15 October 2020

1) The much feared Diablo winds, along with its low humidity, will bring critical fire weather to Northern California through Friday, increasing the risks of wild fires. There are widespread red flag fire warnings for Northen California above San Francisco because of extremely dry, gusty, north to northeast winds which will bring critical fire conditions. With the relative humidity down into the single digits and teens, winds could reach about 45 mph, with gust up to 55 mph, both conditions very conducive to rapidly spread wild fires. The Diablo winds are much like the Santa Ana winds so familiar to Southern Californians.
2) Boeing’s troubles continue with no new orders for jets and more 737 MAX cancellations as the companies crisis continues. There were more orders for the 373 MAX canceled in September with delivery of only 11 total aircraft to customers, which is less than half the number from the same month a year ago. Furthermore, the quality flaws on the 787 Dreamliner continue to hamper efforts to develop an alternative cash cow to the 737 MAX. The major source of Boeing’s problems is the coronavirus pandemic, which continues to hurt the demand for jets, for Boeing as well as its rival Airbus, and this is a factor that neither aircraft manufacture has any control over.
3) The prices for crude oil are rising with the dollar’s decline, which in turn is boosting appeal of commodities priced in dollars. There are signs of oil demand increasing in Asia, which is helping lift the overall outlook for oil consumption. The company Rogsheng Petrochemical of Singapore is buying up oil futures to run its expanded refinery operation in Zhejiang this quarter. The outlook for refineries output remain precarious, with refining margins severely depressed for this time of the year. Refineries typically need a spread of more than $10 a barrel to make it profitable to process crude oil.
4) Stock market closings for – 14 OCT 20:
Dow 28,514.00 down 165.81
Nasdaq 11,768.73 down 95.17
S&P 500 3,488.67 down 23.26
10 Year Yield: unchanged at 0.72%
Oil: up at $41.22

23 September 2020

1) After Amazon’s Prime Day was postponed by the virus in July, it was tentatively reset for the fourth quarter. Amazon didn’t want their Prime Day to overlap with Black Friday, which set an upper limit to the date, so now the company is planning for the 13th and 14th of October. Prime Day is a very big retail day for Amazon, with their 2019 Prime Day grossing about $6 billion dollars in sales.

2) Another round of stimulus still remains on the burner and with the fall elections now closing in, both sides are saying they want a new stimulus bill with a second direct payment to the people. But the bill remains in limbo with no agreement on the details of the bill. The question on everyone’s minds is the direct payment checks to the people and how much they will be. No settlement on that question, but the rumors are this one will be based on each person’s income instead of the single lump sum of last time, with an upper limit of $1,200 per individuals. Only time will tell how much, or even if there is a personal payment, because if not passed before the elections, the possibility of passing will rapidly decrease.

3) The coronavirus has been a big stimulus for e-commerce from the stay at home shopping it stimulated, but surprisingly the home shopping boom has also been a boom for the shipping industry. Those huge ocean going ships stacked high with intermodal containers, their transpacific sea freight shipping rates have been sent to the highest on record, helping the container shipping industry in Asia. Household appliances imports have jumped 51% in August from last year, climbing for a third consecutive month. Shipments of computers, notebooks and other associated electronic gadgets has soared 169%. This increase consumer demand has shipping rates almost triple from this year’s low in March, when the pandemic led to border closures and a near halt in economic activity. With much of the world’s people housebound, the demand for electronic goods and do-it-yourself items has skyrocketed. There is also the coming Christmas holidays and therefore the stocking up in anticipation of sales.

4) Stock market closings for – 22 SEP 20:

Dow 27,288.18 up 140.48
Nasdaq 10,963.64 up 184.84
S&P 500 3,315.57 up 34.51

10 Year Yield: down at 0.66%

Oil: down at $39.55

21 October 2019

1) The mega brewers Anheuser-Busch and MillerCoors, America’s two largest brewers of beer, are embroiled in a legal battle with Anheuser-Busch claiming MillerCoors stole recipes and trade secrets. The legal conflict rose from attack ads in Super Bowl commercials last February. The legal war continues to escalate with suits and counter suits being filed by both companies. During discovery, Anheuser-Busch claims to have uncovered evidence MillerCoors had obtained trade secrets.

