23 September 2020

1) After Amazon’s Prime Day was postponed by the virus in July, it was tentatively reset for the fourth quarter. Amazon didn’t want their Prime Day to overlap with Black Friday, which set an upper limit to the date, so now the company is planning for the 13th and 14th of October. Prime Day is a very big retail day for Amazon, with their 2019 Prime Day grossing about $6 billion dollars in sales.

2) Another round of stimulus still remains on the burner and with the fall elections now closing in, both sides are saying they want a new stimulus bill with a second direct payment to the people. But the bill remains in limbo with no agreement on the details of the bill. The question on everyone’s minds is the direct payment checks to the people and how much they will be. No settlement on that question, but the rumors are this one will be based on each person’s income instead of the single lump sum of last time, with an upper limit of $1,200 per individuals. Only time will tell how much, or even if there is a personal payment, because if not passed before the elections, the possibility of passing will rapidly decrease.

3) The coronavirus has been a big stimulus for e-commerce from the stay at home shopping it stimulated, but surprisingly the home shopping boom has also been a boom for the shipping industry. Those huge ocean going ships stacked high with intermodal containers, their transpacific sea freight shipping rates have been sent to the highest on record, helping the container shipping industry in Asia. Household appliances imports have jumped 51% in August from last year, climbing for a third consecutive month. Shipments of computers, notebooks and other associated electronic gadgets has soared 169%. This increase consumer demand has shipping rates almost triple from this year’s low in March, when the pandemic led to border closures and a near halt in economic activity. With much of the world’s people housebound, the demand for electronic goods and do-it-yourself items has skyrocketed. There is also the coming Christmas holidays and therefore the stocking up in anticipation of sales.

4) Stock market closings for – 22 SEP 20:

Dow 27,288.18 up 140.48
Nasdaq 10,963.64 up 184.84
S&P 500 3,315.57 up 34.51

10 Year Yield: down at 0.66%

Oil: down at $39.55

18 September 2020

1) The batteries in electric cars don’t last forever, so therefore they must be replaced from time to time. That leaves defunct batteries which must be disposed of. One company engaged in the recovery and recycling of electric vehicle batteries, as well as other lithium-ion batteries and e-waste, is Redwood Materials run by former Tesla executive Mr. Staubel. Amazon is investing in Redwood Materials as part of Amazon’s $2 billion dollar Climate Pledge Fund. The retail giant Amazon is a major consumer of batteries including its own growing fleet of electric logistics vehicles. In recycling, the company is already recovering most of the metal, lithium, nickel and cobalt from batteries.
2) Some are calling for publicly owned companies to include ‘climate related risks’, since climate change will have a major effect on a companies’ profits and the value of their assets. Therefore, investors want companies to publish these factors in their annual financial reports in accordance to the guide lines from the International Accounting Standards Board. Accounting standards play a key role in calculation of a company’s profits, solvency and remunerate senior executives. Therefore, this information is relevant when judging a company’s likely prospects.
3) Commercial properties in the Asia-Pacific arena is suffering as investors flee the market. Global investors have reduced their spending on commercial real estate in the Asia Pacific area disproportionately compared with other world areas. The total volume of commercial property acquisitions, such as office, retail and hotels, is about 65% of levels in the last two years. The shift is due in part from the Convid-19 crisis. Another fear is the increasing troubles from China across the realm, as China strives to dominate the world by 2050.
4) Stock market closings for – 17 SEP 20:
Dow 27,901.98 down 130.40
Nasdaq 10,910.28 down 140.19
S&P 500 3,357.01 down 28.48
10 Year Yield: down at 0.68%
Oil: up at $40.96

15 September 2020

1) The old, almost extinct vinyl record album technology for music has surpassed the newer high technology CD music media this year, by selling $129.9 million compared to $232.1 million dollars for vinyl records. This is the first time vinyl has outsold CDs since the 1980’s. About 8.8 million records were sold with 10.2 million CDs, so number wise CD’s are still ahead. Overall, the music industry now is center on digital downloads, digital subscription and streaming services such as Spotify, Apple Music and YouTube with revenues up 12% overall. The recorded music for the first six months of 2020 was $5.6 billion dollars so combined vinyl and CD’s are just a small fraction of the total business.

2) Amazon is hiring again expecting to fill 100,000 part time and full time openings across the U.S. and Canada. This is in addition to 33,000 technology and corporate jobs announced just a week ago, many paying six figure salaries. The 100,000 labor jobs pay at least $15 an hour with a $1,000 sign up bonuses in some cities. Amazon is opening 100 new buildings this month because of the pandemic fueled sales surge with increase home delivery, as shopping habits shift to e-commerce. Market value for Amazon is now at $1.6 trillion dollars and continues climbing.

