18 January 2021

1) One Chinese province, Heilongjiang, with more than 37 million, has declared an emergency state to snuff out a handful of Covid-19 cases, as China moves decisively to contain infections. China had largely brought the coronavirus under control since its emergence in Wuhan late in 2019, however in recent weeks China has seen smatterings of cases, prompting localize lock downs, immediate travel restrictions and widespread testing of tens of millions of people. China is trying to squash the virus ahead of next month’s Lunar New Year festival, when hundreds of millions of people are due to travel across the country. Those highly anticipated annual journeys are often the only time for many migrant workers to see their families.

2) Biden has promised to extend the pause on student loan payments during his first day in office. Here are other steps the new administration could take for student debt relief. Forgiving $10,000 in student loan debt for each person, but it’s unclear of the time frame to do so. Also, it is unclear on whether Biden can use executive powers to cancel student debt or if only the Congress can do it. On day one Biden will direct the Department of Education to extend the student loan forbearance program, the first promise the president-elect has made in combating the $1.6 trillion student debt crisis. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is pushing for $50,000 to be forgiven.

3) Scientist warns that civilization is on the precipice of a ‘ghastly future’ that humanity has gravely underestimated the effects of biodiversity decline, climate change, and pollution. A review of over 150 studies finds the central problems we face are economic and political systems centered around unsustainable human consumption and population growth at the expense of all else. Biodiversity loss started some 11,000 years with the start of agriculture, which has vastly accelerated in recent centuries due to ever-worsening pressures placed on natural ecosystems. With a world population of 7.5 billion, which is expected to peak at 10 billion, that is worsening existing food insecurity, soil degradation, biodiversity decline, pollution, social inequality, and regional conflicts. Food production is sustained with the increasing use of fossil fuels and petrochemicals. Humanity is running an ecological Ponzi scheme in which society robs nature and future generations to pay for boosting incomes in the short term, all supported with petrochemicals. Half the large mammals in the world are humans, the other half are the domestic animals providing humanity with subsistence. All the other large mammals fit into just a 5% sliver.

4) Stock market closings for – 15 JAN 21:

Dow 30,814.26 down by 177.26
Nasdaq 12,998.50 down by 114.14
S&P 500 3,768.25 down by 27.29

10 Year Yield: down at 1.10%

Oil: down at $52.04

15 January 2021

1) As Joe Biden approaches taking office, the question of a third stimulus check is already open, but one point is the amount, either $2,000 or $1,400. With $600 checks already being dispersed, the question expands to having the second and third payments combined to total of up to $2,600. In turn , Biden may propose a third stimulus check for $1,400 per eligible adult, for a total of $2,000 between the two payments. But America isn’t the only nation amassing huge national debts with cash back programs to its citizens. From small third world nations to the most advance western nations, a large number of nations have stimulus payments in an attempt to salvage their economies, several paying more per person than America. There has been little to no concern of how these national debts will be paid back, leaving a growing instability of the world economic system. If one of these indebted nations should start collapsing, the other economies could then be pulled down and collapse too. Like a gaggle of standing dominos, one falls, knocks down more, who in turn knocks down more until the whole comes tumbling down resulting in disaster.

2) Even with majorities in the house and senate, the new president Biden faces a hard time getting his Covid relief bill passed. This could further be hindered if the Senate becomes embroiled in an impeachment trial of President Trump and the confirmation of Biden’s Cabinet in the early days of his administration. Typically, a new president has his first hundred days, the honeymoon time, when the Congress is most willing to support and pass the legislation the new president proposes. But continuing actions and debates against Trump will eat into that honeymoon, plus distracting by the press away from the president, leaving Biden ‘holding the bag – possibly empty’.

3) China joins the rush to driverless cars, with the Chinese startup company WeRide raising $310 million dollars in funding as the race to robot cars heats up. This funding and new investors will give the company the strategic resources to commercialize self-driving technology. The company says it will launch trial operations for their Mini Robobuses immediately. WeRide valuation is estimated to top $5 billion. Other companies including search giant Baidu, start-up AutoX and ride-hailing firm Didi, who are competing in the same space.