2) The very popular SUVs across the world has led to a nearly sixfold increase in the number of SUVs on the road since 2010, which makes them the second biggest contributor to the rise in carbon dioxide emissions. Only the generation of electrical power produces more carbon dioxide, although SUVs account for about a third of the emissions compared to power generation. SUVs are also the reason that oil demand from passenger cars has grown by 3.3 million barrels a day since 2010, while oil use has declined slightly for other kinds of cars.

3) The export of pork from America has hit an all time high. Buyers are stocking up in anticipation of a widening protein gap in China, the result of a pig killing disease in Asia. American exports jumped to 351,000 metric tons as both Mexico and China buy up future pork contracts, as well as sales of soybeans, another prime source of protein in Asia. The African swine fever has devastated pig herds causing domestic pork production to plunge.

4) Stock market closings for – 18 OCT 19:

Dow              26,770.20    down    255.68
Nasdaq           8,089.54    down      67.31
S&P 500          2,986.20    down      11.75

10 Year Yield:    down   at    1.75%

Oil:    down   at    $53.70

14 June 2019

1) Two tankers have been attacked near the Iran coast, which has caused oil prices to surge with fears that Iran may try to close the Gulf of Oman, which transports oil out of the Middle East. The choke point of the Strait of Hormuz is only 21 miles wide and handles 80% of the oil destined for Asia. Last month four other tankers were attacked near Fujairah using sabotage, which further fueled fears that Iran may become very aggressive in the region and against exports of oil.

2) With voters no longer showing a strong concern for the federal debt, the political support for reining in Federal spending and controlling the growing national debt is melting away with Republicans willing to accept a large deficit in exchange for tax cuts and Democrats making big spending promises in the 2020 campaigns. Some experts, who had once augured against the government growing debt, now say it may not be as critical a problem as they once thought.

3) The mega-retailer Target is upping the ante for e-commerce by offering same-day delivery on thousands of items for just $9.99. Using the delivery startup Shipt, which Target purchased nearly two years ago, the retailer is positioning itself to compete against Walmart and Amazon in what is becoming a ‘delivery time’ war of the major maga-retailers. The one day service will cover 65,000 items from 1,500 stores out of 1,800 stores in 47 states.

4) Stock market closings for- 13 JUN 19:

Dow               26,106.77    up    101.94
Nasdaq            7,837.13    up      44.41
S&P 500           2,891.64    up      11.80

10 Year Yield:    down   at    2.09%

Oil:    down   at    $52.11

22 April 19

1) New Jeep Wranglers are being offered for as much as $9,500 dollars off list price. There is an over supply of leftover JL Wranglers, which makes for some really good deals for auto buyers wanting a traditional style SUV.

2) Panama disease is a highly contagious infection which is ravaging banana plantations across the world from Asia to Australia. The Philippines has suffered $400 million dollars in losses, where the world banana cultivation is a $44 billion dollar industry involving the livelihood of 400 million people.

3) Japan’s Mitsubishi Aircraft it about to build Japan’s first airliner in fifty years, to compete with Boeing and Airbus. The small 88 passenger airliner is for the regional air carrier business. Other small aircraft manufactures are also getting into the small carrier airline business betting they can build smaller, simpler and cheaper airliners than Boeing or Airbus.

4) 19 APR 19 Stock market closed for Easter:

5 December 2018

1) World stock markets fell dramatically, the Dow down 800 points, a result of uncertainty about China and American trade war.  There wasn’t any signing of agreements at G20, nor has China made any public statements about resolving the conflict since then, adding to the uncertainty.  Also contributing are fears of the American economy sliding downward in the near future.

