EFR PODCAST EP. #32: TAX SZN

We’rrreeeeeeee back new episode of the EFR Podcast with your hosts Businessman Bassey (Sammy BE) @Ecofiretv, James Lyman @ObsoletePeople (finally getting a twitter handle), and on the engineering boards Jon “The Don” Sterling @TheDramaBlock.

The trio discussed the tax season in the U.S. of A, month of April, as well as topics ranging from President Donald J. Trump’s tax returns, American citizen having to pay taxes (or if you don’t want to, face the penalty & consequences), @ YOUR OWN RISK, of course.

As well as topics, such as Herman Cain & Stephen Moore possibly being nominated for the prestigious Federal Reserve Board; then both gentlemen dropping out from the nomination process; and plenty of more economic, financial and business discussion topics…..

This is a must listen to episode, for your ears…

As always #BEBless #StayBless #GODBLESS #RealRecognizeDeal

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3) www.EconomicandFinanceReport.com (Economic & Finance Blog)

4)@Economic-FinanceReport (Podcast/Online Show)

5)www.youtube.com/channel/UCWZo5bug…Nlb2VRfDCQ/videos (EFR.Tv Youtube)

6)www.SammyBuysHomes.com (Real Estate Investment)

7) www.TraderSoul.com (Financial Trading Website)

Recession Worries?

Some analyst are claiming the good economic indicators we are seeing today are really portents of a recession.

James Lyman BSAE, BSEE, MSSM

Fears of another recession are particularly acute for the millennials and Z-generation, because in general, they are the first to suffer the most from an economic downturn.  This was seen in the 2008 downturn and is a consequence of our service economy, where for so many Americans, their economic value is as consumers, rather than substantive contributors to society.  As consumers, they are particularly vulnerable to any economic downturn . . . to a recession.  So what is causing some economic experts to think we may soon have a recession?

Some point to the fact that for the last 10 recessions in America, a recession quickly followed when the economy hits full employment. In other words, when the unemployment rate reaches a minimum cusp . . . in as little as a few months the economy starts a down slide.  The average time between when the cusp occurs and when the recessions starts is just 3.8 months, and for 3 downturns it was just 1 month after, with the longest being 10 months.  This trend started in 1950, a time when automation was starting to make inroads in American society, and a decade or so before the decline of manufacturing in America started. Therefore, we must view this hypophysis with the realization that the environment was changing, and that this may have had a profound effect.

But the problem with using this correlation as a predictor is it’s all hindsight.  To know if a recession is nearing, you must know when you’ve actually reached the cusp.  This April, the unemployment was down to 3.9 percent, a 17-year low, but since then it’s dropped to 3.7% and may well continue down.  There’s no way of knowing when the cusp has been reached until the unemployment rate starts back up.  But with the rate already one of the lowest, there’s less and less chance it will go much lower.

A low employment rate indicates that the labor force is fully utilized, but why would that indicate the onset of a recession?  What’s the forcing function? What’s the relationship?  Without knowing that, using this empirical relationship could be erroneous.  For one thing, the hypotheses assumes a constant environment, specifically when it doesn’t consider the growing obsolescence of people, and their displacement by technology.  This is an important consideration for our hyper-consumerism economy, because displacement of workers means fewer consumers and therefore a shrinking economy.  A shrinking economy, for whatever reason, is the basic ingredient for a recession.  So it’s safe to say, that the good economic indicators we are presently seeing, will most likely not continue for long, regardless of which political entity is in power.

Even though the past performance of a system is no guarantee of how that system will react in the future, you can’t just ‘out-of-hand’ dismiss the correlation of low unemployment cusp and the onset of a recession.  This next unemployment low may not foretell the onset of a recession, but then again, it may just as well happen as seen with the last ten recessions.  We can’t know with any certainty until after the fact.  While President Trump has created a stimulating environment for American business and the economy, there are a number of factors in which neither he, or anyone else has control over, that can bring an end to that stimulation.  The instability of world economies in Europe and Asia to start with. China’s blend of communism and capitalistic economics is showing to be more and more unstable.  If China’s down slide continues, what effects will that have on our economy?  Again, there’s no way of knowing until after the fact.

The millennials and Z-generation are the first to feel and suffer in a recession, mainly because so many of them now have ‘shallow’ jobs requiring little to no skills.  People who’s work hours can easily be reduced when business slows, or simply laid off.  In turn, with reduced income their effect as consumers is reduced, and that in turn further exacerbates an economic downturn.

Possibly the cusp in unemployment isn’t a forcing function, rather it is an artifact of other forces causing a downturn, that in turn results in unemployment starting to rise again to form that cusp.  This would make the validity of the hypophysis more palatable and hence acceptable.  There are other indicators that economic problems may be just over the horizon, such as the contraction of the big box stores, the foundation of hyper-consumerism.  Also there are problems with house sales declining, rising mortgage rates and a decline in house prices.  The rising US debt is adding further pressure on the economy to support what many consider unsustainable.  And finally, the frailty of so many world economies presents a major threat to the US economic viability.  A sever downturn of the fragile economies such as Greece, Spain or Italy could start a chain reaction that also pulls America’s economy down.