4) Stock market closings for – 14 JAN 21:
Dow 30,991.52 down by 68.95
Nasdaq 13,112.64 down by 16.31
S&P 500 3,795.54 down by 14.30
10 Year Yield: up at 1.13%
Oil: up at $53.80

14 January 2021

1) Bitcoin, the digital currency, hit an all time high of $41,000 per coin, but Bitcoin as well as the other cryptocurrencies, has a history of volatility and is unregulated. After hitting a record high in December of 2017, Bitcoin plunged 50% the first month of 2018. There are now warnings that Bitcoin is a massive bubble waiting to collapse in the near future. There are upsides to cryptocurrencies, such as the need to not deal with a bank, but it also makes the currency’s future uncertain. The biggest risk to owning Bitcoin is the possibility of being banned, and this has already been done with other cryptocurrencies. The IRS considers Bitcoin property, not currency, which means there are tax consequences. If you hold the bitcoin for a year or less, any trading profits are taxed as short-term gains, at the same rates as ordinary income. But if you hold it for more than a year, your profits are taxed as long-term capital gains, at rates of 0% to 20% in 2021 depending on your income level. The IRS has more recently been going after cryptocurrency holders who aren’t reporting their digital currencies.

2) Fears of a Bitcoin bubble bursting increased as Bitcoin fell with $170 billion dollars wiped out in 24 hours as Bitcoin pulls back by over 11% from a day earlier to $35,828.06. The sell off of cryptocurrencies comes after a huge rally and perhaps signaling some profit-taking from investors. The $40,000 mark could have been a trigger for profit-taking.

3) Americans are asking what really happens when there’s a 50-50 split in the senate? With the vice president a democrat, the democrats hold the narrowest possible majority which leaves some major obstacles and mine fields for the party. The senate cloture rule requires 60 members to end debate and vote on most topics, which in practice will allow the republican to filibuster much of the democrats’ legislative agenda. This is how the 50-50 split is likely to work in real life, the first hurdle is the organizing resolution, which determines everything from committee membership and staff budgets, to who gets the best office space. But in these hyper-partisan times, agreeing on even the rules of the road may be tricky. In theory, senate democrats could change the cloture rule and abandon the need for 60 votes, which would kill the filibuster. There will be further problems when the votes are not along party lines, and senators vote their minds.

4) Stock market closings for – 13 JAN 21:

Dow 31,060.47 down by 8.22
Nasdaq 13,128.95 up by 56.52
S&P 500 3,809.84 up by 8.65

10 Year Yield: down at 1.09%

Oil: down at $52.87

13 January 2021

1) Reports are that Biden will unveil plans to spend trillions of dollars in pandemic and economic relief money this next week. Biden is introducing several members of his economic team, after data shows the U.S. economy has lost jobs for the first time in eight months as a resurgent COVID-19 pandemic has again shuttered restaurants and other businesses. Biden is calling for raising the minimum wage to $15, and for sending out $2,000 in direct cash payments. Biden claims that economic research confirms that with today’s crisis, especially with such low interest rates, taking immediate action, even with deficit financing , is going to help the economy. Biden also say they are looking into other economic relief actions that can be taken unilaterally, including extending a pause on repayments of federal student loans.

2) US naval aircraft carrier groups still rule the seas, but both Russia and China have plans to change that as they strive to expand their blue water navies, by developing new weapons that could threaten America’s dominance. For instance, it is reported that China launched two ballistic missiles that hit a moving target ship in the South China Sea thousands of miles from their launch sites. The Russian navy conducted its third test launch of it’s hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile that was launched from a frigate. The missile reached a speed of Mach 8 before hitting a target more than 200 miles away. These tests are the latest indication that American aircraft carriers, long viewed as kings of the seas, may soon face a real threat to their existence.

3) Iran has told South Korea not to politicize the seizure of their vessel, while demanding the release of $7 billion dollars in funds frozen amid U.S. sanctions. Additionally, Iran has denied all allegations that the seizing of South Korea’s tanker and its 20-member crew amounted to hostage taking, claiming instead it was Seoul who was holding Iran’s funds hostage. The vessel was seized based on an Iranian court order for ‘environmental pollution’, however, the ship’s Busan-based operator, said there was nothing to indicate that before the seizure of the vessel that Iranian authorities were probing possible violations of environmental rules.

4) Stock market closings for – 12 JAN 21:

Dow 31,068.69 up by 60.00
Nasdaq 13,072.43 up by 36.00
S&P 500 3,801.19 up by 1.58

10 Year Yield: up at 1.14%

Oil: up at $53.38

12 January 2021

1) The cryptocurrency Bitcoin plummets the most since March as a stronger dollar and investor nerves strip off nearly $140 billion in the cryptocurrency market cap, renewing fears that Bitcoin may be a bubble waiting to burst. But Bitcoin is still up roughly 89% over the past month. Other cryptocurrency coins, such as XRP and Litecoin, have shed about 18% each. Bitcoin hit a record high last week above $41,000, driven by the combination a weaker dollar, economic optimism, and a wave of bullish sentiment toward cryptocurrencies as big-name investors and investment banks touted a potential for huge gains this year, with the stronger dollar and higher bond yields triggering a plunge in Bitcoin and gold prices.