2) A recall of 12 million pounds of beef because of salmonella outbreak, has stretched across the country.  So far, there has been 240 cases of infection in 6 states.

3) New carbon taxes in France aimed at reducing global warming effects has resulted in extensive riots forcing France to back off the taxes.

4) 4 DEC 18    Stock market closings:    The stock market is like a rectal thermometer- rude and crude, but surprisingly effective in showing sickness.

Dow                           25,027.07          down       799.36
Nasdaq                        7,158.43          down       283.09
S&P 500                       2,700.06          down          90.31

10 Year Yield:     down   at    2.92%

Oil:      down   at    $52.61

20 November 2018

New article posted below, titled “Recession Worries?”

1) China-United States APEC summit ends without a joint statement, a result of US-China tensions.  US warns other Asian nations about investing in Chinese infrastructure, specifically China’s ‘Belt and Road’ project, and becoming overwhelmed with debt.

2) Survival of four major retailers may be determined by sales this Christmas season. Sears, JC Penny and Barnes & Noble, and while Toys-‘R’-Us has already closed all its stores, it is trying to capitalize on its name brand.

3) The volatile stock markets give fears among older retirees of a possible crash, resulting in lost of their savings.  The baby boomer’s savings have not recovered from the 2008 crash.

4) 19 NOV 18    Stock market closings:   Stock market dragged down by major losses of five large technology companies.

Dow                       25,017.44               down      395.78
Nasdaq                    7,028.48               down      219.40
S&P 500                   2,690.73               down         45.54

10 Year Yield:    down   at    3.06%

Oil:    up   at    $57.40

13 November 2018

1) The German firm SAP Technologies is buying the US company Qualitrics International for $8.3 billion dollars.  Qualitrics is on verge of its market debut.

2) The Japanese technology firm Softbank wants to raise $24 billion dollars in one of the worlds largest IPO’s (Initial Public Offering).

3) Apple’s stock plunged 5% because of weak demand of it’s iPhone, plus GE’s stock is below $8 a share, its CEO is considering asset sales.  These and other world concerns of economic growth and world economies is blamed for the sudden downturn of American markets.

4) 12 NOV 18     Stock market closings:

Dow                        25,387.18            down        602.12
Nasdaq                     7,200.87            down        206.03
S&P 500                    2,726.22            down          54.79

10 Year Yield:        unchanged      3.19%

Oil:       down   at    $59.06

12 November 2018

1) Retailers plan for a blockbuster holiday season in sales that will top $1 trillion dollars for the first time this year.

2) China has an un-occupancy rate almost twice that of any other advance Asian country or the US, with 50 million homes unoccupied or 22% houses empty.  This is a result of property speculation coming up short.

3) Oil prices continue their downward slide, now down 20% from its recent peak. This is the 10th consecutive decline and matching the longest skid since 1984.  In turn, stock markets, both domestic and international markets have seen a decline in prices.

4) 9 NOV 18    Stock market closings:   Oil supply increasing as demand drops.

Dow                    25,989.30        down       201.92
Nasdaq                 7,406.90        down       123.98
S&P 500                2,781.01        down          25.82

10 Year Yield:     down   at    3.19%

Oil:       down   at    $59.87

7 November 2018

1) Ford Motor Co. is making great inroads in the Indian auto market after investing $2 billion dollars in India, such as opening 100 new dealerships in the last 18 months.  This has resulted in profits for the first time in a decade.

2) Chinese stocks are sending warning signals about China’s economy with stocks closing lower.  In a trade war, China was counting on its powerful domestic-consumption engine to provide protection for investors in the nation’s stocks, but that’s not working out so well.  China’s domestic consumer suppliers are reporting lower earnings than expected.  China’s consumers just aren’t spending as they had been.

3) 6 NOV 18     Stock market closings:

Dow                    25,635.01    up    173.31
Nasdaq                 7,375.96    up      47.11
S&P 500                2,755.45    up      17.14

10 Year Yield:    up   at    3.21%

Oil:     down   at    $61.78