3) Oil giant BP (British Petroleum) says the demand for oil may have peaked last year, that global market for crude oil might never recover from the coronavirus pandemic. The company considers there are three scenarios for energy demand, all of which forecast a decline in demand for oil over the next thirty years. 1) ‘Business as usual’ oil demand increases slightly after the pandemic crisis passes, then plateaus around 2025 finally it declines after 2030. 2) Governments take more aggressive steps to curb carbon emissions, 3) there are significant shifts in societal behavior, both leading to a decline in oil demand. All point to a shift in the world economic system with a significant decline in growth for many countries.

4) Stock market closings for – 14 SEP 20:

Dow 27,993.33 up 327.69
Nasdaq 11,056.65 up 203.11
S&P 500 3,383.54 up 42.57

10 Year Yield: unchanged at 0.67%

Oil: down at $37.38

14 September 2020

1) With 13 million Americans unemployed and their unemployment benefits running out, many will have only seasonal jobs to turn to. But with such wide spread unemployment, getting hired for seasonal work wont be easy. With the coming holidays, seasonal jobs traditionally mushroom with major companies already hosting hiring events to fulfill their temporary ranks. Companies like Michael’s will hire over 16,000 temporary people, with UPS expecting to hire over 100,000 for holiday package delivery. Retailers doing e-commerce, such as Amazon or Walmart are expected to need many seasonal workers and therefore are good places for job seekers to apply.

2) Fears are growing that the coronavirus crisis could cause a double dip recession, that the recession could end up looking like a roller coaster of ups and downs. The upsurge in virus cases is eroding consumer confidence and leading to renewed limits on certain businesses. Economic recovery can bloom then fade away only to repeat again. Some economic factors point to a recovery, yet others point downwards, with the picture further complicated by the ‘what ifs’ of the coronavirus and just how it will play out, where a second wave of the virus could be just as economically disruptive as the first one, maybe even more so. Additionally, a significant portion of the economy has been destroyed. Half the businesses in America are small businesses and at the start of the crisis, about half of those had cash reserves of just fifteen days or less . . . meaning by now they have gone bust! No one knows what the repercussion from such massive losses of business will ultimately have on the economy in general.

3) Mechanical breakdown insurance, which isn’t an extended warranty, but rather is insurance that pays for mechanical auto repairs of a car’s power train, much as accident insurance pays for the repair of body damage. It will have some amount for a deductible, then pays the remainder of a mechanic’s bill for repair, both labor and parts. Usually, any mechanic can be used. Most major insurance companies who offer auto insurance will also offer breakdown insurance too. Prices range from $20 to $100 a year.

4) Stock market closings for – 11 SEP 20:

Dow 27,665.64 up 131.06
Nasdaq 10,853.54 down 66.05
S&P 500 3,340.97 up 1.78

10 Year Yield: down at 0.67%

Oil: up at $37.39

2 September 2020

1) Five American companies make up 24% of the S&P 500 Index, the big high tech companies Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook and Alphabet. These five companies made up 17% of the index at the start of the year. This makes a significant part of American net worth and security for retirement dependent on just a handful of stocks, which makes some financial advisers nervous having their eggs in too few baskets. One hiccup in the technology sector could mean major losses across the board.

2) Another shooting of a young black man Monday in South Los Angeles has sparked more protest that could lead to more city rioting. The man was stopped for violating vehicle codes, but then ran, with the police in hot pursuit. When police caught up with him, he punched one policeman in the face at which time a semiautomatic pistol dropped out causing both policemen to open fired. Since the victim didn’t have the weapon in hand, nor was it ever pointed at either police officers, so there are questions about the shooting. So far, protests have been peaceful.

3) The U.S. Justice Department is investigating the protest leaders and their funding in Portland and other cities for possible criminal activity. With riots and civil unrest now at a hundred days, and significant monetary loses have been occurred, questions are being raised about who is behind the well organized protesters seemingly intent on violent confrontation. Of especial interest is the loosely organized far left Antifa and the Black Lives Matter, and who is ultimately controlling their operations through funding and why.