2) Trump has been permanently barred from the platform Twitter, resulting in$5 billion dollars in losses in market value, with Twitter stock dropping after the barring of the President. Twitter stated they permanently suspended the account due to the risk of further incitement of violence. Trump, who had about 88 million followers, generated enormous publicity for the platform with his controversial and incendiary tweets over the past six years. As a result, Twitter’s stock fell as much as 12% on Monday thus the decline of $5 billion dollars from Twitter’s market capitalization. Investors are worried that the Trump ban will erode interest in the platform and lead to boycotts among those who see the decision as politically motivated and a way to silence a major conservative voice.

3) Fears are growing that a bigger stimulus may be seen as the ‘peak of this bubble’ resulting in a market correction or worst. Some think that with the Democrats set to take control of both the House and Senate, perhaps President-elect Joe Biden will be less likely to spook markets with tax ambitions. Biden has promised $2,000 stimulus checks if the Senate turned blue, so now the question is what will happen? For millions of Americans, it’s been a painful waiting game already, they having subsisted with minimum money since losing their jobs from the pandemic. Joe Biden made the promise that if Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock turned the senate blue that would end the block in Washington and allow the $2,000 stimulus checks to immediately go out the door to people who are in real trouble.

4) Stock market closings for – 11 JAN 21:

Dow 31,008.69 down by 89.28
Nasdaq 13,036.43 down by 165.54
S&P 500 3,799.61 down by 25.07

10 Year Yield: up at 1.13%

Oil: down at $52.18

11 January 2021

1) Boeing Aircraft Co. has reached a $2.5 billion dollar agreement to settle the criminal charge that it defrauded the U.S. government by concealing information about the troubled 737 MAX. This is the ill-fated jet airliner involved in two fatal crashes that killed 346 people. The airline manufacturer entered into a deferred prosecution agreement and in turn, the Justice Department will dismiss the charge against Boeing. This settlement caps a two-year criminal investigation into the two MAX crashes. This settlement will have no bearing on any pending civil litigation. In addition, Boeing will pay a $243.6 million criminal penalty. With the penalty and the fund for relatives, Boeing says it expects to pay an additional $743.6 million dollars for the fourth quarter of 2020.

2) The cryptocurrency Bitcoin is at an all-time high in 2021, one coin now worth $36,000. It has doubled its value in 30 days. Bitcoin is the first and biggest cryptocurrency, which started up in January 2009, and eleven years after its invention, the total value of all Bitcoins in the world is around $359 billion. The Bitcoins are long, unbreakable codes stored in clouds or computers. Bitcoins were invented at the height of the 2008-9 financial crisis. The idea is a type of money that didn’t depend on the traditional banking systems. Cryptocurrency is popular in countries with inflation.

3) Venture capital backed companies in the United States raised nearly $130 billion dollars last year, setting a record despite the COVID-19 pandemic, up 14% from 2019, while the number of deals is down 9% to 6,022. The so-called mega-rounds, which are deals that are $100 million dollars or higher, also hit a record amount and number, with $63 billion dollars raised in 318 deals. However, there is a big drop in the very early stage investment called the seed money stage. The trend of big investments doesn’t look like it will slow in 2021 as there is a lot of capital chasing investments. It’s expected that 2021 is going to be a banner year for many tech companies.

4) Stock market closings for – 8 JAN 21:

Dow 31,097.97 up by 56.84
Nasdaq 13,201.98 up by 134.50
S&P 500 3,824.68 up by 20.89

10 Year Yield: up at 1.10%

Oil: up at $52.73

The Real Truth of the Capital Riot!

A Corollary of War

A technologically advance people will displace a lesser people.
Which is what is actually happening now.

James Lyman BSAE, BSEE, MSSM

For ten years now, I have been studying and writing about the mechanics and driving forces of modern insurrections, in particular the threat of people losing their livelihood by technology displacement. AI (Artificial Intelligence) experts predict that in the next 15 to 25 years, half the jobs in America will disappear because of technology. This isn’t something new, for decades people have been pushed further and further down because of technology displacement. For years, politicians have bemoaned how wages of American workers are not increasing, the politicians being too poorly educated in a world of technology to appreciate that the low wages is because machines are doing the work. As seen on Wednesday, people are now ‘mad as hell’ and their fuze is growing dangerously short!

