business, because oil needs to be $40 or more a barrel to break even, depending on the particulars of an oil field. The shale oil companies are further in trouble because they are carrying a high debt level. Shale oil production is very capital intensive and therefore very sensitive to oil prices if companies aren’t to go bankrupt. Some suggest that the Russians engineered the rupture of the Saudi Arabia – Russian agreement to limit production levels as a means to cripple the U.S. shale oil production and thereby make America dependent on foreign oil again.

3) President Trump and the Congress have agreed on several provisions of a package, but have been far apart on others. Their discussions center on ways to minimize the economic impact of the coronavirus fears. One point is to ensure that every American can receive a virus test without consideration of money.

4) Stock market closings for – 13 MAR 20:

Dow 23,185.62 up 1985.00
Nasdaq 7,874.88 up 673.07
S&P 500 2,711.02 up 230.38
10 Year Yield: up at 0.95%
Oil: up at $32.93

17 January 2020

1) The trust funds for Social Security are in trouble and will run dry by 2035. But Social Security is not going bankrupt because the program’s primary source of revenue is payroll taxes, which at present is 12.4% of pay. So even if the trust fund should run out, Social Security still would have the money to largely keep up with benefits. A much greater danger for retirees is high inflation, for historically the first to suffer from a collapsing economy are those on fixed incomes.

2) The recently signed phase one agreement with China made for a cease-fire in the trade, but leaves the tariffs largely in place, with some considering the tariffs to be the new norm in international trade. China has committed to making $200 billion dollars in purchases from America. The agreement does not address the intellectual property issues, both the forced intellectual transfers and out right theft.

3) Claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, indicating a sustained strong labor market. Claims dropped 10,000 last week to 204,000 with the labor market remaining on a solid footing, the unemployment rate holding near a fifty year low of 3.5% for December. Layoffs were in manufacturing, transportation and warehousing.

4) Stock market closings for – 16 JAN 20:

Dow              29,297.64    up    267.42
Nasdaq          9,357.13    up      98.44
S&P 500         3,316.81    up      27.52

10 Year Yield:    up   at    1.81%

Oil:    up   at    $58.59

20 June 2019

1) The $800 billion dollar trucking industry is in a slowdown as retailers and manufacturers are shipping less. Freight rates have declined for the last six months with the spot market dropping 62.5% for May verses last year. Already, a few major trucking firms have gone bankrupt, with one laying off 550 employees. Even the major trucking companies FedEx, UPS and J.B. Hunt have experienced declines sparking fears of a slowdown of the economy.

2) Harley-Davidson is making good its promise to build more motorcycles outside the United States by partnering with China’s Qianjiang Motorcycle to produce smaller motorcycles. The new bike will have a 338 cubic centimeter engine verses the 601 cc engine for its domestic motorcycles. Harley-Davidson is trying to boost its overseas sales as its domestic market shrinks.

3) Expectations for future global growth and corporate profits have shrank as investor confidence continues to decline amid the trade war. Concerns of an economic slowdown further fuel fears of investors for the demise of global growth, despite America’s stock market now trading near its record high. Global profit expectations fell by the second largest amount on record. The giant retailer Walmart announced they will be laying off nearly 600 employees later this year.

4) Stock market closings for- 19 JUN 19:

Dow                 26,504.00    up    38.46
Nasdaq              7,987.32    up    33.44
S&P 500             2,926.46    up      8.71

10 Year Yield:    down   at    2.03%

Oil:    up   at    $54.14