4) Stock market closings for – 1 SEP 20:

Dow 28,645.66 up 215.61
Nasdaq 11,939.67 up 164.21
S&P 500 3,526.65 up 26.34

10 Year Yield: down at 0.67%

Oil: up at $43.01

1 September 2020

1) In its quest to deliver packages to customers, Amazon has received FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) approval for its Amazon’s Prime Air, an aerial package delivery system using drones. This allows Amazon to operate unmanned aerial drones in the US on a trial basis. This means the aerial robots can deliver packages outside the operator’s visual line of sight. Amazon announced it’s aerial drone plans in 2013, but hardware and safety issues have been major challenges for the company, with the first successful drone delivery in 2016. The robot aircraft are helicopter like machines that can hover and fly forward powered by electricity with a range of 15 miles. They can deliver packages weighing under five pounds in 30 minutes or less.

2) United Airlines is abandoning its domestic flight change fees forever, so if you have to change your plans and need to change your flights, it no longer will cost you. Previously, a change fee cost the consumer $200 for all economy and premium cabin tickets within the U.S. Furthermore, there’s no limit on how many times you can adjust your flight for free. Additionally, customers can get same day standby for free, which had cost $75, starting on January 2021.

3) As trade relations with China worsen, large companies are pulling out of Red China. These are big name companies known to virtually everyone such as Hasbro, Nike, Apple, Google/Alphabet, Dell, HP, Samsung, LG Electronics, Stanley Black & Decker, Zoom, Intel, Old Navy/Gap, Sharp, Adidas, Puma, Kia Motors, Sony, Nintendo and Hyundia Motors as well as lesser know companies. Reasons cited are the disrupted supply chains, the ongoing US-China trade war with little resolution in the near future, tariffs on Chinese exports so companies are moving to other Asian countries to export from there under a different country name. Also fears of inadvertently using slave labor (political reeducation inmates) leaving a company embroiled in political controversy domestically, with adverse effects on their sales.

4) Stock market closings for – 31 AUG 20:

Dow 28,430.05 down 223.82
Nasdaq 11,775.46 up 79.82
S&P 500 3,500.31 down 7.70

10 Year Yield: down at 0.69%

Oil: down at $42.82

31 August 2020

1) The dreaded coronavirus seems to be on the rise again in Europe, with some European countries experiencing an increase of new cases, but this time with fewer deaths. This resurgence of recent weeks, has not forced as many people into medical wards as last spring. However, the increase of Convid-19 is widespread, unsettling people who hoped the worst was behind them. So far, the rise in cases is in France, Germany and Spain, with Spain hit particularly hard. Europe had just started their schools for the new academic year.

2) The E-commerce giant Amazon has just opened its first ‘shop-in-person’ grocery store under its own name. The new store in the Los Angeles suburb of Woodland Hills, is a traditional physical store open from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. PST. But the store has lots of high-tech touches such as a new feature called Dash Cart which allows you to use Alexa. This allows the customer to create a shopping list in advance then be guided around the store to those items on the list. The store uses cashierless checkout, so there isn’t any line to wait in. The customer has the option of using their Amazon account and Prime membership to order and get free delivery. Amazon is soon opening additional stores in other cities.

3) One of the most powerful storms to ever hit the US Gulf Coast, Hurricane Laura has left the usual damage and destruction, but having missed the Houston and New Orleans areas, caused far less damage than it could have. The death toll was six people and monetary damages are estimated to be between $8 billion and $12 billion dollars, most of the loss in Louisiana with only about $500 million dollars in Texas. The total economic cost from damaged structures and closed businesses is estimated to be about $20 billion dollars.

4) Stock market closings for – 28 AUG 20:

Dow 28,653.87 up 161.60
Nasdaq 11,695.63 up 70.30
S&P 500 3,508.01 up 23.46

10 Year Yield: down at 0.73%

Oil: down at $42.93

11 August 2020

1) Both Japan and China are building up their military forces for possible future contest over Pacific islands. This is another sign of China’s increasing contentious relations with neighbors, in particular Japan over disputes of several islands in the East China Sea. This is necessitating the buildup of military forces to approach, capture and defend islands. So this means a build up of Marine forces, which both countries are in the process of doing. This includes amphibious armored vehicles and self propelled artillery. U.S. intelligence consider the Chinese Marines to be fully amphibious and able to use combined arms tactics and multiple avenues of approach. This includes building a blue water navy with well over 300 vessels. In response, Japan is starting up its first Marine unit since World War II, modeled after the U.S. Marine Corps, to defend its southern islands. This buildup means massive expansions which neither country’s economies are able to tolerate with the worsening world economy.