Watching the news and the ‘nonsensical dribble’ expounded in TV interviews shows just how ill prepared members of the Congress and governments are to address the problems now facing Americans. Just how very little real understanding senators and congressmen have of the problems so many Americans have and why they are so very angry! That’s also apparent by how you never hear a peep in the political discourse about obsolete people and how a preponderance of Americans have been, and continue to be, pushed out of the social economic system (the tent people) by technology- which is why so many of those Washington demonstrators are so angry.

While many of the Washington’s self appointed elitist condemn, denounce and even ridicule those angry people, when earlier they were surprisingly quiet about the riots of ANTIFA and BLM, showing how they’ve grossly failed to understand that those groups are actually one and the same as those Washington rioters. They are all people being pushed out of the social economic system . . . pushed out of the world they were born into and belonged to, pushed out the same way as the Native American’s were two centuries ago. Pushed out by an advanced technology people only to be left out in the cold. This is indicative of the quality and caliber of the people sent to govern us. Just as the Indian’s were very angry over being pushed out of their world, the demonstrators this last year are just as angry and filled with resolve to push back.

The bulk of the people in Congress are lawyers or political science studies, which I consider to be just a watered down lawyer. Reading the law is the education of John Adams, Thomas Jefferson and Abraham Lincoln. Reading the law is the education of the 16th, 17th and the 18th centuries, and that’s the crux of the problem! We have these 18th century people charged with leading us into the 21st century, but it is simply beyond their abilities. Indeed, most can’t ‘solve’ their way out of a wet paper bag, they are so poorly educated.

The gun control proposals made by many in Congress is proof positive of just how technologically backwards and behind so many of them are. The most primitive technology still prevalent in the world, and they seriously suggest they can actually control and limit it. The gun problem is a world problem with one gun for every four humans, and that’s because the manufacturing of guns is such a low level technology. Just like alcoholic beverages and elicit drugs, being unable to control the demand means the technology cannot be controlled. Another example is the ridiculously long bills the Congress passes, recent examples being the health reform act (Obama Care) with about 2,700 pages, and the stimulus bill with almost 6,000 pages. Both are indicative how little real thought was given to the problems, just a room filled with lawyers writing up a preponderance of legalese for other lawyers to litigate later.

This deficiency isn’t something new, for on the day of his retirement (1987), Speaker Tip O’Neill (a Democrat) stood on the steps of the Capital and warned about those ‘sound biters’, the new generation of politicians who were very skilled at using the news media for their political careers … and very skilled at little else. And everything he tried to warn us about has come true. We don’t have problem solvers to govern us, instead we have entertainers, celebrities and personalities, and recent history shows how very deficient they are at addressing the problems Americans face. With members of Congress vying for TV camera time to whine and complain about the state of the people, who they have been so instrumental in creating by their non-performance, it’s obvious that reform is needed, indeed necessary.

When asked what needs to be done about obsolescence of people and their displacement by technology, my answer is always the same:

‘Until you have a functioning government, you’re going to do absolutely NOTHING!’

To reform the government means creating an environment conducive to get the quality and caliber of people needed to address the obsolescence and displacement of Americans. That change means the adoption of four constitutional amendments, which are:

The Four Constitutional Amendments

1) A line item veto by the President of appropriation bills.
2) Term limitations for congressmen (5 terms) and senators        (2 terms).
3) An amendment forbidding anyone to participate in any election, in coin or in kind, for 
    which they cannot qualify to vote in.
4) The house and senate to have the power to fire any federal employee by a simple 
    majority vote, with no presidential veto.

An expanded description of these four amendments, as well as other articles about the displacement of Americans and their obsolescence by technology, can be found on my website www.peopleobsolete.com in both html and .pdf formats, which can be printed out on paper.

Despite all the condemnation and complaining of what happened at the Capital, nothing will be done with the people who presently govern us. The necessary balance for a modern government to function must be restored, and that means those four amendments. Otherwise, the real problems driving the street violence in America will only continue to grow and spread, irrespective what their political persuasion or believes may be. To solve the problem, the ‘forcing function’ of being pushed out of America must be addressed, and that means having the kind of people with the education and intellectual skills necessary to analyze and resolve problems . . . people who can come up with real viable solutions instead of the proverbial BS and sound bites that also cultivates the same dysfunctional state of the Forth Estate. To be able to create more than just illusions or images of ‘no problems’ or ‘problems solved’.