But even if the millennials and Z-generation know of a coming recession, what can they do to protect themselves?  Well, first of all, minimize personal debt as much as possible, and that starts right now. Just because things are booming now, that doesn’t mean you have to go out and buy things on credit.  Shop the same as when times aren’t so rosy.  If at all possible, save up and pay cash. The personal debt factor, more than anything else, is what causes people their biggest problems in a recession, especially if looking for new work.

Be more flexible by increasing skills and education now, particularly technical skills such as mathematics and science.  This is the twenty-first century, not the eighteenth or nineteenth century, and eighteenth century people have far fewer opportunities in this century.  Try and avoid careers directly involved in hyper consumerism, since consumerism is usually the first to feel the effects of a recession.  In other words, try and stay off the thin ice.

More than anything else, thinking ahead can do more
than anything else, in weathering a recession.

11 October 2018

New article posted below titled, “SEARS SEEMS TO BE GOING THRU BANKRUPTCY………”

1) A wave of warm weather has proved to be an economic boost to England’s economy.

2) The stock market cratered today with a massive 830 point drop in the Dow Jones.  President Trump blamed the sudden drop on hikes of the interest rates, with money flowing out of the stock market into the bond market.

3) There are questions if this is a correction of the markets or the start of a decline from the long run of stock gains.

4) 10 OCT 18 Stock market closings:  Dow and S&P down 3%, while Nasdaq is down 4%

Dow:                  25,598.74            down           831.83
Nasdaq                7,422.05            down           315.97
S&P 500               2,785.68            down             94.66

10 Year Yield:    up   at   3.22%

Oil:      $72.71    down   from    $74.69

3 September 2018

New article posted below titled “CHINA LOOKING TO REFORM AFTER GROWING TIT 4 TAT WITH U.S.”

1) Real wages remained stagnant, with household incomes $4,000 less than 16 years ago.  This despite an expanding economy, with record stock prices, soaring corporate profits and a giant stimulus tax cuts.

2) The new tax cuts were suppose to depress housing prices to further stimulate the economy.  However, after nine months, the downward shift of prices has not materialized.  While the housing market is showing signs of weakness, in particular in new construction, prices continue to climb.

3) Many experts continue to warn of a coming recession.  They base their premise on the unemployment reaching a cusp limit, the yield curve flattening, increasing inflation rate, decline in home sales, a rise in credit card debt and late payments, and finally the economic cycle suggests a contraction.

4) 31 AUG 18    Stock   price   closings:

Dow              25,964.82   down    22.10
Nasdaq           8,109.54         up    21.17
S&P 500          2,901.52         up      0.39

10 Year Yield:    down   at   2.85%

Oil:      down    at   $69.88

27 August 2018

1) The EU (European Union) is warning about possible problems for Britain if she exits the union next year without the formal exit process.  Fears of higher credit card fees and delays in medical payment are among some of the possible problems.

2) The city of Chicago has a pension deficient of $28 billion dollars.  City leaders are proposing a $10 billion dollar issuance of bonds to gain the capital needed to continue its pension obligations, but this will further in debt the city.

3) China and US trade talks failed, causing the Chinese markets to free fall over the uncertainty of China’s economy.

4) 24 AUG 18     Stock  market  closings:

Dow               25,790.35     up     133.37
Nasdaq            7,945.98     up       67.52
S&P 500           2,874.69     up       17.71

10 Year Yield:     up   at   2.83%

Oil:     up   at    $68.52

LATEST TRADE WARS: MEXICO IMPOSES TARIFFS ON U.S. IMPORTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

By: Economic & Finance Report

Mexico has imposed tariffs on American imports such as pork, apples, grapes, cheese and steel. This is in connection to the tariffs President Trump imposed on steel and aluminum, which affects NAFTA countries Mexico and Canada.

The effects will alter the relationship on NAFTA; one which President Trump has already expressed is in unfair to American workers. He has stated he either wants to renegotiate a fair agreement amongst the NAFTA countries (USA, Canada, Mexico) or independently negotiate with Canada and Mexico, as  separate individual countries. Mexico and Canada have both denounced such a proposal by Trump.

This is coming at a critical time for NAFTA, as Mexico gears for presidential elections on July 1, 2018 and US congressional midterm elections are in November 2018. -SB

 

HAPPY VETERANS DAY TO ALL OUR SERVICE MEN & SERVICE WOMAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Happy Veteran’s Day to our troops and to those who have served; and whom continue to serve for our freedom, rights, liberties, and our pursuit of happiness, here in the USA & around the globe. Thank you dearly and salute….

-May God Continue To Bless The United States of America. -SB

Yo-Yo’s of Life: The Threads Of Technology Displacement In My Latest Novel And How The Problems Of The Millenniums Are Rooted Decades In The Past.

By: James Lyman BSAE, BSEE, MSSM

Economic & Finance Report

I just finished my fourth fictional novel under my pen name R.K.O. Timoshenko (all available on amazon.com) that is set in the mid 1970’s, when the roots of technology displacement of people was becoming prevalent. There are three characters, Heather who is a liberal arts major having been through a very abusive marriage and acrimonious divorce. Her landlord John, who is an engineer in the Air Force returning to the university to study electronics and computers, intent on joining the exploding computer revolution. And finally, the third main character, the MITS Altair 8800, the world’s first personal computer two years before the famous Apple II and TRS-80.