2) Boeing aircraft manufacture’s troubles continue to get worst with the loss 737 MAX orders now over 400 and stymied shipments of its 787 Dreamliner because of the world pandemic. Last month, Boeing delivered just four jetliners while also booking zero new orders. Their total stockpile of orders was 4,496 aircraft at the end of July, which is down 1.2% from June. There is the risk that Boeing will have to halt 787 production to preserve cash. Most airline companies have grounded a significant portion of their fleets and are operating only a fraction of their pre-pandemic schedules.

3) Instacart, the young food delivery service, is partnering with Walmart, Amazon’s biggest competitor, to bring Walmart one day delivery service. This will make thousands of items, from groceries to home decor and improvement, personal care and electronics go from Walmart stores to customers’ doors as fast as an hour. This is another ratchetting up of the retail business, when many big name retailers are floundering and some going under. A fundamental change in the way Americans are buying things for their everyday lives is occurring.

4) Stock market closings for – 11 AUG 20:

Dow 27,686.91 down 104.53
Nasdaq 10,782.82 down 185.53
S&P 500 3,333.69 down 26.78

10 Year Yield: up at 0.66%

Oil: down at $41.66

11 August 2020

1) Online retailer giant Amazon is considering taking over closed department stores in some malls to use as warehouses in their distribution system. Amazon is in talks with Simon Property Group, America’s largest mall owner, to convert J.C. Penny and Sears stores into distribution hubs for package delivery. Simon malls have 63 J.C. Penny and 11 Sears stores available. With many traditional brick-and-mortar stores in collapse, such a deal would make sense for both Amazon and Simon. Amazon is looking for more space closer to where customers live to help with its one day delivery strategy, while Simon needs cash rich tenants to bolster their business.

2) A report that outlines the three potential future movies in the Star Trek franchise has been released. The movies for Star Trek follow-on’s have been in limbo since the 2016’s Star Trek Beyond. There are three potential projects being considered for possible production, including a Tarantino’s Star Trek movie. The first movie by Noah Hawley (Fargo and Legion creator) is centered on a pandemic story line using a brand new cast, but is now on pause. The second is a movie by Tarantino, of Pulp Fiction fame, as writer, but not necessary directing it. Something of a take on of a prior Star Trek episode, it would be largely an earthbound 1930’s gangster setting. The third is a far more traditional Star Trek with the recent stars Chris Pine and Zachary Quinto. The next few weeks is expected to yield the fate of the Star Trek franchise.

3) Latest job numbers show 1.8 million new jobs created last month to give a 10.2% unemployment rate. This is another coming down of the rate, a good sign for the economy. This leaves 43% unemployed of the 22 million people who lost their jobs from the pandemic, so the economy is still a long way from a full recovery. Fears are that it will be a long time before full recovery, what with the large number of small businesses that have succumb to the Covid-19 crisis with subsequent loss of jobs. The continual struggling price of oil indicates a still weak international economy.

4) Stock market closings for – 10 AUG 20:

Dow 27,791.44 up 357.96
Nasdaq 10,968.36 down 42.63
S&P 500 3,360.47 up 9.19

10 Year Yield: up at 0.57%

Oil: up at $41.99

3 August 2020

1) Another sign of how badly the pandemic has wrecked the world economy is the huge losses that Exxon Mobil and Chevron have reported for the second quarter. The losses were even worst than Wall Street expected. Both stocks were the biggest losers in the Dow. Exxon lost $1.1 billion dollars with Chevron losing $8.3billion dollars. Oil is a principle component in a modern economy, and therefore a strong indicator of how an economy is doing.

2) Another internet satellite system has been approved by the FCC (Federal Communications Commission). Amazon’s Project Kuiper is a network in the sky of 3,236 satellites which will provide broadband internet access with the restriction that it doesn’t interfere with previously authorized satellite ventures. Amazon plans to invest $10 billion dollars in the project to compete with SpaceX, OneWeb and Telesat systems. Service will begin once the first 578 satellites have been launched. It’s expected service will begin sometime before 2026.

3) High tech giant Google has announced they are formally extending work from home until the summer of 2021. The extension will affect about 200,000 employees to include contractors and full time workers, including operations off shore. Most of the other tech companies have set at home working until the end of this year, but Google’s announcement fuels speculation if other companies will follow suit and extend their at home work schedule. Google was one of the first companies to implement work at home policy in an effort to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

4) Stock market closings for – 31 JUL 20:

Dow 26,428.32 +114.67 +0.44%
Nasdaq 10,745.28 +157.46 +1.49%
S&P 500 3,271.12 +24.90 +0.77%

10 Year Yield: 0.54% -0.00 —

Oil: down at $40.43