But the present situation presents the American people with the opportunity to get those amendments adopted. The present Washington environment, that has produced this and other recent riots by the negligence of Congress, is the swamp that President Trump promised and tried to drain, but without any actual structural changes, permanent draining is not possible. No amount of complaining or political rhetoric in front of television cameras is going to quell the anger which has been building for so many years.

So who’s to blamed for the DC riot? The Congress for failing to be the ‘Congress’ . . . for failing to do their job, for failing to work the problem! So . . .

It is only going to get worst!

8 Janury 2021

1) The price of oil advanced as shrinking U.S. crude inventories added to expectations of a tighter global supply outlook after Saudi Arabia surprised the markets by pledging to reduce production for the next two months. Gasoline demand is falling to its lowest level since late May, spelling trouble for refining margins as a tighter global crude balance and straggling demand crimp profits for processing a barrel of oil. Saudi Arabia has decided to reduce crude output in February and March as part of an OPEC+ supply agreement. With the outlook for crude oil supply suddenly looking tighter, the oil options markets have grown less bearish.

2) A top scientist explains why a more infectious coronavirus variant is a bigger problem than a deadlier strain, with the deadly coronavirus having now mutated. One variant, called B.1.1.7, is more infectious, and has forced the UK into national lock down, with the variant having also been discovered in several US states, as well as other countries around the world. However, the new variant does not appear to be more deadly, so existing vaccines should also work against it. A really severe disease that one person gets won’t necessarily have as much impact as a lesser disease which a huge number of people get. While not any more deadly the new mutant B.1.1.7 is much more infectious, and is to blame for the surging numbers of people infected, filling up UK hospitals that forced the national lock down. It is estimated to have a 71% higher growth rate than other variants.

3) North Korea’s supreme ruler Kim Jong Un has announced a military expansion, but it is unclear if Pyongyang plans to ramp up its nuclear program too. This could put pressure on the incoming Joe Biden administration just when it is most vulnerable. North Korea plans to boost its military capacities in defiance of international sanctions, as well as a new five-year economic plan, admitting the previous program has failed. It’s unclear just what the military expansion will involve.

4) Stock market closings for – 7 JAN 21:

Dow 31,041.13 up by 211.73
Nasdaq 13,067.48 up by 326.69
S&P 500 3,803.79 up by 55.65

10 Year Yield: up at 1.07%

Oil: up at $50.91

Oil: up at $50.48

7 January 2021

1) Chinese stocks listed in the U.S., including China Telecom Corp. and Pinduoduo Inc., fell on the prospect of further American sanctions. This decline was led by a group of Chinese telecommunications stocks after the New York Stock Exchange said it will delist three companies to comply with a U.S. executive order. While the companies are mostly traded in Asia, their stocks are also traded domestically. But an order from President Trump barred American investments in China-based firms that are affiliated with the military. However, there is now talk of the order being modified or even rescinded.

2) Reportedly, Chinese cities are going dark as the country faces shortages of coal, which is a major Australian export, as authorities limit power usage, citing the shortage of coal. Analysts said prices of the commodity in the country have shot up due to the reported crunch with some tying the shortages and blackouts to the unofficial ban on Australian coal. In turn, prices of the commodity have shot up due to the reported crunch. The reports also follow rising trade tensions between Beijing and Canberra, leading some analysts to tie the coal shortages and blackouts to the unofficial ban on Australian coal. Relations between the two nations have soured since last year because Australia supported an international inquiry into China’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Coal is just one in a growing list of Australian goods that China is targeting. China is the world’s largest coal consumer and its greatest source of coal imports was Australia.

3) Shale oil needs more than $50 a barrel to be profitable, something that is now a possibility because of Saudi Arabia’s pledge for a big supply cut in their oil production. But Joe Biden wants to ban new fracking in New Mexico, an area that has emerged as the ‘go-to’ spot for drillers desperate to squeeze as much crude from the ground without bleeding cash. The price was above $50 before the pandemic sent oil markets crashing, forcing over 40 explorers into bankrupt. It will take at least three months for shale producers to ramp up production, because that would involve decisions on new drilling and getting well-completion crews together, which puts their operations well into the new Biden administration.

4) Stock market closings for – 6 JAN 21:
Dow 30,829.40 up by 437.80
Nasdaq 12,740.79 down by 78.17
S&P 500 3,748.14 up by 21.28
10 Year Yield: up at 1.04%
Oil: up at $50.48