As a psychology major, Heather is very much an alien, or one who so fails to advance technologically that they become aliens in their homeland. She and John are about as opposite as people can be, plus having faulty perceptions of each other from their senior year together in highschool. But years later, circumstances bring them together as tenant and landlord while both attend university. In discussing the problems for women and the woman’s liberation movement with her teacher Gloria, Heather complains that the movement is geared to the professional woman, the upper 5% of the American woman population. That the movement seems to look down on woman working as secretaries and typist, which then comprised about one third the jobs that woman worked at. She then poses the question of what will the woman’s

movement do if these computer boys should invent a machine that replaces the secretary/typist thus eliminating a third of the jobs for woman, not realizing she has accurately forecasted the future for so many woman. That in just a few more months, the first wordprocessor program for small computers would appear, and with the explosive growth of low cost personal computers, all those jobs would disappear in a decade. That in less than ten years, the US Department of Labor would announce they were drastically reducing their career forecast for secretary/typist because of the unforseen impact of new technologies – the word processor with low cost computers.

The computer boys had indeed replaced one third of the jobs for American women.

And as is so often the case, the ‘Gloria’s’ have no answers. But this is just one example of jobs being eliminate by low cost computers, for in the factories, robots where becoming more prevalent and so were also eliminating many of those good paying manufacturing jobs for the men. I recently saw a news article about a California manufacture of high end flashlights, the factory owner complaining that since he had to use two parts made in China, he couldn’t put “Made in America” on the label, which was the point of the news report. But they showed pictures of the factory, which employed about 300 people, and it was huge! It looked like about three aircraft hangers set end to end, and as far as you could see, there was line after line of green metal cabinets. Little industrial sheet metal houses … where the machine robots lives! There was only one or two humans walking the aisles and cross walkways. It’s a factory, like so many other American factories, where most of the 0employees0 are machines.

It’s been that way across the spectrum of both manufacturing and business in general, and this process continues today, changing the world and future for the millenniums because automation and technology displacement is now on the middle and upper income white collar workers. Since the economic crash in 2007, there has been numenius news reports of middle and upper level management in the six figures income, who have been laid off. Where once they could find new jobs in a few days to weeks, they have gone months, even years without a nibble. And in those reports, the people express confusion why they can’t find new jobs. This is the result of another artifact of technology displacement called “Organizational Innovation” as described in the new book “Race Against the Machine” 1 where advancements in communications and computers have allowed corporations to reorganize themselves to do the work with fewer skilled management people.

Automation and technology displacement is no longer some poor sod working down on the factory floor, for that’s now all done and past tense. It’s now the higher level, higher paid workers who are the targets of automation.

It was just by happenstance that the woman character Heather foretold what would happen to so many women, and how the woman’s movement, which she supported, would have little effect on improving the station of woman in American society simple because it did not recognize and address the growing problem of technology displacement for both men and woman. You can’t solve problems by ignoring major components of a problem.

In the book, computers are used to show the pronounced gulf between ‘Heather the alien’ and

‘John the technologist’, which is the bases for their conflict and incompatibility. They are going in different directions in life, with Heather trying to understand just what this incompatibility really is, while John is absorbed in understanding and enjoying the emerging digital electronics technology. But despite their fundamental differences, living close together intertwines their lives more and more, until slowly they become one as a married couple.

While this story is set in 1975-6, it continues unabated today for the millenniums as they struggle for a future of their own.

1) “Race Against the Machine”, Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee, Digital Frontier Press, Lexington, Massachusetts, 2011, p56.

SEPTEMBER 11, 2017: WE WILL NEVER FORGET!!!!!!!!!!!!!

16 Years ago Americans lives had drastically changed and the “War on Terrorism” had just begun. September 11 will be a day that will deeply be intertwined in American history and present the future of American identity…

The United States remembers all the heros who served the country that day and lost thier lives, trying to protect the liberties and freedoms that makes the USA so unique and  dynamic. WE WILL NEVER FORGET!!!! -SB

WHITE HOUSE MANUFACTURING & STRATEGIC POLICY COUNCILS NO MORE EXISTENT…………

By: Economic & Finance Report

The White House Strategic Policy & Manufacturing  Councils have disbanded. Both Councils were set up by President Trump and the White House, for top level executives in the business spectrum, to bring forth and initiate ideas to help bring jobs to American workers.

Many CEOs of the Councils stepped down because of the handling of the situation that occurred in Charlottesville, Virginia on Saturday August 12, 2017. Many of the CEO were angered and bothered; on how the President confronted the situation via news conference; in which he waited a few days, to speak on the dire situation. The CEO’s felt uneasy and uncomfortable about how the President handled the racial tensions that occurred in Charlottesville, Virginia that weekend of August 12, 2017.

The Manufacturing & Strategic-Policy Councils were set up to assist and advise the President on job creation initiatives for working Americans, and to implement job creation policies in the United States.-SB